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North West England Weather Discussion 14/11/15 Onwards

Liam J

By Liam J
in Regional

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted
1 minute ago, karyo said:

Sat24 is already showing tomorrow's system. It is currently joust south of Iceland moving south/southeastwards.

http://en.sat24.com/en

 

Doesn't that technically make it a polar low?

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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted

Model posted in the Midlands thread shos snow even for coasts.

 

 

 

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I Cumbria Marra I Seasoned

I Cumbria Marra I

Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
Posted
8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That's when you know they're struggling. If they were confident they'd have zoomed in and toured around. There's a split developing over this feature. Some models say a Welsh event, some say Midlands. GFS ensembles backing the former, Euro 4 and others backing the latter.

The WRF-NMM models has the ppn out in the irish sea

 

Rain/Snowfall EURO4 Sa 16.01.2016 18 GMTnmm_uk1-1-23-0.png?15-23nmmuk-1-23-0.png?16-00

  Rain/Snowfall EURO4 Su 17.01.2016 00 GMTnmm_uk1-1-29-0.png?15-23nmmuk-1-29-0.png?16-00

Its unbelievable

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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Doesn't that technically make it a polar low?

No, but it can still be a snow maker for us.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

The WRF-NMM models has the ppn out in the irish sea

 

Rain/Snowfall EURO4 Sa 16.01.2016 18 GMTnmm_uk1-1-23-0.png?15-23nmmuk-1-23-0.png?16-00

  Rain/Snowfall EURO4 Su 17.01.2016 00 GMTnmm_uk1-1-29-0.png?15-23nmmuk-1-29-0.png?16-00

Its unbelievable

Wrf doesn't surprise me, it's based on gfs data so I believe. GFS is showing the western path.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 minute ago, chicken soup said:

Why do i get that sinking feeling that this is going paps up...whys it always like this and never straight forward.

This week's modelling has been a complete mind fxxk. I'm tired of it all. We can't even get agreement at 24 hours out. How can something deviate as much as 50-100 miles in 24 hours from the initialisation data? 

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I Cumbria Marra I Seasoned

I Cumbria Marra I

Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

Well if that BBC chart on the previous page is right, then I'll have to go to the shop tomorrow and buy a bottle of wine to drown my sorrows with.

I'll be buying some skis to go skiing down egremont main street

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I Cumbria Marra I Seasoned

I Cumbria Marra I

Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
Posted
6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Wrf doesn't surprise me, it's based on gfs data so I believe. GFS is showing the western path.

Cheers i didn't know that, feel slightly more optimistic now

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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted
10 minutes ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

Well if that BBC chart on the previous page is right, then I'll have to go to the shop tomorrow and buy a bottle of wine to drown my sorrows with.

You get your ideal weather 364 days of the year, don't be greedy:D

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Just in case anyone needed another dose of model confusion for tomorrow night, Netweather's own Hi-res model takes the ppn down into Wales only tomorrow evening from the Irish Sea and even here it is light so pretty much another option on the table. This table is so full of options now, there is no room to sit around it and enjoy it properly. Like a christmas dinner, I am now tired and exhausted from all of the different foods and have been overloaded!

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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted
14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

This week's modelling has been a complete mind fxxk. I'm tired of it all. We can't even get agreement at 24 hours out. How can something deviate as much as 50-100 miles in 24 hours from the initialisation data? 

Because its such an unusual feature of having a waving weather front bumping into high pressure and just kind of going in another direction of the upper and surface wind flow, even with high pressure near by, the intensity which is projected makes it even more surprising. Your going to get slight variations with each run on this and its exact positioning is unfortunately not nailed and it will just be down to radar watching I'm afraid. 

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted

I'll just leave this here ;)

image.png

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

Good morning. Erm...

erm.png

Quite a strong boundary there, however I think modelling is perhaps making too much of uppers as uppers stay a couple of degrees below freezing, even across Wales. Where surface wind backs SE'ly I think you can probably expect snow

ukwind.png

 

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Zephyr Community Regular

Zephyr

Posted
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
  • Location: Yate, South Gloucestershire
Posted (edited)

Hi folks hope you don't mind me joining in to your thread as I am a south westerner. :D

Is it me or is the precip to the west of Scotland arriving a little earlier than suggested? 18z  EURO4 had it making landfall at around 09z but it seems to be making in roads now.

Edited by Zephyr
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
10 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Are you declaring this nailed now crewe...surely even the GFS wont be wrong at this range.

I'm not declaring anything, 18 hours out or not after this week's modelling fiasco!

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
12 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

arpegeuk-24-29-0.png

 

0z Arpege looking ok for the NW

 

*edit* That's the 18z!! Doh. I'm going back to bed! 

D'oh Ben!

Hi res Arpege should trickle out in next 20 mins or so.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

Have you a link to that model please?

Cheers.

Here you go :)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege.php?map=330

 

Edited by CreweCold
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