Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[mulzy]

Last night's short-term CFS gives the best possible solution at day 10.

 

Edited December 21, 2015 by mulzy

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Last night's short-term CFS gives the best possible solution at day 10.

 

Now that would even bring TEITS out of hibernation

[Ali1977]

Unfortunately the METO are having non of a potential Easterly flow; so I imagine the signal will drop completely over the next day or so!! 

Lets hope however that the building blocks start falling into place for some changes before Mid Jan. The rapid cooling of Eastern Europe may come in handy for any potential cold spells, especially if from the east.

Edited December 21, 2015 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

I wonder how many have spotted the mean upper ridge building week 2 over Alaska, driven by the Aleutian low?

its a big IF, but IF the size and shape of that sceuro ridge have driven enough WAA into the arctic prior to this then we could see a significant double pronged attack on the vortex.  That would drive some effective wave activity into the strat aswell. 

My point is not to worry too much about what this sceuro ridge might deliver for nw Europe now, but what it could do in January as a consequence. See it as a building block for the second half of winter rather than a potential delivery van for an easterly now. 

That's the viewpoint I've taken for a good while now.

[feb1991blizzard]

The ECM does have a an Alaskan ridge but the sceuro ridge doesn't deliver enough WAA.

[Weather Boy]

1 hour ago, mulzy said:

Last night's short-term CFS gives the best possible solution at day 10.

 

Yep, CFS says it, so it's 100% nailed on.

To be fair, CFS was saying mild - mild - mild for now a lot further in advance, and it was right.  Other than those recent predictions, it has generally been a chocolate teapot though.  No doubt, when it's showing an easterly, it's completely wrong. 

Edited December 21, 2015 by Weather Boy
unclear acronym

[Liam J]

Looks like the GFS 6z is ditching it's idea from the last few runs and is looking more like the ECM. 

[karlos1983]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Unfortunately the METO are having non of a potential Easterly flow; so I imagine the signal will drop completely over the next day or so!! 

Lets hope however that the building blocks start falling into place for some changes before Mid Jan. The rapid cooling of Eastern Europe may come in handy for any potential cold spells, especially if from the east.

That is a little misleading Ali, the last paragraph on the long range fcst (4th-18th) reads " Looking towards the second week of January there is a chance that pressure will rise in the south bringing more settled and drier, but perhaps colder conditions. However, unsettled weather is expected to continue in the north." 

Although I am a little confused as to how High Pressure in the south with unsettled conditions in the north would bring anything of a cold nature.......

 

EDIT: and shuffling through the GEFS Purbs is somewhat of a depressing waste of time, none paint a particularly cold picture.. 

 

 

 

Edited December 21, 2015 by karlos1983

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Looks like the GFS 6z is ditching it's idea from the last few runs and is looking more like the ECM. 

What idea has the Gfs 6z ditched? and for those who haven't seen the Ecm 00z, what is it showing?

[blizzard81]

15 hours ago, nick sussex said:

12 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Looks like the GFS 6z is ditching it's idea from the last few runs and is looking more like the ECM. 

Same old story. ECM up until yesterday going big for amplification. GFS up until yesterday was having none of it. ECM jumped ship yesterday but lo and behold, the GFS jumped on board. No doubt GFS will now jump ship. Happens all the time, you have to laugh or you will cry.

 

Edited December 21, 2015 by blizzard81

[Liam J]

19 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

What idea has the Gfs 6z ditched? and for those who haven't seen the Ecm 00z, what is it showing?

Well for those who've been following the thread since yesterday I'm sure they already know what the GFS & ECM were showing? And all the charts are free for all to view so they can make up their own minds if they want to. But the 6z is ditching the idea of strong height rises over Scandinavia and is now going with SW'ly winds post Christmas like the ECM has been showing consistently. 

GFS went from this, 1045mb Scandi.   To this. 

 

 

Edited December 21, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Ravelin]

9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

What idea has the Gfs 6z ditched?

I'm assuming he means going from this....

To this....

Which isn't exactly a great change*.

*I was going to say 'trend', but one run doesn't make it a trend. Not yet anyway.

[blizzard81]

Now I am all for patience but there is no getting away from the fact that the lions share of the pv is again located in just the wrong place (to our north west) for the UK. Such a persistent signal for this winter thus far and very foreboding.

