Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Mucka]

ECM shortwave drama, no exit East but stalls West and phases with trough. 

Edited December 22, 2015 by Mucka

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well the idea of a serious block developing in Jan I don't think is a wrong idea.  Where it sets up and settles will be the player with the PV still to our NW.  With the way this month panned out I'm still of the idea that it won't be cold for us, however with southerlies at times in my mind the block is not a million miles from being in a cold position or UK.  I feel with the PV as it is it isn't ready to give up the ghost yet but could be of real importance to what could be a whammo of a cold set up come end of jan early Feb.

Not unfeasible and likely to cause trough disruption but its mild for us...big block, wrong place.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015122212/gfs-0-252.png?12

 

This is just one example.  But before that I think  Xmas week won't be without interest and some nasty Xmas Eve weather for our NW regions and Ireland

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015122212/gfs-0-42.png?12

 

BFTP

 

 

[Eskimo]

ECM further west with the plume, energy more likely to run underneath 

Edited December 22, 2015 by PerfectStorm

[Eskimo]

Energy doesn't quite make it underneath yet, however the low stalls in the west and allows a more favourable high to build across Scandinavia, what will happen next?

[booferking]

It looks like the vortex just sucked the low back up again haha.

[Mucka]

Not sure what people are seeing, ECM had failed by 96h?

 

JMA goes much the same way, 

 

Edited December 22, 2015 by Mucka

[Eskimo]

Then it goes tits up...

[booferking]

Yea need everything further west early on i think it is still possible also that low at 96hrs needs to phase out early and not make it up the country go east pretty please.

[mountain shadow]

Yes, we can forget about any Easterly for now. Any cold is going to come from the North West.

The GEM is not cannon fodder for nothing.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

6 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Energy doesn't quite make it underneath yet, however the low stalls in the west and allows a more favourable high to build across Scandinavia, what will happen next?

The way the low pressure has a positive tilt rather than a negative one straight away tells you that it's never gonna go under, the same applies to the shape of the high pressure , it's not even vertical , it's slanted clockwise which will always result in one thing , it will get blown out the way and shunted eastwards . All models are struggling at the minute and until the orientation of the high and correct position of the high , and how the various shallow areas of low pressure move in association to that , and how the vortex behaves then the models will continue to flip around with different scenarios 

[mulzy]

On 21/12/2015 at 6:53 PM, CreweCold said:

 

 

Edited December 22, 2015 by mulzy

[mulzy]

Does it get much worse than this?

 

It's a long road to cold from there...

Deep PV over Greenland and Euro high is the form horse and it looks that way for some time.  There is no "jam tomorrow" folks...

 

 

Edited December 22, 2015 by mulzy

[blizzard81]

8 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

The way the low pressure has a positive tilt rather than a negative one straight away tells you that it's never gonna go under, the same applies to the shape of the high pressure , it's not even vertical , it's slanted clockwise which will always result in one thing , it will get blown out the way and shunted eastwards . All models are struggling at the minute and until the orientation of the high and correct position of the high , and how the various shallow areas of low pressure move in association to that , and how the vortex behaves then the models will continue to flip around with different scenarios 

All the models (apart from the useless GEM) show the positive tilt in the reliable time frame. No struggling from the models as far as I can see. When I look at the last few frames of the ECM, I don't think I could draw more perfect charts for a 100% mild lover if I tried.

[Cloud 10]

The models giveth...

 

....and the models taketh away..

 

Tonights ECM is the sort of output that turns Nick Sussex's laptop into a lethal flying projectile!

 

Time for the santa smiley.

 

 

[blizzard81]

Just now, mulzy said:

Does it get much worse than this?

 

 

 

 

In a word, no!

[blizzard81]

Just now, Cloud 10 said:

The models giveth...

 

....and the models taketh away..

 

Tonights ECM is the sort of output that turns Nick Sussex's laptop into a lethal flying projectile!

 

Time for the santa smiley.

