Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[Hodgheg]

The sky are looking much better and its now noticeably more humid. Got a feeling its going to a late one tonight though.

[Bolt from the Blue]

Thinking about driving East on the A303 and parking up in a Lay-by with decent views. Then I can head North or further East if need be. I fear my home location might be too far south as usually it all goes bang just north of here!

[A.J]

some pretty deep convection apparent in the skies here.....It wouldn't surprise me to some home grown storms erupt near/along the M4 corridor within the hour

[Snowshine]

Metcheck really have some pretty useful features to check out:

 

Storm Scanner

 

Storm Satellite

 

 

 

[Gordon Webb]

 

Latest views from TORRO over on Facebook.

 

"The latest indications suggest two broader area of thunder risk:

1) Running through SW England, Wales, the Irish Sea, into SW Scotland overnight.

2) From around Dorset to Yorkshire and areas east of this, with Central Southern England up to the Wash perhaps with the higher risk.

Of course, this is still based on model simulations of the atmosphere - in reality, a fairly volatile situation looks like evolving and the above is simply an attempt to fine tune the detail. We'll have to monitor developments.

The highest chance of severe weather, i.e. large hail and strong winds, would appear to be with activity area 2, which has more instability and wind shear to work with"

 

All we can do now is sit back and hopefully enjoy the show! Good luck to anyone chasing! 

 

 

I'm lousy with maps where does this leave me ?

[James 'Jamie C' Croucher]

Thinking about driving East on the A303 and parking up in a Lay-by with decent views. Then I can head North or further East if need be. I fear my home location might be too far south as usually it all goes bang just north of here!

Good call actually, I was gonna go newbury corridor

[Harry]

Guess it shows the EURO4 (and other models) aren't very good, as it showed Wales/NW England yesterday and now from Hants to the Wash. Though some others including me always felt the greatest risk of strong/severe storms was further east.. in fact the BBC etc have come into line with what I and sites such as convective weather UK have thought since yesterday, although that may be luck as despite my best 'instinct' based on available charts I was feeling rather confused even earlier today lol.

NEVER count your chickens - when it comes to a plume anything can happen. This has shown to be the case year after year after year. In the past 24-36 hours along the UKMO model has threatened the whole south and West Country, then precluded the SE from any precip, then over each run in the past 12 hours pushed it slowly east again - some models have held firm on C/E areas for best convection, others held firm that west is best. Must save analysis until after the event

[Mokidugway]

Might take a chance on staying put ,getting drunk and watching twister if nowt comes off ...

[ChezWeather]

I'm lousy with maps where does this leave me ?

On the western edge of Zone 2 

[StormChaseUK]

Good towering cloud in St Malo.  

[Robbie Garrett]

Just had a look at what the MetOffice has put on its rainfall radar forecast map. Appears to be somethimg big moving north east between 2300 and 0100am through London.

What's everyones thoughts??

[Hodgheg]

Just had a look at what the MetOffice has put on its rainfall radar forecast map. Appears to be somethimg big moving north east between 2300 and 0100am through London.

What's everyones thoughts??

Heathrow is now going for Prob 40 for heavy thunderstorms too.

[ancientsolar]

If anyone has the netweather radar 5min updating.. look at the shower that just exploded in Swansea .. 5mins of light rain. then the next radar shows almost torrential rain!

I'm going to put it out there.. a thunderstorm could break out anywhere over the South West quarter of the UK.. around now.

Edited July 3, 2015 by ancientsolar

[matty40s]

Strong ENE winds currently through Leicestershire at low level.

The clouds up high however are moving to the East!!

[80sWeather]

Anybody around the Wash area in here this evening?

Staying at Heacham tonight and hoping for a storm!

[Chris K]

Just had a look at what the MetOffice has put on its rainfall radar forecast map. Appears to be somethimg big moving north east between 2300 and 0100am through London.

What's everyones thoughts??

 

I reckon Parts of SE, then a line M4 northwards are in for a good chance once things get going along. I am a bit worried things won't really get its act together until it goes North of my area. We'll see...Staring at the radars and sky until my eyes bleed at the moment.

[dave48]

Towering cumulus here, high based, looks ready to go!

[Andy Bown]

Anaprop in the Winchester/Salisbury area is beginning to annoy me.

 

However genuine showers seem to be breaking out over West Somerset and Devon.

[Harsh Climate]

From looking at the radar, perhaps some developements just starting in south wales

Anybody around the Wash area in here this evening?
Staying at Heacham tonight and hoping for a storm!

 

My dads in skegness tonight, he will be shaw to phone me if anything goes down.

[Gordon Webb]

On the western edge of Zone 2 

 

thank you

[Storm mad]

Hard to see as it's quite hazy here but it seems convection is initialising here to the sout and south west for sure the skies are changing. I wonder what will happen. Who knows

[StormChaseUK]

Something has formed near swansea area, dont think it's anaprop either.

[bobbydog]

i would like to report large anvils building to my south and an angry looking sky.

but i cant...

cos there isnt...

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Is it too early for storms to initiate in the South East?

[TwisterGirl81]

Humid in Exeter, hope we get a great thunderstorm and rain to clear the air, does anyone know our chances? Thankyou