Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[MR EXTREMES]

realistic look at the ecm see,s a rinse repeat situation typical nino forcing but weak mjo signals its amazing how close we come in fi recently to epic northern blocking only for it to dwindle away into more of the same.

but will the wave developements into the strat deliver the final blow to open the doors long over due northern blocking but i fear we need rapid nino cool down and couple that with wave activity and decline in vortex power.

surely after few years of a very dominant vortex something must give sooner or later.

but id rather fear the worse when it comes to uk winters.

but judging by the ecm fi chart there does seem to be a push to lower heights both west of spain and from the east but looks like the euro heights want to dominated id rather see heights futher north east into a true scandi high.

[SylvainTV]

On 19/12/2015 at 10:00 AM, bluearmy said:

If sylvain is viewing, I note the ECM parallel is now showing some data on weatherbell re surface conditions. No charts re slp or heights etc.  would be good to see the para ECM op on meteociel to compare with the para gfs. 

Yes it would be nice, but unfortunately, it's not available for free. Only the paying customers are getting these data. Some info about this future version of ECMWF on https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Detailed+information+of+implementation+of+IFS+cycle+41r2 . It's supposed to go public in March 2016.  New GFS in April/May 2016. 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, SylvainTV said:

Yes it would be nice, but unfortunately, it's not available for free. Only the paying customers are getting these data. Some info about this future version of ECMWF on https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Detailed+information+of+implementation+of+IFS+cycle+41r2 . It's supposed to go public in March 2016.  New GFS in April/May 2016. 

Hi, do you know if the GEFS 10mb temperature charts will be switched on or not please?, they were available until the upgrade, I know they are available elsewhere but its just handy as I use meteociel for almost all the model output I view.

[Mucka]

Improvement on the GFS 12z with the pattern further West at least

 

 

Cold Arctic air tantalisingly close.

 

Edit.

 

Develops a bit of a monster ridge, the vortex won't like that.

 

 

UKMO very different.

 

 

Edited December 20, 2015 by Mucka

[SylvainTV]

18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hi, do you know if the GEFS 10mb temperature charts will be switched on or not please?, they were available until the upgrade, I know they are available elsewhere but its just handy as I use meteociel for almost all the model output I view.

They will be here for the GEFS 12Z  The problem is that NOAA/NCEP split differently data between A and B files for the 0.5° resolution data... Have to get different fields from both files now.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, SylvainTV said:

They will be here for the GEFS 12Z  The problem is that NOAA/NCEP split differently data between A and B files for the 0.5° resolution data... Have to get different fields from both files now.

Thanks very much.

[Mucka]

Surprised by the lack of comment on the improvements shown in the GFS 12z as far as future blocking/cold prospects go.

Chances are we would see a disrupting low rather than the ball shaped low GFS has here and that would lead to good prospects.

 

Main takeaway though is that the pattern is further West and more amplified, if that becomes a trend we will be in business come January.

Edited December 20, 2015 by Mucka

[SMU]

The 12z GFS continues to chase after the ECMs evolution from yesterday -

i cant post images however at 144 the GFS ( same as 12z ECM yest) develops a ridge to the NW yesterday

This ridge is going to be crucial in allowing the WAA to set up over the UK promoting the development of the scandi ridge

It also allows the altantic low to be negative tilted - supporting some undercutting  ....

 

little acorns....

S

[nick sussex]

You can see the difference the different handling of shortwaves makes to the pattern. The UKMO is a poor outcome for cold chances and deepens the shortwave and phases this with the upstream troughing.

The GFS almost managed to separate the shortwave but still phases this but further west and its a weaker feature. Its incredibly frustrating because the GFS has an amplified upstream trough and with a clean separation of that shortwave more energy would head se from the trough and pressure would rise much quicker to the north.

By such small margins in a global sense makes a huge difference in this type of set up. The GFS hangs on for dear life in FI, the UKMO would have zero chance of getting anywhere even close to that.

 

 

[bobbydog]

suck it up...!!!!

 

[Rocheydub]

All to be taken with a large pinch of seasonable salt at this distance, but it is refreshing to see some output that at least generates interest!

[Cloud 10]

The recently refurbished GEM in pretty much the same ballpark as the GFS.

 

[bobbydog]

SNOW WARS

a new hope...

 

[Cloud 10]

Has TEITS been at the GFS controls?

 

[AWD]

1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

Has TEITS been at the GFS controls?

 

Even with a good SLP pattern, the upper air well around the UK is very modified going by that.

[Rocheydub]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

Even with a good SLP pattern, the upper air well around the UK is very modified going by that.

You are of course correct, but it's absolutely pointless looking at 850's at this range.

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

You are of course correct, but it's absolutely pointless looking at 850's at this range.

It's not far off "pointless" looking at any level of heights/air temps at that range on an individual Op run.

Wonder where this Op run sit's in the pressure ensemble suite for Lapland?

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, AWD said:

It's not far off "pointless" looking at any level of heights/air temps at that range on an individual Op run.

Wonder where this Op run sit's in the pressure ensemble suite for Lapland?

It will be an outlier. The others will show much higher pressure up there  hee hee!

[ANYWEATHER]

Hi, has anyone noticed the gfs 12z chart viewer has not been updated?

[cornish snow]

9 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Hi, has anyone noticed the gfs 12z chart viewer has not been updated?

Yep,stuck on 6z,frustrating

[IDO]

No nearer drawing a definitive conclusion. The GFS op has support with about 8 ensemble members having similar synoptics, but then the Control also has similar support for very little amplification:

D10 op:   D10 control:    

The other members have other variations. Looking further ahead and the GFS op is one of the most optimistic at keeping the Scandi High. The above pressure graph shows that the op has little support for blowing up that low and probably correspondingly maintaining the Scandi high.

Pure guesswork how this is going to develop, as the models are not giving much away. It does look like the ECM is also split between scenarios based on the ensembles from the 0z so probably best to wait and see how it gets resolved.

ECM ENS: 

Edited December 20, 2015 by IDO

[snowice]

Well I was afraid to come out of hibernation last few weeks in case my snowice melted  I feel a change comming, last few runs are showing the pv weaking I agree with js it only takes small changes for a different output to occur, 2009 Dec was mild and mushy and we all no what happened a few weeks later.ecm will be interesting and I think this board will be buzzing with

 

[Duane S.]

Come on folks, from our current sorry state, if we can't wax lyrical over this 12z GFS run, then I'm not sure exactly when we can.

Of course it won't verify like this but tie it in with the ECM's recent output, MJO forecasts still looking promising (best 2 below)

+ It is not without decent support...

and things are starting to look up, perhaps a bit earlier than expected?

 

No surprise to see where the biggest spread is and at what time-frame...

 

[The PIT]

25 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Mind the Gap!!!

 

An FI hiccup in the relentless theme of recent weeks. Pity we can't shift it a bit westward. Nice cold pool sitting over middle of Europe. It'll be interesting if ECM presents a similar pattern

[Spurry]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Hi, has anyone noticed the gfs 12z chart viewer has not been updated?

Yes , why is it still not up , so far it's only upto +75

Edited December 20, 2015 by Spurry