North West England Weather Discussion 14/11/15 Onwards

[Day 10]

3 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Arrives quicker and rain for coasts 

Beat me to it, was just about to type look away now if in the west/south

[Day 10]

5 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Arrives quicker and rain for coasts 

Would only take a slight shift west though to improve things

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Just now, Minus 10 said:

Would only take a slight shift west though to improve things

Lets hope so, but gut feeling is it will be rain on/near coasts and snow above 100M, it always manages to go pear shaped for us on the coast.

[Snowy L]

Has any TV forecast acknowledged the existence of this ppn for Saturday night or are they all too scared?

[Day 10]

3 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

Lets hope so, but gut feeling is it will be rain on/near coasts and snow above 100M, it always manages to go pear shaped for us on the coast.

Fingers crossed

[Day 10]

6 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Has any TV forecast acknowledged the existence of this ppn for Saturday night or are they all too scared?

It probably won't amount to much anyway

[cheshire snow]

1 hour ago, Minus 10 said:

tomorrowd only take a slight shift  west though to improve things

Mean time ARPEGE model has tomorrow night event as snow even

To the coast.

C.S

[Snowy L]

14 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Mean time ARPEGE model has tomorrow night event as snow even

To the coast.

C.S

Going to be very close. Do these models take into account the wind direction? Uppers and dewpoints are fine for the entire region and there won't be any wind from the Irish Sea direction.

 

BBC forecasts have updated and it's upgraded my area to an all sleet event. East Liverpool seems to be the dividing line between rain and snow at the moment. St Helens for example is forecast a near all snow event.

Edited January 15, 2016 by Snowy L

[cheshire snow]

1 hour ago, Snowy L said:

Go ing to be very close. Do these models take into account the wind direction? Uppers and dewpoints are fine for the entire region and there won't be any wind from the Irish Sea direction.

Wind direction is from the SE so no problem there.

The national forecast just said much uncertainty on

How this could develop...thrres That word again

DP is also negative uppers only -2 but can certainly

Get snow with those uppers given the flow from

A cold continent.

C.S

 

Edited January 15, 2016 by cheshire snow

[Day 10]

9 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Going to be very close. Do these models take into account the wind direction? Uppers and dewpoints are fine for the entire region and there won't be any wind from the Irish Sea direction.

 

BBC forecasts have updated and it's upgraded by area to an all sleet event. East Liverpool seems to be the dividing line between rain and snow at the moment. St Helens for example is forecast a near all snow event.

Yes good to see, we have a better chance anyhow, it will come down to the wire I think if it makes it this far that is.

[Snowy L]

Just now, cheshire snow said:

Wind direction is from the SE so no problem there.

The national forecast just said much uncertainty on

How this could develop...thrres That word again

DP is also negative uppers only -2 but can certainly

Get snow with those uppers given the flow from

A cold continent.

C.S

 

Chart posted on the previous page shows uppers of -6 for almost all of the region except for the West coast at 9pm tommorow and even that area is under -5 uppers.

[Mokidugway]

Wind will be coming from south east so will keep the hot pond influence at bay so I'd say slightly better than marginal.   

[cheshire snow]

56 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Chart posted on the previous page shows uppers of -6 for almost all of the region except for the West coast at 9pm tommorow and even that area is under -5 uppers.

Fair play i was looking at something else.

C.S

[Chris.R]

It will be snow at the coast,  The offshore wind will negate any  marginality, always does, seen it countless times before.   I'm not worried. :-) 

[cheshire snow]

One thing is certain,it is going to be an ice rink in the morning

Showers now cleared,skies are clear and its dropping like a

Stone

C.S

Edited January 15, 2016 by cheshire snow

[cheshire snow]

LOL

Now i believe miss Oxbury has just mentioned wintry weather

Now thats a first

C.S

[Chris.R]

8 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

One thing is certain,it is going to be an ice rink in the morning

Showers now cleared,skies are clear and its dropping like a

Stone

C.S

  Only dropping very slowly here. I'll have to wait for the wind to veer  before I can get a frost. Then I will be one of the coldest parts of the region as the offshore wind turns the tables ...sorry to go on about it lol

[captaincroc]

I am liking the wind being SE for tomorrow nights feature. I think just need much more on 'our side' temperature, dew point etc to get proper snow from the North West Streamers.

Just looked at the BBC website and it's looking good on there for Nantwich.

[Chris.R]

 We want temperatures to drop as far as possible tonight now across the region, not so much here but   To the south-east.  This will ensure that  surface conditions   Are as favourable as possible tomorrow evening. In addition, cloud should be increasing tomorrow, especially in the west which should help to suppress temperatures. 

[karyo]

22 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 We want temperatures to drop as far as possible tonight now across the region, not so much here but   To the south-east.  This will ensure that  surface conditions   Are as favourable as possible tomorrow evening. In addition, cloud should be increasing tomorrow, especially in the west which should help to suppress temperatures. 

Here as well so that the ground gets really cold! It should be easily done tonight with the clear skies and much lighter winds.

 

The 12z ECM has also picked up the area of precipitation coming from the northwest and affecting all our region by midnight tomorrow. It has it a bit further west than the GFS so say Pennine areas only get light precipitation and moderate closer to the coast.

 

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

Edited January 15, 2016 by karyo

[Spah1]

just watched bbc forecast. The rain/snow looks like it fizzles out before it arrives! 

 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

It looks nothing like the euro 4, more like the NMM 2km, it showed about 5 hours of snow over me, i would take that in a heart beat.

[Cheshire Freeze]

15 minutes ago, karyo said:

Here as well so that the ground gets really cold! It should be easily done tonight with the clear skies and much lighter winds.

 

The 12z ECM has also picked up the area of precipitation coming from the northwest and affecting all our region by midnight tomorrow. It has it a bit further west than the GFS so say Pennine areas only get light precipitation and moderate closer to the coast.

 

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

That looks brilliant for the majority of the region. Looks to be an all snow event on that aswell.

[karyo]

14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That looks brilliant for the majority of the region. Looks to be an all snow event on that aswell.

Indeed and it is quite an upgrade from the 0z ECM which had the precipitation mainly affecting western Scotland and never making it here. The 12z has a slightly stronger block to the east forcing the band of precipitation to slide south/southeastwards affecting our region before going down to the Midlands.

On the other hand, Monday's band misses us completely on the ECM as it is further south but this means that the cold spell lasts longer which is good by me!

[SparkleS]

Freezing here again tonight, clear skies