Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Cheshire Freeze]

We still get a surge of WAA into the Arctic though. I suspect the long game shall be more rewarding. Still looking at a different polar profile into the new year...something that has been advertised for a while.

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM pretty much going a similar way, a strong ridge through Europe with some definite probing of the tropospheric vortex.

To be honest whatever model you look at the end of the year is looking mild, in fact the current output is pushing us perilously close to achieving a double figure CET for December which is completely unthinkable.

Going forward there is definite pressure over the pole with ridging over Europe and in the Pacific potentially, this should hopefully create something interesting down the line, but for the moment it is probably more of the same with mild weather prevailing with quite a lot of rain in northern and western areas at times.

[TomDav]

Huge siberian High on GFS

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Captain Shortwave said:

The ECM pretty much going a similar way, a strong ridge through Europe with some definite probing of the tropospheric vortex.

To be honest whatever model you look at the end of the year is looking mild, in fact the current output is pushing us perilously close to achieving a double figure CET for December which is completely unthinkable.

Going forward there is definite pressure over the pole with ridging over Europe and in the Pacific potentially, this should hopefully create something interesting down the line, but for the moment it is probably more of the same with mild weather prevailing with quite a lot of rain in northern and western areas at times.

Completely agree, nothing to be despondent about going forward. With so much pressure on the tropospheric vortex, it should only be a matter of time before we get better fragmentation and more interesting charts for the UK.

[Dorsetbred]

27 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM looks as ghastly as this mornings run, deeper shortwave ,further west, poor phasing, no ejection east of this. I hope this clarifies why I'm constantly droning on about shortwaves. You can see the big difference this makes.

The GFS/UKMO at T144hrs are similar tonight in terms of pattern and shortwave, the ECM to be renamed the Scrooge of Christmas just shot Bambi!

T168hrs update we thought Bambi was dead but there might be a weak pulse.

Crash team called! Bambi declared dead at T192hrs!

Apologies for all these film analogies, its my coping mechanism when faced with dire output!

More over the top posts from me is always correlated with poor cold potential.

Nick, don't worry, the days start grow longer from Wednesday, so spring will soon be here

I remember lots of folks saying "Don't watch run after run or you will commit suicide".. Present models are keen to drive everybody that way for the time being.

Edited December 21, 2015 by Dorsetbred

[blizzard81]

ECM 192hr chart shows 1035 high over the north eastern US seaboard, replaced by 1000 low pressure on the 216hr chart. Seems very progressive to me!

[nick sussex]

 

13 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

The ECM pretty much going a similar way, a strong ridge through Europe with some definite probing of the tropospheric vortex.

To be honest whatever model you look at the end of the year is looking mild, in fact the current output is pushing us perilously close to achieving a double figure CET for December which is completely unthinkable.

Going forward there is definite pressure over the pole with ridging over Europe and in the Pacific potentially, this should hopefully create something interesting down the line, but for the moment it is probably more of the same with mild weather prevailing with quite a lot of rain in northern and western areas at times.

A double figure Dec CET would be astonishing. The PV is in absolutely the worst position to just keep pumping up the Euro high. I think its now looking like the worst ever start to the skiing season for the Alps and Pyrenees with the whole festive period effected. No sign of any snow within the next ten days. Its remarkable that theres any skiing at all, most of any snow came nearly a month ago, without snow cannons there would be even more resort closures.

Edited December 21, 2015 by nick sussex

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

 

A double figure Dec CET would be astonishing. The PV is in absolutely the worst position to just keep pumping up the Euro high. I think its now looking like the worst ever start to the skiing season for the Alps and Pyrenees with the whole festive period effected. No sign of any snow within the next ten days. Its remarkable that theres any skiing at all, most of any snow came nearly a month ago, without snow cannons there would be even more resort closures.

No other way to describe the last two ECM runs. Absolutely shockingly poor for coldies!

[nick sussex]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

No other way to describe the last two ECM runs. Absolutely shockingly poor for coldies!

I could use more choice language for it! lol I feel like I've been hit by a time warp continuim and have been catapulted back to 1988!

The thing then I was younger and lived in London and there was no internet!

