Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[nick sussex]

The ECM going the same way as the UKMO with a poor phasing and the deeper shortwave. Upstream its dropped its low which ran through to the Great Lakes, this originally correlated with a more favourable upstream pattern.

I would be shocked if the ECM ensembles show the same amount of colder solutions as this mornings. What might look like small issues on a global scale the matter of the shortwave phasing makes the difference between a chance and zero chance of cold.

Overall another dismal night for cold prospects bar the GFS which I fear will back track towards the Euros, looks like another opportunity goes begging with the troughing to the west digging south but the shortwave curse strikes again.

Hopes for any changes will probably be down to whether the MJO can actually survive with a decent amplitude into phase 7.

I really hope I'm wrong but just can't see this Euro high morphing into anything at the moment bar a complete nuisance and a continuing disaster for the ski resorts.

Hopefully I'll be eating humble pie tomorrow morning when the models perform a Christmas miracle!

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the ECM and JMA are out now

JMA

This could be promising.....

ECM

No comment needed here, a mild end at the end with a long fetch southerly becoming south westerly.

At least there are operationals trying to develop something more promising but at the moment the ensembles are in general still pointing at a mild end to the year and the start of 2016. Still this could change, even the better solutions are in the "slow burner" category with conditions remaining fairly mild until a cold pool has the opportunity to drift westwards.

Edited December 20, 2015 by Captain Shortwave

[bradymk]

Disappointing ECM after the good 12z GFS. +192 JMA and GFS very similar though. This afternoon Day 9 ECM chart very different to yesterdays 10 day. 

[blizzard81]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM going the same way as the UKMO with a poor phasing and the deeper shortwave. Upstream its dropped its low which ran through to the Great Lakes, this originally correlated with a more favourable upstream pattern.

I would be shocked if the ECM ensembles show the same amount of colder solutions as this mornings. What might look like small issues on a global scale the matter of the shortwave phasing makes the difference between a chance and zero chance of cold.

Overall another dismal night for cold prospects bar the GFS which I fear will back track towards the Euros, looks like another opportunity goes begging with the troughing to the west digging south but the shortwave curse strikes again.

Hopes for any changes will probably be down to whether the MJO can actually survive with a decent amplitude into phase 7.

I really hope I'm wrong but just can't see this Euro high morphing into anything at the moment bar a complete nuisance and a continuing disaster for the ski resorts.

Hopefully I'll be eating humble pie tomorrow morning when the models perform a Christmas miracle!

Very disappointing ECM op tonight. I was not expecting that to be honest. The recent ECM ops were the most bullish regarding amplification, GFS wasn't. Total role reversal on tonight's ops. Why does this seem to happen so often I wonder?

[ANYWEATHER]

16 minutes ago, Spurry said:

Yes , why is it still not up , so far it's only upto +75

Yes it is very late, not sure why?

[Liam J]

ECM a party pooper this evening! I don't think many of us will be surprised though... Imagine the next GFS run will look different again unless it's picking out a trend?! But it's quite a bit different from the previous run and I personally would never bet anything on the GFS being right over the ECM, even though it can happen, as Nick S says above Euro's vs GFS and that doesn't normally end well for GFS... 

[chris55]

Much much better GFS 12z, with a more favourable "lean" to the incoming Atlantic lows. Id say the little Iceland ridge that has been popping up around Xmas is helping to drive the Atlantic energy slightly further south around 144 allowing for the more favourable shaping which in turns builds the Scandi ridge. Overall a very nice pattern setting up on the 12z op. Only one run and little support. But if you look at the Moscow ens there is a trend for a big dip in 850s there, although the trough digging south on ECM would deliver a transient cold spell over there those sustained cold runs must come from the same overall pattern as the 12z GFS. Something to keep an eye on al least!!

 

Iceland ridge

"backwards lean" of the Atlantic .

 

Moscow ens

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[phil nw.]

2 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

ECM a party pooper this evening! I don't think many of us will be surprised though... Imagine the next GFS run will look different again unless it's picking out a trend?! But it's quite a bit different from the previous run and I personally would never bet anything on the GFS being right over the ECM, even though it can happen, as Nick S says above Euro's vs GFS and that doesn't normally end well for GFS... 

Indeed.

I have a feeling this Scandi High tease will torment us for a while as we enter the NY.The height anomalies, although not everyone's cuppa, have modeled these for a while.This pattern looks like taking us into early January,for how long is uncertain but those +ve height anomalies look like continuing to the end of the 12z naefs run.

What we don't need is this setup to hang around for too long if it's not going to develop in to a proper Scandinavian high, or worse still,morph into another Euro high.That would lock in the Atlantic trough to the west keeping us in the mild air from the south west for a further period.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, phil nw. said:

Indeed.

I have a feeling this Scandi High tease will torment us for a while as we enter the NY.The height anomalies, although not everyone's cuppa, have modeled these for a while.This pattern looks like taking us into early January,for how long is uncertain but those +ve height anomalies look like continuing to the end of the 12z naefs run.