 

 

I know which model my money is on and it doesn't begin with G

[joggs]

3 hours ago, Greenland1080 said:

I'm still not giving up on a scrus high possibly giving us a cut off lobe of cold air, giving us a colder continental feed as we move into the New Year....lets see what the 12zs have to offer us

shame we can't get that 1045 high north and east to cut the cold air off feeding us colder air for a change not mild mush.

So close to that scrussian high and cutting off a lobe of cold air...friggin vortex

If we could only spin it 15 mins clockwise!!!! 

[Carl46Wrexham]

9 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Does it get much worse than this?

 

It's a long road to cold from there...

Deep PV over Greenland and Euro high is the form horse and it looks that way for some time.  There is no "jam tomorrow" folks...

 

 

[gottolovethisweather]

13 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Does it get much worse than this?

 

It's a long road to cold from there...

Deep PV over Greenland and Euro high is the form horse and it looks that way for some time.  There is no "jam tomorrow" folks...

 

 

For the forseeable, yes but with 80 days of post Solstice Winter to run from January 1st, I'd suggest the Scandinavian/Russian Heights might yet yield something tastier for us coldies for January and beyond. Granted, until we lose the heights over Europe and the PV displaces itself somewhere else (which should happen simultaneously) I have largely written off December for anything else other the continuing current conditions. I'm more interested to see if we can scrape a rare December frost or two. 

Edited December 22, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[nick sussex]

Not much festive cheer from the ECM which went downhill pretty early. The PV just looks far too strong at the moment and even a decent block to the ne would find it difficult to force some trough disruption.

In terms of the latest from the MJO that does show now more convergence towards phase 7 with the ECM monthly taking some members into phase 8.

Rather frustratingly the MJO expert at NCEP has downloaded the wrong PDF file after the briefing, so instead of the update 22nd December, he's downloaded the 8th December one! Hopefully he'll realize the mistake and put in the correct one.

His Global Tropics Hazards update though seems to think that the MJO will actually make it to phase 7. His previous one dated the 15th suggested there might be some changes to the PNA pattern if the MJO remained strong so given the models this week are even more bullish about that then I'd think its possible he will still come to the same conclusions.

I think at this point the MJO is carrying the weight of any changes to the pattern, theres not much going on elsewhere that can realistically do that. There is of course a lot of debate surrounding the impacts of the MJO during strong El Nino years, I think we'll know within the next week whether it can shuffle the pack .

 

[mountain shadow]

Polar maritime air spilling in from the West at Day 10, so a fresher feel to the start of the New Year, particularly in those areas exposed to the Atlantic. 

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS continues to show a more seasonal cooler N/W Pm flow into January, With the ECMWF now moving towards this idea towards it's latter frame(s)

Edited December 22, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[nick sussex]

Just now, Greenland1080 said:

Nick you've gone from obsessing over short waves to finding errors with the MJO experts over at ncep....models must be looking bad..global tropics hazard update lol

I spent hours today doing a lot more reading about the MJO. For a second I thought I was back at University and having one of those last minute OMG its exam time tomorrow moments.

Well maybe they had a Christmas party at NCEP and too much bourbon caused him to download the wrong file. If its not sorted out by tomorrow I'm going to email them!

At this point I think its a case of us coldies going down to the casino and placing all our bets on red, red in this case being the MJO.

It could well end in tears but given events in the strat the MJO is at the moment looking like the last throw of the dice in terms of seeing some changes within the next two weeks.

 

[blizzard81]

Not many posts from the senior forecasters on here these last couple of days. Would be nice to hear their latest thoughts, Chio, Lorenzo, GP etc

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

26 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Does it get much worse than this?

 

It's a long road to cold from there...

Deep PV over Greenland and Euro high is the form horse and it looks that way for some time.  There is no "jam tomorrow" folks...

 

 

 

14 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Polar maritime air spilling in from the West at Day 10, so a fresher feel to the start of the New Year, particularly in those areas exposed to the Atlantic. 

Two posts saying two completely different things.  I don't know which model MS is referring to, but the ECM seems to show a continuation of recent conditions as nailed-on to me.