Storm & Convective Discussion - 04/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I'm getting potential for Tuesday... Could this be the first true outing for the Stormcatcher?

:-D

[Trancemaster1966]

I have every sympathy for those families who have lost loved ones today from the lightning strikes in the Brecon Beacons.  Remember this the next time you all wish that the storms are over your head.  Mother nature isn't to be messed with.  However, I do think that experienced hill walkers need to check out the forecast a little better, and if there is the slightest chance of thunderstorms developing, then they should stay off the peaks.  It WAS forecast which makes the loss of life even more baffling and unnecessary.  Please learn from this hillwalkers.  RIP

Edited July 6, 2015 by Trancemaster1966

[Vienna1961]

As promised here is a shot of the shelf cloud over Beverley earlier this evening.

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/21318-img-2413/

 

 

This cloud connected two cells, one to the N and one to the S of me but was best defined towards the north.

Wow that's an impressive cloud!

[Spikecollie]

I have every sympathy for those families who have lost loved ones today from the lightning strikes in the Brecon Beacons.  Remember this the next time you all wish that the storms are over your head.  Mother nature isn't to be messed with.  However, I do think that experienced hill walkers need to check out the forecast a little better, and if there is the slightest chance of thunderstorms developing, then they should stay off the peaks.  It WAS forecast which makes the loss of life even more baffling and unnecessary.  Please learn from this hillwalkers.  RIP

It's very difficult though when you have set your mind on getting out there. This is especially so when the storms are isolated and you hope you'll be able to take shelter if you do get one. It's easy to ignore the fact that lightning can strike you even when it's not overhead. Looking back on yesterday, we were foolish to go out on our bikes and get stuck in that lot, and no we shouldn't really have gone out given the risk.Having said that, we put sunscreen on before we left as it was baking - it changed so fast! But what do you do - wait until it's a cool, drizzly day with no thunder risk at all? That's just yucky and you'd never get out much at all, and besides you can't help, despite being soaking wet and stung by hailstones, feeling a sense of excitement at being so close to the elements...

Edited July 6, 2015 by Spikecollie

[The PIT]

It's very difficult though when you have set your mind on getting out there. This is especially so when the storms are isolated and you hope you'll be able to take shelter if you do get one. It's easy to ignore the fact that lightning can strike you even when it's not overhead. Looking back on yesterday, we were foolish to go out on our bikes and get stuck in that lot, and no we shouldn't really have gone out given the risk.Having said that, we put sunscreen on before we left as it was baking - it changed so fast! But what do you do - wait until it's a cool, drizzly day with no thunder risk at all? That's just yucky and you'd never get out much at all, and besides you can't help, despite being soaking wet and stung by hailstones, feeling a sense of excitement at being so close to the elements...

It isn't really though is it.

It's a simple case of watching the forecast and timing your activities accordingly. So if I see a stormy weekend I won't be walking across a peak I probably doing something that needs doing in the house or doing the hated trip into town to pick something up instead. Although we don't have the states version of real time radar which will come eventually you can still get versions for mobile devices which can give you enough warning if you care too look.

Interestingly there supposed to be a risk today and early there were flashes over Ireland but the models were showing zero potential so early.

Edited July 6, 2015 by The PIT

[Supacell]

I may be mistaken, or clutching at straws, but I am drawn to the early part of tomorrow as a front moving from the NW to the SE looks to produce a very defined but narrow band of intense precipitation. I am interested in the possibility of storms running along it. The following charts are taken from lightning wizard and so are based on GFS and are for 06z tomorrow.

 

Parcel Layer Depth quite impressive along a narrow line. Looks to me like a NW to SE moving line with SW to NE moving storms (if there are any).

 

 

As small amount of MUCAPE (most unstable) and ICAPE (integrated) available but combined with 30-40 knots of deep layer shear.

 

 

 

Thompson index and precipitation on chart 1 - hail parameter on chart 2 showing hail of up to 2-3cm in diameter

 

   

 

Plenty of moisture along the same narrow strip.

 

 

Does anyone else have a view on this?

 

 

[Gordon Webb]

BBC news has a chance of a line of heavy and thundery showers moving W to E through midlands to Eastern England tomorrow afternoon

 

make of that what you will , not convinced myself

[Bolt from the Blue]

Can see perhaps the odd shower with a rumble in it tomorrow, but you never know.

[The PIT]

BBC news has a chance of a line of heavy and thundery showers moving W to E through midlands to Eastern England tomorrow afternoon

 

make of that what you will , not convinced myself

Evening forecast mentioned it as well but slightly further north. No support for it on the GFS so not so sure as too where they're getting it from.

[Gordon Webb]

Evening forecast mentioned it as well but slightly further north. No support for it on the GFS so not so sure as too where they're getting it from.

 

perhaps they're over compensating

[Mokidugway]

Slap bang on me , not again !!!!!

[Stuart]

missing me out 1 one again looking at the weather forecast

[Allseasons-Si]

 

anyone know of which camera to buy for video/capturing storms,with a reasonal price,much appreciated.

