Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[knocker]

Shiver me timbers. The METO have said colder for time later next week.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Shiver me timbers. The METO have said colder for time later next week.

Old hat knocker, that data from the 06z run, the 12z run is positively tropical in comparison.

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Old hat knocker, that data from the 06z run, the 12z run is positively tropical in comparison.

Ah yes a senior moment I'm afraid hadn't noticed it hadn't updated (especially as I'd already posted that chart.) Now that's more like my colour scheme

Edited February 4, 2016 by knocker

[lukemc]

It will be interesting to look at the reasons why this winter has been so mild and will be interesting to know you opinions on here would you say it is a side effect of the Super El Nino or a very cold stratosphere giving rise to a very strong polar vortex, the westerly QBO or a combination of all these factors coming together to result in this.  And is it the case that strong el ninos normally result in mild winters for NW Europe?  But in some ways we are not alone - despite the big snowstorm, most of the NE US have had a pretty mild winter with a very mild December.

I also wonder why GP has not been posting for a while do you think he has other commitments it would be interesting to here his thoughts 

 

 

Luke

Edited February 4, 2016 by lukemc

[March]

It used to be that March was the month people held onto when desperate for winter. Now April is commonly getting mentions!

Next February; Hey guys it's going to be ok, May 1346 was cold in Dartmoor. 

[PolarWarsaw]

Personally, I have already thrown the towel in on delivering anything of note. It's been another in a 3 year line now of 'Oh, the strat looks great at 10 days' or 'downdwellings will bring X synoptic within X amount of weeks'...it's in the same bracket as the buzz word of recent winter MOD threads 'potential'. Yes, potential will always show it's head at day 10, just down to the fact that models are less accurate at that range and more likely to deliver a mixed output. The simple facts have been, most of low lying Southern England have received NO/ZERO/ZILCH Snow for about 3 years now. There is no gloss to put on this, recent winters have been absolute turd for the vast majority of people who use and visit this thread. 

A cold spell may develop sometime between now and mid-March, it may not. My only hope is for a squally spring, April showers and then frequent Storms through the summer months. Before you know it, it's September again and we can start looking out for an angry Autumn followed hopefully by a more condusive La Nina winter next time around. 

However, the next stop on the 'weather calendar' is Storm season in the US. Almost guaranteed to find a talking point on average once every couple of days even during relatively quiet seasons from the end of March right the way through to the middle of June or so. If it's interest you are craving, then following this can at least give you some respite from the endless boredom and 'so close, yet so far' kind of climate the UK is offering and has offered for a good few years. 

Hopefully people can keep the spirits up - at least next year's early background signals suggest we could have something more condusive to cold/blocked. 

See everyone back in here in mid-late November! 

[lukemc]

Even though I find reading the model thread depressing most of the time when there is a poor outlook for coldies, I do however find reading what Ian Brown has to say (masquerading as Shropshire) over on TWO funny and entertaining at times - as we all know he is legendry for the modern wnter theory - you can tell he his Ian Brown by how often he uses the world "zonal" in his posts!  Also NEB who occasionally posts on here can be funny in some ways as his posts always to be about cold zonality  (or complaining about the lack of it) most of his posts mention January 1984 an interesting agenda if you ask me.

 

Luke  

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, cornish snow said:

Lol,that's some good book keeping.Or your accountant's an a-se

 

not really, i just keep my work diary up to date, but my diary did have me working which at that time of the year in that location would be mowing .  i cannot remember the event, i can only report what my diary says i did.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I looked at the temperature anomalies for January 1984 over at the NOAA/NCEP reanalysis site and they were fascinating.  Exceptional anomalies of -10 to -15 degrees near the east coasts of North America and Canada, and this cold air kept blowing right across the North Atlantic to the British Isles.  To the south of the north Midlands, there were marginal/wet snowfalls interspersed with mild interludes, due to the long sea track and the frequent intervention of secondary lows bringing tropical maritime air.  Further north, the dominant polar maritime incursions and deep lows brought repeated heavy snowfalls.  It was particularly snowy around the 21st to 25th, when this cold Atlantic regime faced opposition from fairly cold continental air, resulting in a frontal stalemate not dissimilar to that of 5-7 February 1996.  

A phenomenal month, but having looked over the Wetterzentrale charts back to the 1870s, the persistence and intensity of that setup appears to comfortably exceed anything that was seen since the late 1800s.  Indeed, I haven't been able to find many near-approaches to the cold zonal March of 1995 (the nearest approach that I lived through, and I often reminisce favourably about that month), which often had a watered-down version of the setup that dominated most of January 1984.  January 1952, January 1978 and December 1982 are a few that do stick out, plus Decembers 1993 and 1999 in the north.