[Polar Maritime]

The 6z shows some chances of snow falling Christmas Eve/Day for the spine of the country and parts of Scotland.

 

Into the run, And the turn of the Month continues to show the Jet drop a little further South, Dragging cooler more seasonal Pm air from the N/W over the UK turning Northerly at times as per last few frames. Bringing unsettled wintry conditions. These set-ups can produce some fantastic surprise snowfalls, No deep cold yet and that was never going to be the case at the flick of a switch given the strong pattern we have been locked in over the past Month. So some positive 'realistic' signs of things turning at least more seasonal, After some wild swings over the past few days as the models toy'd with conflicting background signals.

Edited December 21, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[mulzy]

Relax folks - GFS 6z gives us a 1-day toppler out at day 15!  That might give me a frost (possibly!)!!

Back to reality - the signs for any cold snowy weather are almost nil for the majority of lowland Britain.  It's a case of 'jam tomorrow' from some of the long range experts on here.

I would stick to the MO outlook - same old, becoming drier in the South (probably the persistent Euro high pushing a little bit north).

 

Edited December 21, 2015 by mulzy

[booferking]

The GFS control seems to be sticking to its last runs still hope yet maybe.

[Ali1977]

Last night vs 2010...

[nick sussex]

Some ghastly outputs this morning in terms of cold potential.

The ECM continues to flatten the pattern out and develops the strongest shortwave, long gone is the upstream low running in towards the Great Lakes which correlated with a more favourable upstream pattern.

The GFS 00hrs flirted with another shortwave drama by somehow phasing this and ejecting it eastwards this relies though on sufficient upstream amplification which its now dropped on the 06hrs run.

The UKMO is actually an improvement on last nights horror show but that's often slow to the races, it always turns up to the party as everyone is leaving.

The ECM ensembles have largely dropped any colder solutions and the mean is on the rise, a few cold stragglers avoided the mild bloodbath but we're not sure if the emergency services will get there in time!

For those that know my posting style you know its bad news when the melodramatic language starts coming out!

As I said a few days ago this issue of phasing was crucial and sadly its all gone pearshaped and then with a less favourable upstream pattern that adds to finish off any colder chances.

In terms of any strawclutching I have gone to emergency code red! Theres still some uncertainty with the pattern in the eastern USA. We're waiting for the MJO update which comes out later this afternoon, that might hold out some hope.

The Euro high just doesn't want to move away and is responding to the location of the PV which simply drives the pattern ne. Unless the PV either moves further east or much further west then I don't see much changing which sadly is bad news for us coldies and even worser news for the ski resorts which are facing a disastrous time.

I'm beginning to wonder whether it will ever rain here again and snow in the Pyrenees, the drought is astonishing I can only remember about 5 days of rain in over two months here.

Edited December 21, 2015 by nick sussex

[Liam J]

The new GFS parallel 00z did build heights over Scandinavia but just an extension of the Euro high, by day 10 GFSP shows a similar pattern to the ECM.

   GFSP  ECM 

[MPG]

Seems a change of pattern with regard to the Scandi region with some sort of HP positioned somewhere (meaning the models have no idea just yet). As for the UK, the same theme of westerly with rain. Lots of talk about this high pressure, but not one chart has shown this change of pattern over Scandi directly effecting our shores (well unless your talking about it becoming even milder or about the same).

Edited December 21, 2015 by MPG

[booferking]

Still quite a few showing a nice block.

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, booferking said:

Still quite a few showing a nice block.

Lack of any significant cold over the continent though!

 

[bobbydog]

some very interesting end solutions amongst the GEFS, very few of which are showing mild.

i wouldnt call this winter over yet by any means....

[booferking]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Lack of any significant cold over the continent though!

 

True but still a chance of this to upgrade closer to the time im not giving up yet

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

some very interesting end solutions amongst the GEFS, very few of which are showing mild.

i wouldnt call this winter over yet by any means....

You mean it actually started? lol As for the GEFS ensembles yes theres some interest shown in the darkest reaches of FI but I'd ignore these until there are concrete signs of change within max T240hrs.  The only variable I can see at present that might bring about some changes is the MJO, although this is subject to much debate in terms of whether its a faux signal or a real one and whether it can survive the El Nino onslaught. The update comes out later this afternoon, perhaps that might offer some good news.