 

Just been looking at this camera,what do you think,maybe i could do with one a bit cheaper that will do similar things but willing to push the boat out IF it is worth it

 

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Panasonic-DMC-FZ72EB-K-Lumix-Bridge-Camera/dp/B00E0YFOKI/ref=sr_1_19?s=photo&ie=UTF8&qid=1436211072&sr=1-19&keywords=camera

 

i have a £50 voucher with Amazon,so it will have to be from there.

[Karl83]

Just been looking at this camera,what do you think,maybe i could do with one a bit cheaper that will do similar things but willing to push the boat out IF it is worth it

 

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Panasonic-DMC-FZ72EB-K-Lumix-Bridge-Camera/dp/B00E0YFOKI/ref=sr_1_19?s=photo&ie=UTF8&qid=1436211072&sr=1-19&keywords=camera

 

i have a £50 voucher with Amazon,so it will have to be from there.

A nice looking camera and some excellent reviews - The features it has and for the price, I think you should go for it!

 

The ability to shoot in RAW as well is very good.

Edited July 6, 2015 by Karl83

[Allseasons-Si]

A nice looking camera and some excellent reviews - The features it has and for the price, I think you should go for it!

 

The ability to shoot in RAW as well is very good.

Don't get me tempted,my partner has a frying pan ready lol

 

i do like the wind shield feature on it too ,mmm!!,how annoying is it to film in open land and you get that knagging wind that muffles the sound out of everything

 

i will keep on shopping around but my eyes are turning square at the mo

Edited July 6, 2015 by Allseasons-si

[Supacell]

Don't get me tempted,my partner has a frying pan ready lol

 

i do like the wind shield feature on it too ,mmm!!,how annoying is it to film in open land and you get that knagging wind that muffles the sound out of everything

 

i will keep on shopping around but my eyes are turning square at the mo

 

Yes this is often a problem for me. I have still not figured out how to get rid of the wind but keep the other sounds.

[Mapantz]

Re; Wind noise.. Check out YouTube, there's tons of tips for cameras, smartphones, GoPro's etc..

[Nick F]

Storm & Convective Forecast

 

Issued 2015-07-06 22:34:19

Valid: 07/07/2015 00z to 08/07/2015 00z

 

 

CONVECTIVE/STORM OUTLOOK - TUESDAY 7TH JUNE

 

Synopsis

Upper low/trough over the Atlantic will shift east across the UK over the next 12-24hrs. Surface low just west of Ireland will move NE across Scotland Tues afternoon, to be over North Sea/SW Norway by Tues midnight. A cold front moves slowly east across the UK Monday night/Tuesday morning, clearing SE England/E Anglia by midday. An unstable rPm SWly flow will follow the cold front across central, northern and western areas.

 

... S ENGLAND, MIDLANDS, LINCS AND E ANGLIA TUES MORNING ...

 

Warm/moist air advection tongue ahead of cold front moving across England and Wales Tuesday morning will create a narrow zone of instability in the warm sector just ahead of the front, with a few 100 j/kg CAPE indicated by GFS.  Line convection may form along the front producing heavy pulses of convective rain with some embedded thunderstorms moving NE along the front. Storms may organise into multicell or line segments - given 40-50 knts of DLS - with a risk predominantly of strong wind gusts and torrential rain leading to localised flooding.

 

... IRELAND, SCOTLAND, N ENGLAND, WALES and MIDLANDS ...

 

Post cold front airmass will be characterised by steepening lapse rates, as cold air advection takes place aloft with arrival of upper trough from the west atop of diurnally heated moist boundary layer. Up to 300-400 j/kg CAPE are indicated in the afternoon across central and northern Britain, as the steeper lapse rates arrive from the west, this combined with forced ascent with arriving upper trough and surface heating will support the development of scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms across the above areas. Vertical shear will become weaker into the afternoon here during peak heating, so storms may struggle to organise to bring any severe threat, though any storms will be capable of hail, gusty winds and heavy rain leading to localised flooding.

Edited July 6, 2015 by Nick F

[Daniel*]

Over the pond, Grand Canyon

[Nick F]

Evening forecast mentioned it as well but slightly further north. No support for it on the GFS so not so sure as too where they're getting it from.

 

There is evidence from 18z GFS of a narrow corridor of instability ahead of the cold front  moving across England in the morning - which supports the BBC forecast for the odd rumble of thunder along the front.

 

[fazer76]

Over the pond, Grand Canyon

image.jpg

Reminds me of Newcastle only a few days ago :-) or was it Leeds?

[poseidon]

Rumble of thunder here and three strikes showing in the vicinity. The leading edge of the front seemed to change structure as it passed over, from looking pretty innocuous on approach to much more the look of a squall line, with asperatus. Brief spell of heavy rain, but no wind.

[The PIT]

Bonus storms for people to east of us this morning. Thought the lightning detectors had gone wonky but radar says not.

[The PIT]

Hi Nick. So narrow you can miss it but it provided the storms

[matty40s]

Line now seems to be forming from Worcester to Wolverhampton, wouldn't be suprised to see that start to spark soon.