Southeast England & East Anglia, Weather Chat...July 1st 2015...

[Rain123]

We had some rain earlier this morning, but the main area of rain went north of here. No thunder

[Lauren]

Humid this afternoon/early evening. Very reminiscent of those humid evenings abroad that result in big thunderstorms. Sadly, we should be so lucky.

[Blessed Weather]

So having been excited for most of last week at a predicted good week this week for our camping trip it's now looking v unsettled! And what's more the rain is coming up from directly south as we move further south to our campsite in the New Forest! Hoping it's not as bad as some forecasts are predicting!This weekend was fab though! Wish us luck, camping with a 15mth old for the first time plus our other two!!!x

 

Oh dear weathergeek!! GFS seems to be firming up with its forecast of heavy rain sprawled across the south of the UK this Thursday. So don't pitch the tent in a dip or the bottom of the field and take an umbrella for running over to the shower block! Hope you still have a great time! 

 

GFS Precipitation Thurs 13th Aug 15.00  

[Harps]

Very humid and sticky today after a very warm night, car was showing 19C at 6 this morning. It tried to rain around lunch time but amounted to no more than some big drops sporadically falling for 10 minutes that didn't even wet the ground.

Grey skies all evening..

Edited August 10, 2015 by Harps

[frozencanals]

Evening all

 

Still very warm and sticky today, car showed 26.5 degrees at around 15:00 this afternoon in SE Essex.  The breeze here on the coast is a bit cooler now but still a great summer evening on the South Essex coast.

 

Cheers

 

FC

[Spikey M]

Thunderstorms looking likely for our region Thursday and Friday with humid air arriving. Storms have been thinking on the ground this summer (having been spoiled last year) so I am hopeful the models are right.

[stainesbloke]

Today was a grotty day weather wise here, grey skies pretty much all day with the odd sprinkle of rain and breezy. Reached 23C so didn't feel too chilly thankfully, helped by some humidity. Week ahead looks very messy looking at the fax charts....cloud? Storms? Rain? Warm? One thing that looks like it might be lacking is sunshine, boo!

[Jax]

turned out nice here in the end, OK it retained the humidity to a degree but overall it was not that bad once the rain departed.

[alexisj9]

Thunderstorms looking likely for our region Thursday and Friday with humid air arriving. Storms have been thinking on the ground this summer (having been spoiled last year) so I am hopeful the models are right.

Arriving, I'm not sure it's left yet, just went out in a t shirt and felt warm to the point of sweating, not even much breeze about to help things feel cool.

[nicol@]

Unwelcome cloud just arrived in East London as I was preparing to try snapping the meteor shower.

[lassie23]

Unwelcome cloud just arrived in East London as I was preparing to try snapping the meteor shower.

Still 16c here at 1.46am  Very warm again for sleeping  Too much light pollution to spot the Perseids meteor shower, which is a shame as there is not much cloud around.    Saw a rat eating a hazel nut instead.

Edited August 11, 2015 by lassie23

[stainesbloke]

Yucky dull, cloudy, cool morning here. At least no vile wind as yet. Temp 15C currently.

[Blessed Weather]

Grey start to the day here and 15.4C. Doesn't look like there will be much sun around today. Attention now switching to Thursday and heavy rain/storm watch duties!

 

Now within range of the NMM model and it shows moderately unstable atmosphere for Thurs evening into Fri morning, with some very heavy rain about. I reckon Surrey and Sussex looking the sweet spots:

 

CAPE & LI Thurs 19.00   Precip Fri 01.00  

 

The Met Office are on board. This mornings forecast from Carol:

 

   

[Captain Shortwave]

Afternoon, long time no see and all that jazz.

After the heat of Florida, it is nice to experience something a little cooler and drier. 

[Methuselah]

Grey start to the day here and 15.4C. Doesn't look like there will be much sun around today. Attention now switching to Thursday and heavy rain/storm watch duties!