What we don't need is this setup to hang around for too long if it's not going to develop in to a proper Scandinavian high, or worse still,morph into another Euro high.That would lock in the Atlantic trough to the west keeping us in the mild air from the south west for a further period.

 

Surely the longer it hangs around though, the more chance it has of digging at the Stratospheric vortex though.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Do we call this a Sceuro? Negatively tilted?  It is in my mind and positioning makes all the difference it could move to very mild or move to bring seasonal cold.  What follows on GFS run is a 1987 event.....if only

 

#

1987 incoming

 

 

Edited December 20, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[phil nw.]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Surely the longer it hangs around though, the more chance it has of digging at the Stratospheric vortex though.

If it really digs well north blizzard.Currently the ens favour mmore a Scuero cell which locks the mild pattern eating up time.

These Scandi.High's are historically often teasers with the occasional success.I showed one yesterday from Feb 1991 which did make the grade after a couple of failed attempts.We can't rule out something good down the line but i am not seeing this yet.

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

If it really digs well north blizzard.Currently the ens favour mmore a Scuero cell which locks the mild pattern eating up time.

These Scandi.High's are historically often teasers with the occasional success.I showed one yesterday from Feb 1991 which did make the grade after a couple of failed attempts.We can't rule out something good down the line but i am not seeing this yet.

Yes its better if its sharper tbh like a knife shape slicing through the polar regions, the classic was Jan 1987 as well.

 

Nothing good showing yet, we will need to see a Strat response before we can with reasonable confidence forecast a bitter blocked cold spell.

Edited December 20, 2015 by feb1991blizzard

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Do we call this a Sceuro? Negatively tilted?  It is in my mind and positioning makes all the difference it could move to very mild or move to bring seasonal cold.  What follows on GFS run is a 1987 event.....if only

 

#

It's a modified sceuro Fred! Tbh, with the jet headed that far south it's only going one way which is cold. 

However, it's just eye candy considering the timeframe

[phil nw.]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes its better if its sharper tbh like a knife shape slicing through the polar regions, the classic was Jan 1987 as well.

Yes another good example,if anything that was probably one of the coldest easterlies -15c air or maybe even lower in the se iirc.

A good easterly from a Scand or Siberian high seems to becoming even less common since the Millenium.Time this run was ended!

Anyway back to the here and now.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It's a modified sceuro Fred! Tbh, with the jet headed that far south it's only going one way which is cold. 

However, it's just eye candy considering the timeframe

I'll take that!!  I strongly favour a Sceuro block to develop as we go into Jan....where it goes

 

BFTP

[Iceaxecrampon]

T+231

 

Bin....... (hopefully)

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All! The Gfs 12z just past T+240 brings the Uk into an epic cold spell,  but in reality the Atlantic is in full control, with some stormy conditions into the new year at times with colder air in the mix, the weather looks noisy rather than quiet....

[Mair Snaw]

Right so we have a post saying Bin and then a post saying epic cold spell for exactly the same chart from one model run.....well now im confused...

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, bigsnow said:

Right so we have a post saying Bin and then a post saying epic cold spell for exactly the same chart from one model run.....well now im confused...

The basic idea of the GFS 12z run is that you can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs. If the 12z went on for a few more days you would likely see a nice easterly appear but before that you would scorched.

[ANYWEATHER]

1 minute ago, bigsnow said:

Right so we have a post saying Bin and then a post saying epic cold spell for exactly the same chart from one model run.....well now im confused...

We have a verge of an epic cold spell from gfs at a very unreliable time frame, read between the lines....

[Mair Snaw]

1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

The basic idea of the GFS 12z run is that you can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs. If the 12z went on for a few more days you would likely see a nice easterly appear but before that you would scorched.

So why the post to bin it then??  its either a poor run or its not..... it cant be both... very confusing for new members or those that are not as experienced as some others....

 

[Mair Snaw]

2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

We have a verge of an epic cold spell from gfs at a very unreliable time frame, read between the lines....

yes i can see that but what im trying to say is the post above yours for the exact same chart is saying Bin the run.... so you can see how some could be very confused by both posts....i know who to follow and who not to follow on here but for some these kind of posts could be very confusing...

[Snowman.]

5 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

So why the post to bin it then??  its either a poor run or its not..... it cant be both... very confusing for new members or those that are not as experienced as some others....

 

Yes it is confusing unfortunately my advice would be listen to those who are well established.

[Liam J]

28 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Right so we have a post saying Bin and then a post saying epic cold spell for exactly the same chart from one model run.....well now im confused...

Suppose the person who said 'bin it' saw where the run was going and they don't really like cold weather, so that would maybe explain why they said it? You have to look at both sides of the coin, although I think Iceaxecrampon does like cold weather and was merely saying 'bin it' as that particular chart posted was showing a long draw southerly from Spain. 

[ANYWEATHER]

My post earlier showed the gfs at a very long range showing very cold conditions ,of course that's a long way off , just look at the broader picture , ecm and gfs show the Atlantic in control.....