As Weather-history alluded to in a post a few days ago, while many people complain about us being too far west, the main reason why we don't get much snow from westerlies is that we are too far east.  If the British Isles was about 500 miles further west, "westerly" snowfalls would probably be quite common.  Indeed, with that persistent cold anomaly in the North Atlantic combined with a persistently zonal pattern, the winters of 2014/15 and 2015/16 would both have ended up pretty snowy.  But with the UK being where it is, the days of widespread lowland snowfall from westerlies are rare, and their existence probably endangered.

Edited February 4, 2016 by Thundery wintry showers

[jethro]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

oddly enough, i was working on tuesday 4/4/00 , mowing at a school (checking work records)... maybe your snow event was localised?

That surprises me (not doubting you) but according to the info in the link I posted, the snow 2nd-4th April 2000 was fairly widespread.

As well as the usual spots in Scotland heavy snow affected Midlands, Northern England, Wales, SW England and Central Southern England with many road closures in Yorkshire, County Durham and Derbyshire.

 

[Thundery wintry showers]

The 4th April 2000 even had a covering of snow at Hastings early in the day.  The period 2nd-4th April 2000 saw falling sleet or snow almost everywhere.  It was a very marginal and persistent frontal setup and so many lowland places saw no lying snow, but high ground plus some low-lying areas saw large accumulations.  The fronts cleared away south-eastwards during the 4th, followed by a mix of sunshine and scattered sleet/snow/hail showers.

Edited February 4, 2016 by Thundery wintry showers

[I remember Atlantic 252]

31 minutes ago, lukemc said:

Even though I find reading the model thread depressing most of the time when there is a poor outlook for coldies, I do however find reading what Ian Brown has to say (masquerading as Shropshire) over on TWO funny and entertaining at times - as we all know he is legendry for the modern wnter theory - you can tell he his Ian Brown by how often he uses the world "zonal" in his posts!  Also NEB who occasionally posts on here can be funny in some ways as his posts always to be about cold zonality  (or complaining about the lack of it) most of his posts mention January 1984 an interesting agenda if you ask me.

 

Luke  

NEB and Jan '84, bloody 'eck never

[jethro]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

 

 

That's the one. I was moving house that day, trying to get vast Pickfords lorries through the narrow Mendip lanes was a nightmare.

That report is from a village called Priddy, if there's snow about you're guaranteed to find it there. You'd also be guaranteed to find me and my old man plus many others who have been out playing in Landrovers, buggies and the like, propping up the bar in the brilliant pub. Anyone who fancies a tour around Somerset, put Priddy on the list of places to visit, it's a lovely, unspoilt village, very friendly locals and the best pub grub for miles around.

[78/79]

Built 1 house, an extension , and a garage in Priddy , Reg Payne used to live in the one in the background

19 minutes ago, jethro said:

That's the one. I was moving house that day, trying to get vast Pickfords lorries through the narrow Mendip lanes was a nightmare.

That report is from a village called Priddy, if there's snow about you're guaranteed to find it there. You'd also be guaranteed to find me and my old man plus many others who have been out playing in Landrovers, buggies and the like, propping up the bar in the brilliant pub. Anyone who fancies a tour around Somerset, put Priddy on the list of places to visit, it's a lovely, unspoilt village, very friendly locals and the best pub grub for miles around.

 

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

Built 1 house, an extension , and a garage in Priddy , Reg Payne used to live in the one in the background

 

Who?

[cornish snow]

12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Who?

you never heard of Reg Payne?

 

[jethro]

22 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

Built 1 house, an extension , and a garage in Priddy , Reg Payne used to live in the one in the background

 

No idea who owns it but they really get my goat. Next door is a beautiful barn and house (circa 18thc) which also belongs to them, despite numerous offers they won't sell - fine but they won't maintain it either. Last winter the roof fell in, it's slowly falling down, another bit of Mendip history lost.

[jethro]

3 minutes ago, cornish snow said:

you never heard of Reg Payne?

 

Infamous around these parts.

[Frosty.]

27 minutes ago, jethro said:

Infamous around these parts.

Does he own west country car sales by any chance?

[knocker]

Looking at this evening's ecm I can't see what all the excitements about.

 

[Spah1]

[Methuselah]

43 minutes ago, cornish snow said:

you never heard of Reg Payne?

 

Nyet. But I have heard of Cynthia Payne and Reg Varney. Do they count?

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

Looking at this evening's ecm I can't see what all the excitements about.

 

Knocker why are you in here all the time where there is hardly anyone to read your posts? a popular poster like you should be in the model output discussion..what's going on, did someone upset you?

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, Karl. said:

Knocker why are you in here all the time where there is hardly anyone to read your posts? a popular poster like you should be in the model output discussion..what's going on, did someone upset you?

You could say that Karl.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

You could say that Karl.

Sorry to hear that knocker