 

Now within range of the NMM model and it shows moderately unstable atmosphere for Thurs evening into Fri morning, with some very heavy rain about. I reckon Surrey and Sussex looking the sweet spots:

 

CAPE & LI Thurs 19.00  NMM CAPE LI Thurs13Aug 19.00.png Precip Fri 01.00  NMM Precip Fri14Aug 01.00.png

 

The Met Office are on board. This mornings forecast from Carol:

 

20150811_074704_resized.jpg 20150811_074717_resized.jpg 20150811_074719_resized.jpg 20150811_074722_resized.jpg

Nice pair of humdingers?

[seaside 60]

Good to see the professionals get it wrong today.

Forecast was fine and sunny after early morning cloud.

Tonight was supposed to be clear but now looks as if it might rain a bit.

[Daniel*]

Good to see the professionals get it wrong today.

Forecast was fine and sunny after early morning cloud.

Tonight was supposed to be clear but now looks as if it might rain a bit.

I've not been overly impressed by them it's drizzling outside and seems very October like.

[Rain123]

Yuk, its drizzling now.   You wouldn't think that thunderstorms are less than 2 days away.

[seaside 60]

Quote.

Remaining dry with clear spells and light winds, becoming cool.

 

Some what a joke issued at around 3pm today, with a bloody great area of rain, all be it light but well shown on the radar chart since mid morning and shown to be heavy drizzle later.

Very poor show, think the person that wrote that needs to be taken aside, lol...

[Blessed Weather]

John Hammond is the Met Office 'weather advisor' for Local Authorities in East Anglia and today he has emailed the following alert regarding this Thurs/Friday. His email also contains a few other interesting insights too.

 

Here in the East of England this August we have easily had the best of the UK summer so far, with temperatures reaching the 22 to 27 Celsius range each day this month in our region to date. Rainfall-wise, there has been little if any for most places so far this August – but that is where later this week we are expecting to see a departure from the dry start to this month.

 

Hot conditions over Continental Europe have been a regular feature for much of this summer – and our region’s proximity to these high temperatures is why the East of England has had the best of the UK’s August weather so far. However, a plume of this very warm air looks set to combine with increasing moisture and humidity across the UK in the coming days – and this means that we could well have the ingredients in place to produce some heavy rain and thunderstorms – and therefore possible impacts.

 

At the moment, we get ‘two bites of the cherry’ when it comes to seeing high rainfall totals. Initially, through some thunderstorms moving northwards across the area, currently shaping up to arrive during Thursday. Then on Friday through the risk of some ‘home grown’ downpours developing in a very warm and humid air mass.

 

Clearly, with a few days to go there are uncertainties in the precise rainfall details. However, to reflect and highlight the current focus for possibly disruptive rainfall, Met Office Yellow Alerts have been issued which cover all of the East of England from 06:00 Thursday to 23:50 Friday. These Alerts bring a Very Low likelihood of Medium Impacts.

 

Just to reiterate, that with this type of meteorological set-up – and as we have already seen this summer with thunderstorms, rainfall totals can and will vary greatly from one location to another. Needless to say, further updates to these Alerts should be expected.  

 

And here is the Met Office Yellow Alert issued today and mentioned in John's email:

 

Chief Forecasters Assessment.

An area of low pressure is expected to push north then east across England during Friday. With very warm air entrained into the system, locally heavy rainfall is likely to continue as the system pushes across England and Wales. 25 to 40 mm of rain is possible in 6 to 12 hours, with as much as 70 mm possible very locally by the end of Friday. Localised thunderstorms may develop across the south and east of England during Friday afternoon, these potentially giving 15-25 mm of rain in a few hours.

The development  and subsequent track of this system is very complex, and uncertainty in the details of this event is relatively high. As such this warning will be updated in the coming days as confidence increases.

[seaside 60]

Thanks Malcolm,

interesting to see the more in depth views sent to councils.

NIce also to have confirmed the above average temps down here for August so far.

[Dami]

Quite surprised to see the rain on radar to point i had a nose out the door and yes i have rain.

[seaside 60]

Its now covering a very big area, to be fair it was only meant to be the main south east, but looking at radar its raining ish from Dorset to the wash.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Well this rain wasn't forecast

[Blessed Weather]

The Look East weather forecaster was again refreshingly honest this evening and admitted that the front, expected to stay off the SE coast of the UK, had actually moved further north than expected. Yet again the good old weather does what it wants and ignores the script!

 

Fax chart shows front  Rainfall 20.15