In terms of the outputs its a shame the ECM didn't at least follow the GFS/UKMO, at least that would give something to work from. I much prefer to have the ECM/UKMO together against the GFS.

I would be shocked if those phasing/shortwaves issues aren't agreed on tomorrow morning given the differences are as early as T96hrs.

 

[carinthian]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 

A double figure Dec CET would be astonishing. The PV is in absolutely the worst position to just keep pumping up the Euro high. I think its now looking like the worst ever start to the skiing season for the Alps and Pyrenees with the whole festive period effected. No sign of any snow within the next ten days. Its remarkable that theres any skiing at all, most of any snow came nearly a month ago, without snow cannons there would be even more resort closures.

Nick, I think I have a revulsion towards Euro High. Week after week of more of the same. (ie) drought conditions, constant sun beating down and not a snow flake forecast for hell in ages. The far reaches of tonights ECM confirms much the same old story. The warmth in Western Europe this month has been astonishing. That chart is about as bad as it gets for snow potential , especially across mainland Europe and Alps. I think I need help now. Have folk touring in a couple of weeks and no snow for them.

 C

[Frosty.]

Cheer up guys it's Christmas!

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, carinthian said:

Nick, I think I have a revulsion towards Euro High. Week after week of more of the same. (ie) drought conditions, constant sun beating down and not a snow flake forecast for hell in ages. The far reaches of tonights ECM confirms much the same old story. The warmth in Western Europe this month has been astonishing. That chart is about as bad as it gets for snow potential , especially across mainland Europe and Alps. I think I need help now. Have folk touring in a couple of weeks and no snow for them.

 C

Yes I now detest the sight of that Euro high! In terms of help the best I can do is on the psychological front in terms of coping mechanisms and ways to self-soothe! in terms of the synoptics I wish I could work a miracle! I was hoping we could get high pressure further nw to force some trough disruption and help to dig the jet further se into mainland Europe. The problem is that PV is looking incredibly strong. The MJO is now looking even more important, whether a phase 7 happens and how much impact it has we'll only know nearer the time.

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Cheer up guys it's Christmas!

As i look out the window id be forgiven for thinking its may april or may.What an abysmal nov and dec us coldies have had to endure

To cap it all ecm is again playing scrooge with a sinking sceuro high, i know its an ian brown quote and i hate it but looking at ecm day 10 tonight its a long way to cold from there, rampant PV and a vile euro high.

[Singularity]

I find the fact that ECM deepens the shortwave low so much at +96 hours somewhat encouraging, as it's that which encourages amplification and a slower movement at a time when we don't want it (i.e. the following 24 hours or so), and these kind of compact lows are often overcooked by the models. In fact ECM may be particularly prone to this, though I've no stats to actually prove this.

The other models have a shallower low that doesn't 'lever' the jet stream ahead of it (i.e. across the UK) to the north, allowing the shortwave to move more east between +96 and +120. It then escapes merging with the trough, the trough doesn't deepen dramatically and the blocking to our E and NE is better able to hold on in the face of the Atlantic westerlies. This helps to sustain the WAA into the polar regions for longer or at least in a more interesting location with respect to the UK.

So there you have it - Nick's not the only one who talks about shortwaves 

[legritter]

I for one am not going to get sucked into the end of Tonights ECM run ,there is plenty of scatter around and at present i would not be surprised if tomorrows runs look totally different .

With all the advances with computers satellites etc looking 10 days ahead and trying to get areas of high pressure and low pressure centres pin pointed is still a game of gradual accurancey and i feel we are no where near that at present .so with high pressure being modelled in the medium range and some pretty potent low pressure systems around all i can hope for now is some very interesting weather to be had ,that will keep me interested and we all know in our hearts that in a few weeks time we Could be digging ourselves out from 3 meter drifts or walking down the high st in shorts or even canoeing up the road let alone getting lost in freezing fog ,so for us modell [weather ] watchers cheer up  theres always tomorrow ,crack open the STellas and roll on tomorrow ,cheers gang 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening! I think the theme between Christmas and New year is the potential stormy weather across the nation ,alternating with milder and colder spells, really a traditional mix of weather ,typical for this time of year, plenty of time for Winter has its only just begun, but batten down the hatches as we close 2015,

[tinybill]

1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening! I think the theme between Christmas and New year is the potential stormy weather across the nation ,alternating with milder and colder spells, really a traditional mix of weather ,typical for this time of year, plenty of time for Winter has its only just begun, but batten down the hatches as we close 2015,

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

if fantasy world  happens  their could easily  be problems again   in the  uk  as  its  looking wet and very wild  at the  moment

[Froze were the Days]

4 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

It's like groundhog day in here, same discussion about MJO at this time last year .....

