Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Geordiesnow]

One other thing to bear in mind is if once again the Euro high is going to influence the weather then it won't be close enough to stop the situation of having low pressure systems stalling in the more North Western areas which could lead to potentially more flooding after xmas 

That said there is also the potential for some localised flooding in the next few days also and potentially severe gales although it does seem the worse of the winds will stay away from the mainland. 

The PV may eventually split but for me, its a complete waste of time if the majority of the PV head into Canada/US and then into the Atlantic as all it will do is power up that jet stream and have the Atlantic based weather in complete control.

[mountain shadow]

Yes.

It's because it's a cold continental land mass. It's also why a deep lobe of the vortex sits around Siberia too.

Chionomaniac taught me that .

[swilliam]

Interesting control run on the ECMWF control although not much support it has to be said.

[chris55]

UKMO my run of of the day lol, just caught up on things. Iceland ridge evident and subsequently the Atlantic energy heads further south rather than over the top so to speak. Im pretty sure the 144+ charts would be looking rather favourable!! (perhaps this is what the ECM control is hinting at?)

Again it's an isolated run but a few times recently i have seen UKMO take he lead in the 144 time-frame

This chart is loaded with potential!!

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

UKMO my run of of the day lol, just caught up on things. Iceland ridge evident and subsequently the Atlantic energy heads further south rather than over the top so to speak. Im pretty sure the 144+ charts would be looking rather favourable!! (perhaps this is what the ECM control is hinting at?)

Again it's an isolated run but a few times recently i have seen UKMO take he lead in the 144 time-frame

This chart is loaded with potential!!

 

Sorry, I don't follow your argument - I thought the ECM had no cold potential whatsoever?

[Eskimo]

A better evolution from the GFS at day 8

A strong Scandi high with 'almost' negatively tilted energy. 

Edited December 21, 2015 by PerfectStorm

[Hotspur62]

Some really good and informative posts over last couple of days and although some of the models were toying with higher heights to our North/North east in the not too distant future,today the models have reverted to our default pattern with quite a strong jet stream running across the Atlantic right across the Northern UK. This has been backed up by the BBC LR 10 day forecast showing a continuation of what we have had so far in December. I think it is fair to say that this month now is extremely unlikely to achieve even a cold snap and is a 2010 December in reverse possibly resulting in the warmest December for over 100 years.

 

Until the jet slips south and the pressure drops in Southern Europe we will just have to grin and bear the pattern we are in but I still think a pattern change is on the horizon, and I think come about end of first week of January the coldies amongst us(that's about 95% of us lol) will start to have something to cheer about. 

[Yarmy]

7 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Sorry, I don't follow your argument - I thought the ECM had no cold potential whatsoever?

ECM control run, not the op, Chris. Nick's shortwave is weaker and further E on the 18z which is the trend we're after. Still a few hurdles to genuine cold, though.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, Yarmy said:

ECM control run, not the op, Chris. Nick's shortwave is weaker and further E on the 18z which is the trend we're after. Still a few hurdles to genuine cold, though.

Thanks Yarmy. 

[bluearmy]

A glimmer of hope on the extended ECM ens. The strong blocking to our ne forces the upper trough into nw Europe and it seems that it could easily disrupt and slip se, finally removing the euro heights. 

i wonder if the EC32 will pick up this baton?

[Scorcher]

8 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

 I think it is fair to say that this month now is extremely unlikely to achieve even a cold snap and is a 2010 December in reverse possibly resulting in the warmest December for over 100 years.

Far more exceptional than 2010 in my opinion, which didn't even rank as the coldest on record. This month is going to absolutely smash the previous all time record for warmth, and possibly be warmer than the warmest March on record too.

[nick sussex]

12 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

ECM control run, not the op, Chris. Nick's shortwave is weaker and further E on the 18z which is the trend we're after. Still a few hurdles to genuine cold, though.

OMG I've had a shortwave named after me! lol

The GFS 18hrs run is certainly a nice way to end the day with it at least clearing that shortwave eastwards, the quicker it detaches the better the chances to get some strong WAA building the ridge north.

We'll see in the morning whether the ECM can find some Christmas cheer and back the GFS/UKMO.

Edited December 21, 2015 by nick sussex

[feb1991blizzard]

The EC32 control should almost be out by now, I wonder what it is suggesting, unfortunately I think I can guess, I would just be happy with some significant strat warming showing in FI.

