Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

 Share

Recommended Posts

Azazel Veteran

Azazel

Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
Posted

Sweeeeet looks like we are set to miss out again.

For once I really do hope it does shift further east to affect what must be one of the least stormy portions of the UK

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted

Hmmm I would personally hold fire on charts yes they are good for a "guidance" but how many times in the last month or so have we all gone "hang on that isn't following the models" or "not going plan"

Let downs (if you call it that?)

To people getting plastered and the warning coming out half a day before..

Thunderstorms are pesky little tikes that don't play ball.. Prime examples today...

I would wait till tomorrow lunch time runs and the 06z to begin to make a crude judgement and follow the likes of the experts on here and estofax so on..

Tomorrow could go proper bang or proper nothing..

On a separate note.. This is why I love the weather we have..

So unpredictable and fast pace (sometimes)

Who needs Spain ;)

post-12648-0-94752900-1435861834_thumb.j

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mesoscale Rising Star

Mesoscale

Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
Posted

Anyone seen the estofex surface maps? I never even knew they had them?

http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/sfcmaps/browse_maps.pl?lat0=55&lon0=-3&scale=80&dtg=2015070218

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
IanR Seasoned

IanR

Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan
Posted (edited)

Looking at BBC's animation it looks like a supercell as wide as half the country will cross over the North West/Lancashire tomorrow night. I wonder how likely that is...

round 2 just two days later,  hmmmm would be nice, one lives in hope,  

 

we had lightning graphics over us for this evening but it was just general rain,  I have no right to complain though after last night :whistling:  

Edited by IanR
Link to comment
Share on other sites
tomp456 Seasoned

tomp456

Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
Posted

UKMO Going for a massive amount of previp over the west, NMM and GFS have it moving further south and east.

 

All can change yet folks 

Well! The GFS won't be right!!!!! :p

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
dave48 Apprentice

dave48

Posted
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
Posted

Storms seem as likley in the east or west, north or south tomorrow evening...Could be some crackers though, well organised, lots of lightning. NMM take below.

 

The met office model is a more western affair but then again, in the year or two since the met office site update,  I am yet to see it model plume precip correctly even an hour or two in advance. The signal is powerful storms, where they will be remains to be seen.

 

nmm_fr1-1-36-0.png?02-20

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mesoscale Rising Star

Mesoscale

Posted
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Humid Continental Climate (Dfa / Dfb)
  • Location: Watford, Hertfordshire, 68.7m ASL
Posted

Storms seem as likley in the east or west, north or south tomorrow evening...Could be some crackers though, well organised, lots of lightning. NMM take below.

 

The met office model is a more western affair but then again, in the year or two since the met office site update,  I am yet to see it model plume precip correctly even an hour or two in advance. The signal is powerful storms, where they will be remains to be seen.

 

nmm_fr1-1-36-0.png?02-20

I will believe it when I see it haha. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Evening thunder Experienced

Evening thunder

Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
Posted (edited)

I don't even know whether I should be in Egham or back home in Devon tomorrow evening.. 

 

According to the BBC maps it's back home, but then there was one occasion last June when storms were forecast for the SE.. yet home in Devon gets clobbered with nothing here, and one in July when the BBC only mentioned a risk for the SW.. yet the SE gets clobbered (although there was a bit of nice if infrequent lightning at home).. Guess what my locations were for those 2 events! Yep, where the strong storms weren't..

 

Regarding the EURO4 I think that is what feeds into the Met/BBC precip charts which is why they look very similar.. however for yesterday evening the Met Office charts for instance just went for a line of thundery showers up the Irish sea..

 

My general feeling is that while there may well be thunderstorms (potentially quite electrically active) and a lot of rain further west, it is further SE/east where the strongest storms with more of a severe threat (i.e. relatively large hail) may occur, if they fire.

Edited by Evening thunder
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
dave48 Apprentice

dave48

Posted
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
  • Location: Godalming, Surrey
Posted (edited)

I don't even know whether I should be in Egham or back home in Devon tomorrow evening.. 

 

According to the BBC maps it's back home, but then there was one occasion last June when storms were forecast for the SE.. yet home in Devon gets clobbered with nothing here, and one in July when the BBC only mentioned a risk for the SW.. yet the SE gets clobbered (although there was a bit of nice if infrequent lightning at home).. Guess what my locations were for those 2 events! Yep, where the strong storms weren't..

 

Regarding the EURO4 I think that is what feeds into the Met/BBC precip charts which is why they look very similar.. however for yesterday evening the Met Office charts for instance just went for a line of thundery showers up the Irish sea..

 

My general feeling is that while there may well be thunderstorms (potentially quite electrically active) and a lot of rain further west, it is further SE/east where the strongest storms may occur, if they fire.

If I was in the SE, I wouldn't leave it, always more favourable on an averages basis IMO...But as I say, my opinion and Macro theory for Micro application, so not really that sound, but in the long run I guess it works.