Same phasing (red line) as last year, give a week or so .....did it do any good then?  

 

yes...well remembered, numerous posts about an iminent SSW too towards the end of December and then into January last winter. El-nino pattern/West based QBO so far which was predicted to be 'front loaded' this winter has been fairly well forecast so far but a big question mark on the SSW for next month...

Edited December 21, 2015 by Froze were the Days

[Woollymummy]

I love that cute little thermometer GIF.

I just remembered something about unexpected snow, one NYE my hubby was playing a gig at the South Bank Centre so we got to watch the fireworks over the Thames which was awesome and inspiring and loud and beautiful, and was immediately followed by sudden snow, which surprised us all and was beautiful and kept the kids happy while we packed the van to go our hotel. Maybe something fun and unexpected and snowy will happen to some of us this winter, maybe it won't, but the fact that it might will always keep us hanging on and checking and wishing.

As we will be up in Gateshead this NYE, we have a slightly better chance of needing to wear woolly hats at least 

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Woollymummy said:

I love that cute little thermometer GIF.

I just remembered something about unexpected snow, one NYE my hubby was playing a gig at the South Bank Centre so we got to watch the fireworks over the Thames which was awesome and inspiring and loud and beautiful, and was immediately followed by sudden snow, which surprised us all and was beautiful and kept the kids happy while we packed the van to go our hotel. Maybe something fun and unexpected and snowy will happen to some of us this winter, maybe it won't, but the fact that it might will always keep us hanging on and checking and wishing.

As we will be up in Gateshead this NYE, we have a slightly better chance of needing to wear woolly hats at least 

Nice post woollymummy, it gets way too serious in here so it was a pleasant change to read your christmas thoughts.

Edited December 21, 2015 by Frosty.

[Weather Observer]

For when the good times do roll,  would anyone know of a link with tips of how to post charts etc to back up comments? Or is this something we have all been taught in school and backwoodsmen like me should carry on with honing their axes. 

thankyou

[Polar Maritime]

4 minutes ago, Weathervane said:

For when the good times do roll,  would anyone know of a link with tips of how to post charts etc to back up comments? Or is this something we have all been taught in school and backwoodsmen like me should carry on with honing their axes. 

thankyou

Take a look or ask here where im sure one of us will help pronto Weathervane, And welcome to the forum 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/16103-need-help-on-the-siteforum/

Edited December 21, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Duane S.]

Well, the weather chart gods are not exactly getting into the festive spirt at the moment. My finger is hovering of the cancel holiday button as am due to fly out to the Northern Alps on the 3rd of January :-( Going to give it till Boxing Day (in hope more than expectation) but it is now evident that am now going to need an almighty turnaround ASAP to remove that high in the short term. The Atlantic low is only going to contribute to matters as it continues to feed it for the foreseeable.

For the UK we have to be thinking no pain no gain here, hope for strong vertical advection of warm air to our East (to our west will likely just be flattened and the effects negated) into polar regions and forget about the inevitable associated warmth this will bring. This will at least shake up the NH profile to one degree or another and MAY, just MAY be the the first falling domino of the xx amount needed to bring in a proper cold spell. 

[joggs]

Is there any particular reason why the damned (main part)of the vortex is more often than not,limpeted to bl*ody Greenland?!?!?

Grrrrrr

Edited December 21, 2015 by joggs

[NorthernRab]

6 minutes ago, joggs said:

Is there any particular reason why the damned (main part)of the vortex is more often than not,limpeted to bl*ody Greenland?!?!?

Grrrrrr

The fact that it's a giant ice cube the size of Europe surrounding by relatively mild waters?