Southeast England & East Anglia, Weather Chat...July 1st 2015...

[VillagePlank]

Just going by the latest MO radar forcast.

 

It does seem to have a more northerly path to it than the warning suggests; lets hope for that great big banana swing to the left! The warning does include Medway, so I'm hopeful, but appreciate that forecasting heavy shower location is more art than science.

Edited August 13, 2015 by VillagePlank

[Methuselah]

It does seem to have a more northerly path to it than the warning suggests; lets hope for that great big banana swing to the left!

I was hoping for a swing to the right...Which ought to happen, as the LP moves north?

[Jimmyh]

Here comes the sun this will make the heat rocket

[VillagePlank]

To be fair, it could be almost any of those clusters in France - or one(s) which have yet to form

 

[Lauren]

That cat point blank refused to go out this morning, which he rarely does, so I guessed he sensed it coming. Just got back from work and I think he's decided to pop out in the calm between torrential downpours.

 

Haven't seen it get as dark as it did earlier in ages.

[VillagePlank]

I was hoping for a swing to the right...Which ought to happen, as the LP moves north?

 

I'm always for a lurch to right, but sometimes even I must concede that a swing to the left is a necessary evil

[Methuselah]

I'm always for a lurch to right, but sometimes even I must concede that a swing to the left is a necessary evil

 

[VillagePlank]

 

 

I've even paid me £3 and gonna vote Corbyn.

 

(that's a joke, btw - but would love to sit with him and his brother round the table at xmas time; would cheer me right up)

 

Here's the radar again: wow, that's really developing fast over there,

 

Edited August 13, 2015 by VillagePlank

[Methuselah]

I've even paid me £3 and gonna vote Corbyn.

 

 

(that's a joke, btw - but would love to sit with him and his brother round the table at xmas time; would cheer me right up)

You can all sit around a camp fire, toasting solar sausages!

[VillagePlank]

You can all sit around a camp fire, toasting solar sausages!

 

First order of business is to take global warming into public ownership, silly.

Edited August 13, 2015 by VillagePlank

[Dami]

It's raining here now, hold the watering can!

[VillagePlank]

Looking at these charts, the mind boggles at how big some of those clouds will be,

 

 

Maybe we're going to grow our own? Still, Medway is at the western edge of that area, so a shift westward is required, for me.

Edited August 13, 2015 by VillagePlank

[VillagePlank]

Clutching at straws and all that ...

 

The radar does suggest that the French storms are forming slightly more east than this mornings GFS,

 

[Biggin]

Not yet. Expect developments over northern France in the coming hours.

Spot on earlier Nick 

[chionomaniac]

Anyone around Tunbridge wells? The radar has kicked off there. LOL in only 10 minutes from Nothing to downpour. A good sign

Edited August 13, 2015 by chionomaniac

[10 Days Away]

Looks like that lot is going towards Belgium not over the Channel

[Nick L]

Spot on earlier Nick 

 

My degree wasn't a total waste of time it seems

[VillagePlank]

This quite neatly shows those Northern French developments

 

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu

 

Just my tired old eyes, but it looks like it's building insitu rather than going anywhere fast.

Edited August 13, 2015 by VillagePlank

[alexisj9]

Nice looking sky out right now, above the north sea dross there is absolutely loads of ac cas. 

Edited August 13, 2015 by alexisj9

[VillagePlank]

My completely and utterly ill-informed guess at likely trajectory,

 

 

But given the vertical velocity charts posted above, I expect this particular area to widen and pep-up somewhat as we get close to 18z.

Edited August 13, 2015 by VillagePlank

[VillagePlank]

More clutching at straws: Here's the low pressure,

 

 

The storm is heading NNW at the moment, but given that the low deepens off to our west, is the force of attraction to the centre of the low sufficient for a swing to the west?

[Lauren]

That big mass is slowly heading NE, not NW towards the UK.

[VillagePlank]

That big mass is slowly heading NE, not NW towards the UK.

 

You're interfering with my straw-clutching

I can't possibly allow facts or observation to get in the way.

Edited August 13, 2015 by VillagePlank

[Methuselah]

More clutching at straws: Here's the low pressure,

 

lp1.giflp2.gif

 

The storm is heading NNW at the moment, but given that the low deepens off to our west, is the force of attraction to the centre of the low sufficient for a swing to the west?

Or push all towards Suffolk?

[Neilsouth]

That big mass is slowly heading NE, not NW towards the UK.

 

Yep, not looking good so far