North West England Weather Discussion 14/11/15 Onwards

[Darren Bown]

From UK weather outlook. Not looking good.

[Weather-history]

51 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Fantastic array of anvils over the sea ,sun setting behind them now ,someone's going to get a pasting...

Can see them from here, should be on my time-lapse.

[Cheshire Freeze]

12 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

From UK weather outlook. Not looking good.

Well we'll see what happens. I've noticed the past two GFS runs have veered the winds ever so slightly more NW

Edited January 14, 2016 by CreweCold

[Darren Bown]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well we'll see what happens. I've noticed the past two GFS runs have veered the winds ever so slightly more NW

I'm certainly not liking those wind directions for our region.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Darren Bown said:

I'm certainly not liking those wind directions for our region.

Well for North Cheshire northwards they're not really any good. But they're a slight improvement and at least bring most of Cheshire into the game.

[Geordiesnow]

I do feel there will be some shower activity in the Irish sea to hit more southern parts of the region, I really would not worry about that, its the fact is the air cold enough for them to fall as snow and with above average SST's, I'm just not too sure, of course if the winds are off shore, no problems but sadly the winds are not going to be off shore. 

I'm probably too far too North and obviously too close to the coast but it would be nice too see some convective weather which is something I thought I would see more of living here now but sadly not at the moment. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Right, I've looked at al the data and yes, sadly, the main streamer looks to far W and S even for here. However, there could be a second, less intense, batch of showers during the early hours which coincide with winds veering briefly. NMM shows this

[Weather-history]

31 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Can see them from here, should be on my time-lapse.

There is nothing like an Arctic airmass with those crystal clear blue skies, convection begins over the Irish Sea just after midday and the anvils and clouds shoot up in the twilight.

 

 

[weatherobsuk]

Could see the anvils shining red here from the Peaks, a few cells were looking quite beefy with good updrafts supporting them.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Could see the anvils shining red here from the Peaks, a few cells were looking quite beefy with good updrafts supporting them.

Whenever I attempt to capture beefy showers on video, my films come out all jerky!

[itsnowjoke]

Nothing here but it's blooming cold haven't felt this cold for a good while

[Darren Bown]

13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Right, I've looked at al the data and yes, sadly, the main streamer looks to far W and S even for here. However, there could be a second, less intense, batch of showers during the early hours which coincide with winds veering briefly. NMM shows this

That's a little more promising

[itsnowjoke]

Was gonna go out for a curry but to cold to walk to near to get a taxi but if I drive I can't have a pint

[Weather-history]

There's definitely eastwards shift of that preciptation line over the Irish Sea. An hour ago, it was to the west of Llandudno, now it's to the east.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

That streamer has an eastwards shift to it. Look at the past hour, it has shifted 50 miles or so. If it carries on that streamer will pass over the mersey and dee estuaries in an hour or so

Edited January 14, 2016 by Stratocumulus perlucidus

[Chris.R]

3 minutes ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

That streamer has an eastwards shift to it. Look at the past hour, it has shifted 50 miles or so. If it carries on that streamer will pass over the mersey and dee estuaries in an hour or so I like it! I'll let you all know. 

 

[March Blizzard]

18 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

Was gonna go out for a curry but to cold to walk to near to get a taxi but if I drive I can't have a pint

Yeah. Bitterly cold out there today in that wind. Only just thawed out now.

[Liam J]

Temp not dropping much after sunset thanks to the winds off the sea, currently 2.7c. Looking at the latest temps around Lancs southwards they're 4/5c so if there is any showers you'll probably need to be away from the coast to see any snow as the flow off the Irish Sea is keeping temps up. 

[captaincroc]

 

Been keeping an eye on the ARPEGE as Met Office rate it and it's looking better on the 12z than on the 6z for tonight.

[captaincroc]

Latest Euro4 is looking good too for Cheshire?

Edited January 14, 2016 by captaincroc

[Darren Bown]

It's only snow on the hills, though it may be also it being inland. Rain at the coast, and Anglesey is mostly rain/sleet.

[Darren Bown]

4 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

Latest Euro4 is looking good too for Cheshire?

I'm right on the eastern edge of that!

[captaincroc]

2 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

It's only snow on the hills, though it may be also it being inland. Rain at the coast, and Anglesey is mostly rain/sleet.

The Dew Points for here from the Euro4 for the time of the Rain/Snow are freezing or lower and the uppers are -8. So fingers crossed.....but we have been here before and got sleety ice pellets.

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

Latest Euro4 is looking good too for Cheshire?

As I thought, theres been a slight eastwards trend on the latest runs. Noticed it first with the GFS. Fine margins and all that!

[captaincroc]

Hey up CreweCold. It's like the old days eh? Chasing the Radar at 4am!