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North West England Weather Discussion 14/11/15 Onwards

Liam J

By Liam J
in Regional

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

Wind beginning to veer now according to local obs. Temp falling very quickly now, so should record my first air frost of the winter soon. 

Temp 1.1 DP -0.3

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Darren Bown Community Regular

Darren Bown

Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
Posted
Just now, captaincroc said:

What was it previously?

Around 5pm it was showing the band sat in the Irish Sea, fizzling out, with drizzly rain on the coast.

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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted
2 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

What was it previously?

 

A bit of patchy rain in North  Wales/NW England. BBC must not be buying the GFS update then.

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Darren Bown Community Regular

Darren Bown

Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
Posted

The BBC were trying to do the week ahead outlook, but it was all over the place. Was saying risk of disruptive snow midweek, then showing most of the UK in temps of 4-7c which didn't see my o make enough sense. Also said Monday's rain would turn to snow in places, but their graphics showed no snow, just rain.

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pip22 Accomplished

pip22

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, warm weather not too hot, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

Check this change of tone from the BBC for tomorrow night!

image.png

image.png

I have already watched it. I think it is from 12z.

It recorded at 21:50. Just before 18z.

Edited by pip22
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Latest forecast just showed band of snow pushing straight through the region. They've taken the ECM track based on that which comes as no surprise as it sits middle ground. Mentioned a few cm possible NW England into the Midlands.

Edited by CreweCold
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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Author
Posted

WTF... Red snow warning for Saturday night 25cm!!!! :yahoo:

warn.thumb.PNG.bece8743aac285ad66b7f9c7b

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pip22 Accomplished

pip22

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, warm weather not too hot, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
Posted
3 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

WTF... Red snow warning for Saturday night 25cm!!!! :yahoo:

warn.thumb.PNG.bece8743aac285ad66b7f9c7b

Lets be honest about it. It will not happen.

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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted
3 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

WTF... Red snow warning for Saturday night 25cm!!!! :yahoo:

warn.thumb.PNG.bece8743aac285ad66b7f9c7b

Would love to see the boundary of that warning area. Blizzards one side and bone dry the other.

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Author
Posted
Just now, pip22 said:

Lets be honest about it. it will not happen your photo shop is crap... 

:rofl::rofl::rofl:

 

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

I'm not surprised we have no weather warnings as yet, the situation for later tomorrow remains uncertain, BBC right not to put any just yet, but I'm fully expecting at least an yellow warning for snow for much of the region come the morning - based on current forecast, something like 1-2 cms near coast on ground below 100m, 2-5cm ground between 100-200m, perhaps more in some places, and 5-10cms or more on higher ground especially in Cumbria.

They have been very late with there warnings in the last few days, sometimes just issuing them 6 hours in advance which is very late in the day, but ok if just yellow, if conditions look like producing amber then they would be issuing yellow warnings today with a note to say things could upgrade - so on this basis given suggestion of disruptive snow early next week, I would expect yellow warnings at least tomorrow for Monday/Tuesday..

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Arpege on way out....looks a good fit for the BBC forecast. Straight through NW England and into the Midlands. GFS looks to be an outlier solution....for now!

arpegeeur-2-30.png?18

 

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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Arpege on way out....looks a good fit for the BBC forecast. Straight through NW England and into the Midlands. GFS looks to be an outlier solution....for now!

arpegeeur-2-30.png?18

 

That looks too far East if anything. All good though, hopefully we should see a middle ground with most of the region being hit and most of the region being on the cold side of that front.

 

Winds have shifted more northerly here so cooling down now finally. Currently 2.1c.

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Met office/BBC rarely take the GFS, that's been said countless times by Met forecasters; Ian F included in the model thread. 

Today was a letdown. The uppers were productive yes, but with any westerly element to the wind, there's always gonna be a layer in between the surface and 850HPA which has been moderated by the Irish Sea. Surface temperatures today also reflected the significant moderation. Reaching 5C even in Manchester.

tomorrow we have the SE/SSE component at all levels, meaning no moderation. The uppers do not need to be -5C or below either. Frontal snowfalls are much different. -2/-3 is perfectly viable. I think some are in for a big surprise tomorrow. As for the warnings, December 2010's (I think) red warning wasn't issued until the event was already underway. 

The precipitation is arriving at the best time possible, right in the middle of the night. Let's see how low the temps drop tonight, which will determine the temperature maximums for tomorrow :)

edit: dew points looks fantastic!

Edited by Backtrack
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I Cumbria Marra I Seasoned

I Cumbria Marra I

Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
Posted

bbc has light snow starting at 1700 till 0200 for me but sleet and rain at 2300/0000.

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Miamay Experienced

Miamay

Posted
  • Location: Walton, Liverpool. 38m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy weather
  • Location: Walton, Liverpool. 38m asl.
Posted

Freezing cold night and nice and dry. Forcasts dont show much for Liverpool but i will keep my fingers crossed :cold:

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I Cumbria Marra I Seasoned

I Cumbria Marra I

Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
Posted

That BBC graphic just then showed rain on coasts and then turning to snow but i was just focusing on cumbria because as soon as they get to 1500 they put it on like x5 speed!

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I Cumbria Marra I Seasoned

I Cumbria Marra I

Posted
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold/snow winter, Warm/hot summer, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales
  • Location: West Cumbria, Egremont 58m (190.3ft) ASL
Posted

Met Office symbols are now sleet, please STAHP changing!

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:

That BBC graphic just then showed rain on coasts and then turning to snow but i was just focusing on cumbria because as soon as they get to 1500 they put it on like x5 speed!

That's when you know they're struggling. If they were confident they'd have zoomed in and toured around. There's a split developing over this feature. Some models say a Welsh event, some say Midlands. GFS ensembles backing the former, Euro 4 and others backing the latter.

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