Southeast England & East Anglia, Weather Chat...July 1st 2015...

[Daniel*]

T&L just observed rain has eased for the time being.

[Atmogenic]

well I think the rain and thunder has stopped but the wind is still here so I might take a walk and see if there is any flooding

[Nick L]

More to come Nick ??  Is it on the radar yet ??

 

Not yet. Expect developments over northern France in the coming hours.

[snowrye]

Beautiful,had thunder and lightning since 4.30am on and off,then around 12.30 was treated to a proper storm,lovely lightning and booming thunder,excellent stuff,now will i get lucky again later,woohoo

[weathertoski]

The rain has stopped and the clouds are starting to break up (sort of)

[Daniel*]

Bring me sunshine.. tis the magical ingredient.

[lassie23]

Yes !! No lightning, few distant rumbles of thunder and I wouldn't even say the rain is exceptionally heavy !

Same here in London, the rain is pretty light, two rumbles of thunder and that is it for now. The weather dude on the bbc last night did say London would miss the best/worst of the storms but may get hit later, don't know if that still applies. Wonder what is happening in Woking, my brother forgot to shut his large bedroom window.  Hopefully there is nothing more than drizzle.

[seaside 60]

Properly the most rain we had all summer.

Heavy rain for the last 40 mins, fresh east wind and everything getting a real cleaning after the dry summer.

Thunder well gone although a nice cell of it of the Thames Estuary/north margate.

[nicol@]

Light rain now in Milton Keynes and that looks like all we will get this afternoon.

Poor show (false hope with the earlier radar).

[wally]

i still got my light rain.

Thanks for the welcome,Dami.

 

Still nothing in Bedford, not even rain.

[VillagePlank]

Well, thats what's just happened,

 

 

But look what's to come,

 

 

Just starting to form now,

 

 

 

[VillagePlank]

Met Office have upgraded the far SE to amber

 

[VillagePlank]

The warning says up to 30mm; however GFS is going for nearly 40mm,

 

 

(PW = Precipitable Water)

Edited August 13, 2015 by VillagePlank

[seaside 60]

That looks like a real clipping of kent essex suffolk.

As always more likely to be further east, but you never know could be further west...

[Nick L]

The warning says up to 30mm; however GFS is going for nearly 40mm,

 

skew-t.png

 

(PW = Precipitable Water)

 

PW is the amount of water if all the moisture in a column of atmosphere rained out, it is not necessarily the actual rainfall amount you'd get, as some would not rain out and some would evaporate on the way down.

[SMU]

The updated 14:45 radar has really developed the storms over NW france heading NW towards us

They look more pronounced than earlier

S

[VillagePlank]

That looks like a real clipping of kent essex suffolk.

As always more likely to be further east, but you never know could be further west...

 

Hmm, very unlikely that the MetO would get such a specific area wrong with only a few hours to go.

 

Here's GFS' take on it

 

 

Assuming that the steering winds for this are at 700-850hpa, GFS also pretty much shows a large area of very rapid rising air,

 

 

So, presumably, it will form around the Kent coast, and drift westwards a touch to near - or thereabouts - the amber warning area.

Edited August 13, 2015 by VillagePlank

[10 Days Away]

Been proper mental in south Kent (Dymchurch) today. That lot just north of Amien appears to have our name on it too

[Blessed Weather]

Looks like 'round 2' has kicked off nicely in northern France. A look at the 2 hour sequence from the Cloud Satellite website shows the storms bubble up and the flow appears to be in the general direction of the SE corner of the UK. http://www.sat24.com/en/eu

 

Lightning 14.50 

 

 

[VillagePlank]

The updated 14:45 radar has really developed the storms over NW france heading NW towards us

They look more pronounced than earlier

S

 

Are we expecting snow? Unusual to see you in these parts, this time of year, Steve

 

Here's the plan,

 

 

Those white blobs formed in pretty much 30 minutes, so really pepping up over there.

Edited August 13, 2015 by VillagePlank

[knocker]

PW is the amount of water if all the moisture in a column of atmosphere rained out, it is not necessarily the actual rainfall amount you'd get, as some would not rain out and some would evaporate on the way down.

 

True and would tie in.

[Essexgooner]

Proper heavy rain here for over an hour, few distant flashes and rumbles of thunder, and as usual the roads flooding instantly, lol suns out now but looking for round 2 later this afternoon 

[seaside 60]

Just going by the latest MO radar forcast.

[VillagePlank]

Fifteen minutes later,

 

[Atmogenic]

Just came back from my walk and unfortunately the only flooding I saw was on mud paths