North West England Weather Discussion 14/11/15 Onwards

[I Cumbria Marra I]

BBC graphics showed rain/snow moving in for most of the region Sat night/Sunday morning then retreating back out to the irish sea, showed mainly rain on the coasts

[frosty ground]

Heavy snow here @306m 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

any one the update times for the euro4 model?

[Snow-Capped]

7 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

any one the update times for the euro4 model?

EURO4 Model

Model:

Euro4: Global weather forecast model from the "UK MetOffice, North Atlantic European Model"

Updated:

4 times per day, from 0:00, 05:00, 11:00 and 17:00 UTC

Edited January 15, 2016 by Snow-Capped

[Snowy L]

12z still showing the ppn for Saturday night. Over to the Met Office.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

33hrs

 

Up the ramp we go

[Darren Bown]

7 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

33hrs

 

Up the ramp we go

DP's less than 0 across most of the region except the immediate coast in NE Wales and Wirral is very promising, air temps probably around freezing or 1C pretty widely.

Edited January 15, 2016 by Darren Bown

[Darren Bown]

I don't like posting on the model thread as I don't really have much of a clue on them, but there are some interesting undercutting charts being posted regarding Monday - my trip to Reading at 6am may be very interesting!

[cheshire snow]

Short term GFS12Z is very tasty for

the region I will say no more

C.S 

[dodge]

Perhaps the final shower of this brief spell passing through.  A bit of sleet mixed in, but let's not kid myself it was 99% rain.  Will be very icy later in untreated areas.

[James M]

Well the last shower had some very wet snowflakes in it and it's topped up the snow above 400m

[northwestsnow]

Poor show  really, just rain with a bit of sleet, its mid Jan and still cant get snow from a nor wester- just confirms my dislike of anything with a westerly component, even in mid Jan!!

[Liam J]

Clear skies now, temp 2.4c, DP 1c... Be very icy after the rain today if it freezes. 

[Geordiesnow]

1 hour ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

BBC graphics showed rain/snow moving in for most of the region Sat night/Sunday morning then retreating back out to the irish sea, showed mainly rain on the coasts

I found the graphics quite odd tbh, shows the white PPN heading our way then fading very quickly, does not seem right too me but at least the potential is still there. 

The important thing for me is for those winds to stay off shore, I expect during Sunday the winds may become on shore again as the wind will start to pick up but by then any PPN is expected to be light and patchy, could be interesting but I would not get too carried away just yet, it could be down to radar watching at the end of the day. 

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

The temperature has plummeted here in the last hour. It was 4.1°C an hour ago, now it's only +0.2°C. Given the rain/sleet before, I think ice will be a real problem tonight.

Yip, its gone blinkin cold temp dropping rapidly scott- icey tonight can see a few people falling over later !!

[Weather-history]

Lovely anvils and convective skies today from Irlam. Not sure what that light is at the beginning of the time-lapse, some aircraft. 

 

 

 

[James M]

35 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Poor show  really, just rain with a bit of sleet, its mid Jan and still cant get snow from a nor wester- just confirms my dislike of anything with a westerly component, even in mid Jan!!

Aww there have been brilliant snowfalls for us from a WNW before now. Just don't seem to be that common or cold enough these days.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, James M said:

Aww there have been brilliant snowfalls for us from a WNW before now. Just don't seem to be that common or cold enough these days.

True james, im in my 40's now and i remember some classic streamers in the 1980's and my dad digging out the drive to get to work at very ungodly hours, annoying as i was a schoolkid and liked my sleep but exciting at the same time because when i heard the shovel i knew it meant one thing !!!

[Hocus Pocus]

I was out on the fells today at a height of just over 500m and even with a temp of around 0.4c  it struggled to snow, with a mixture of graupel and wet snow in any showers. 

[Darren Bown]

BBC's forecast just showed farty bits of sleet, mostly out west of our region, for Saturday night.

[Snowy L]

15 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

BBC's forecast just showed farty bits of sleet, mostly out west of our region, for Saturday night.

BBC weather showing 8 consecutive hours of rain sometimes heavy, but not one mention of precipitation in the text forecast. BBC and Met Office really do cop out when it comes to forecasting snow events. 3 days away is ok, but to do this just 1 day before is weak.

Edited January 15, 2016 by Snowy L

[snowydog]

Hi all 

resident of NI here. Usually take part in the Ireland discussion thread. However I'm flying into Manchester Monday morning and in Manchester Monday night. Driving to Blackburn on Tuesday afternoon and back to Manchester on Tuesday night with a flight home on Wednesday morning. 

I'm no good at reading models or anything, what's the general consensus on the weather in that part of the country on Monday / Tuesday / Wednesday? 

Bit worried about driving my hire car if there's going to be any snow or ice. Had a bad experience in Liverpool last time I had a hire car (kids throwing bricks from railway station that hit my car) 

Any info would be greatly appreciated  

Thanks

 

[northwestsnow]

euro4 model looks good tomorrow night with snow away from the coast.

bbc dont seem to rate that model going off this afternoons forecast.

its a high res model, 24 hours out, who do we believe??/

[dodge]

Appears to be a 'snizzle' affair for Monday/Tuesday if the band of precipitation gets this far east.  Appears very light.  Those in the west of the region may be more favourable if they can get lucky with the right side of marginals i.e. temps, dp's, intensity etc... Usual caveat applies for me.... expecting nothing, then be surprised if you get something.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Arrives quicker and rain for coasts