Edited by dave48
Link to comment
Share on other sites
PersianPaladin Aficionado

PersianPaladin

Posted
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
  • Location: 4 miles north of Durham City
Posted (edited)

My home county of Durham made the national news, with very large hailstones damaging cars and homes. Shame I'm living abroad at present:-

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-33362433

 

 

This was from a lightning strike in Newcastle:-

 

_83995236_lightning_house.jpg

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-33359066

Edited by PersianPaladin
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
lassie23 Maestro

lassie23

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted (edited)

Oh well, built an ark for nothing (purchased rubber dinghy from ebay). The 'killer storms' have all moved out west for Friday night Saturday morning. :doh:

Edited by lassie23
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Evening thunder Experienced

Evening thunder

Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
Posted (edited)

If I was in the SE, I wouldn't leave it, always more favourable on an averages basis IMO...But as I say, my opinion and Macro theory for Micro application, so not really that sound, but in the long run I guess it works.

 

Yes it is on longer term averages (though I wouldn't guess it from my experience). I feel like I have been unlucky - sometimes it has felt like a dead zone for the 3 years I've been here (though I'm usually at home for much of the summer) - but I have missed far more storms at home while at uni than the the other way round. 

 

I think Egham is unlucky (at least in recent years), seems to have a storm shield and a member of this forum who was at uni here before me found the same. Too far west for plumes that tend to only affect the SE, often too far east for plumes that affect other areas.  It also seems to rarely get decent home grown storms as they often die or avoid here somehow.

 

In general I feel it's more eastern/central and northern areas that have a higher risk of strong surface based storms like yesterday, as there is more land for the airmass to have travelled over as it moves N/NE, even if days of thunder or elevated plume storms are more common in the SE.

 

Edit: I forgot there being one final local factor, a storm is always better back home as you can listen to it even from a distance and you get better views, here there's nearly constant planes all day so it's only really worth it if it's relatively close I feel..

Edited by Evening thunder
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hodgheg Community Regular

Hodgheg

Posted
  • Location: Near Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Near Hull
Posted

Oh dear its all going wrong for us in the southeast. This close to going over to the no storms club.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ross Andrew Hemphill Community Regular

Ross Andrew Hemphill

Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
Posted

All that precipitation came and went with nothing but a few minutes of rain. Oh well, theres always tomorrow and this BETTER deliver otherwise I'm becoming an alcoholic at 16! :friends:  :drunk:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
jamesthemonkeh Enthusiast

jamesthemonkeh

Posted
  • Location: Harrow, London
  • Location: Harrow, London
Posted

Oh dear its all going wrong for us in the southeast. This close to going over to the no storms club.

 

Absolutely not.  There is no way this is settled yet.  Anywhere in England/Wales has a chance tomorrow evening in my view.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

Looking forward to tomorrow night, could be a whopper! :D

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
legritter Accomplished

legritter

Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
Posted (edited)

We will certainly get a better view of fridays action on waking up tomorrow ,i think many places could get a good humdinger so hold on gang ,cameras and radars at the ready time for a good flash Bang wollop best of luck to all ,cheers . :drinks:Action i feel will be a little later as currently forecast .

Edited by legritter
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted (edited)

We will certainly get a better view of fridays action on waking up tomorrow ,i think many places could get a good humdinger so hold on gang ,cameras and radars at the ready time for a good flash Bang wollop best of luck to all ,cheers . :drinks:

I think you have a really good risk, most thunderstorms spreading from this area tomorrow evening (could be a similar set up as yesterday morning with showers/thundery showers moving up from the English Channel early evening turning into thunderstorms on the coast and gradually becoming more severe and widespread as they move NE). The NMM loves me though, nearly continuous PPN for a good few hours tomorrow evening, I hope so! :D

Edited by William Grimsley
Link to comment
Share on other sites
StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted

Tomorrow night is interesting.   Nightmare for a storm chaser as it could be 150 miles west or 150 east of you. 

 

Should know by about 8pm I'd say :)

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
tomp456 Seasoned

tomp456

Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
Posted

If we get a decent storm here tomorrow, I'll buy everyone who wants one, a beer. 

 

There.

 

Storm now guaranteed. 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites
William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

I have to say, nearly the same amount of ML CAPE & LI as yesterday morning here but less ML CIN so less of a ML cap which is great news. Most charts really agreeing for this area as the breeding ground and seen as it started here yesterday, I think not seeing something will be quite unlikely. But, nothing is a defenite so I'm taking these charts as a pinch of salt right now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted (edited)

The 3KM NMM shows storms maturing around Bristol/West Midlands and then moving in to the East Midlands/Parts of East Anglia during Saturday morning.

Edited by Mapantz
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

The 3KM NMM shows storms maturing around Bristol/West Midlands and then moving in to the East Midlands/Parts of East Anglia during Saturday morning.

Really? I see them dying out as they reach Bristol with major development over Ireland?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...