North West England Weather Discussion 14/11/15 Onwards

[Spurry]

Sod all here

 

[algernon]

7 minutes ago, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

Met office rainfall forecast for midnight shows showers from EGCC to cat and fiddle a little further east than anticipated 

Heavy right over me. 

[Thunder Snow]

Well temp of -1 and a dew of -4 very clear skies no chance of snow. So off to bed enjoy further south guys

[carl1980]

Feeling more like winter now

[Darren Bown]

1 minute ago, carl1980 said:

Feeling more like winter now

Is that just now? Absolutely nothing here!

[carl1980]

5mins ago mostly hail

[damianslaw]

47 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

I don't think we'll get any, this happens very often in this type of set up, the showers only hit the south of the region.

Perhaps not tonight, but showers are projected for SW Scotland tomorrow, and Met office radar shows plenty of them making there way into Cumbria- the added warmth should aid instability, I'm feeling quite optimistic.

[Darren Bown]

Hopefully tomorrows chances will come a little later in the day, (after 4 or 5pm) as that'll be when the air starts cooling.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

21 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Perhaps not tonight, but showers are projected for SW Scotland tomorrow, and Met office radar shows plenty of them making there way into Cumbria- the added warmth should aid instability, I'm feeling quite optimistic.

But tomorrow the showers bring a mild section with them so i can't see any snow falling under 200M

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Them WRF-NMM 2km precip charts change so much over such a short period of time, don't really rate it at all.

[Mokidugway]

Is bbc northwest tonight or bbc Syria !!! Bloody cold tonight..

[James M]

If the showers are going to move further east they might aswell go the whole hog! Otherwise it looks like only a slight frost here, as there's bits and pieces of cloud and a breeze.

[chicken soup]

Anyone seen the latest euro4, cant post it from my phone but it gives us a big snow event on saturday night...hi res model as well.....this has come from right out of the blue......just hope its not a case of too good to be true.

Edited January 15, 2016 by chicken soup

[I Cumbria Marra I]

9 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Anyone seen the latest euro4, cant post it from my phone but it gives us a big snow event on saturday night...hi res model as well.....this has come from right out of the blue......just hope its not a case of too good to be true.

good spot

 

just a shame it will most likely downgrade

[James M]

1 minute ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

good spot

 

just a shame it will most likely downgrade

Yeah it's that feature that was just expected to reach Scotland and die out in previous runs. We can live in hope though

[chicken soup]

3 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

good spot

 

just a shame it will most likely downgrade

I cant claim the credit unfortunatly...it was in the model thread...hope its right...only 48 hours away...cant be wrong at that range ...surely.

[Frost HoIIow]

Interestingly the Met office now have me under for snow for the early hours of Sunday, it will probably be gone tomorrow but it must tie in with the euro4. Just a few hours ago the forecast showed clear skies.

Edited January 15, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[Geordiesnow]

 

I would be skeptical about such a feature tbh however I have seen surprise heavy snowfall from set ups which on paper don't look like any snow should fall at all. 

One of them was in February 2009 where a warm front was meant to cross the country without any fuss however the front became occluded and became a waving front so instead of a bit patchy rain, it turned to heavy snow for a good few hours and left a very good covering. It did turn back to rain on its back edge as the milder air did came back in but by then, the PPN was quite light and patchy.

Heres the forecast on the 1:30 news for that day... Of course its good there might be a risk of some surprise snowfall but if all we get is sleet/rain then I would be dissapointed a nice hard frost will be replaced by grey skies and cold nothingness.  

 

[chicken soup]

The way the models are at the moment, i too am sceptical, but i live in hope, its got to go our way at some point.

[Miamay]

Just had big flash of lightening and rumble of thunder !! Was in Liverpool on night out and it was trying to snow but not quite there !!

Edited January 15, 2016 by Miamay

[Cheshire Freeze]

Showers forming more readily in the flow now once again....high res charts showed this around 4am. Some areas may get lucky in the next couple of hours. Just had a lightish shower pass through and it started to lay much easier than earlier so should anything heavy push through it should stand more chance of laying.

[Darren Bown]

Just been to the window to see rain!

[Weather-history]

Overnight anvils, a few wintry showers. My favourite type of time-lapse, development and passage of anvils in the sky

 

 

 

[Spah1]

Where has this come from ???

 

 

Edited January 15, 2016 by Spah1

[Spah1]

Where has this come from ???