[Ali1977]

Interesting how latest monthly model from ECMWF leans now to UKMO's GloSea5 in building pressure to SW/S by mid-Jan...*hopefully* less wet!

from Ian F just now

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Interesting how latest monthly model from ECMWF leans now to UKMO's GloSea5 in building pressure to SW/S by mid-Jan...*hopefully* less wet!

from Ian F just now

Not good then!

[Ali1977]

To me that sounds like winter isn't coming in a hurry....I know things change but it's not looking good. Always nice to get cold spells in Dec/Jan as the sun has no strength so frost/snow lasts longer, let's hope we aren't left clinging to something in the during the final weeks of winter - 2013 was a one off!!

Edited December 21, 2015 by Ali1977

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

To me that sounds like winter isn't coming in a hurry....I know things change but it's not looking good. Always nice to get cold spells in Dec/Jan as the sun has no strength so frost/snow lasts longer, let's hope we aren't left clinging to something in the during the final weeks of winter - 2013 was a one off!!

It certainly sounds pretty underwhelming from my point of view, though a reduction in rainfall amounts would surely be sought by those in the north-west.

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

To me that sounds like winter isn't coming in a hurry....I know things change but it's not looking good. Always nice to get cold spells in Dec/Jan as the sun has no strength so frost/snow lasts longer, let's hope we aren't left clinging to something in the during the final weeks of winter - 2013 was a one off!!

FI GFS may be pretty close to reality then, really bad for the skiing industry if this is true.

Edited December 21, 2015 by Ali1977

[nick sussex]

The latest NCEP update for the MJO:

Good news if the MJO can get to phase 7 or even 8. The inference being that the MJO signal is not being bullied into submission by the strong El Nino.

The MJO strengthened during the past week with enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent. 
Dynamical model forecasts of the MJO index are in better agreement and indicate a robust signal given the strong El Nino.  

The enhanced phase of the MJO is forecast to progress from the Maritime Continent to the Central Pacific during the next two weeks. 

The MJO is likely to play a role in the pattern of anomalous convection along with the ongoing El Nino. 
 

[Eskimo]

Anyone have the MetOffice link to the current monthly CET?

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The latest NCEP update for the MJO:

Good news if the MJO can get to phase 7 or even 8. The inference being that the MJO signal is not being bullied into submission by the strong El Nino.

The MJO strengthened during the past week with enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent. 
Dynamical model forecasts of the MJO index are in better agreement and indicate a robust signal given the strong El Nino.  

The enhanced phase of the MJO is forecast to progress from the Maritime Continent to the Central Pacific during the next two weeks. 

The MJO is likely to play a role in the pattern of anomalous convection along with the ongoing El Nino. 
 

Do you consider that, if the MJO can get to phase 7, it might be able to dent the strat vortex?  I understood from posts from the last few days that the PV was so strong this year that it would take an exteme warming to dent it.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Anyone have the MetOffice link to the current monthly CET?

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[gottolovethisweather]

33 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Far more exceptional than 2010 in my opinion, which didn't even rank as the coldest on record. This month is going to absolutely smash the previous all time record for warmth, and possibly be warmer than the warmest March on record too.

Indeed Scorcher, my departure from the "norm" figure read something like +5.4c last time I looked and it's resultant mean lies somewhat ahead of this year's mean for April, which itself was 1.2c warmer than usual. Small wonder, nature has responded in kind (truly feels like Spring to them) with its butterflies, daffodils and growing crops in the farmer's fields, at least where they're not under water. 

Edited December 21, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[bryan629]

Cohens latest Blog update

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Looks like we may need to use the `P` word for a while yet 

Here basically a diagram that illustrates his blog

Judah Cohen ‏@judah47  14 mins14 minutes ago

Globe 1 happened, check. Globe 2 predicted, check. Globe 3? Read the latest AO blog: http://bit.ly/1jXiL4K 

 

 

 

[nick sussex]

Just now, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Do you consider that, if the MJO can get to phase 7, it might be able to dent the strat vortex?  I understood from posts from the last few days that the PV was so strong this year that it would take an exteme warming to dent it.

The PV is in an angry mood so there are no guarantees even if we get a favourable MJO phase. However I'd rather see the MJO moving and see whether that can shake things up. The response to the MJO isn't always clear, sometimes you see sudden changes in the outputs and other times other variables mute its effect. If it continues into a more favourable phase then we can just hope that it does the former.