Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[LeeSnowFan]

A Worrying site to the end of the year with yet more storms for those area's that certainly don't need it!

Still not eye candy for us to gt excited over in terms of SNOW! but let's see what January will bring is

 

In the meantime seeing as I can't build a snowman ive built a "Mudman" with all the rain we've had!

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Not really much to add this morning, it does seem for a time that January will start where December finished.

ECM ens

GEFs

A cyclonic south westerly flow likely with mild and fairly unsettled conditions prevailing.

 

There are weak signs that we could see something nearer normal develop further ahead, the GEfs hinting that the main core of higher heights may return to a more normal position near the Azores, resulting in more normal temperatures with polar maritime incursions at times.

This could change as we approach the turn of the month, in particular to see whether we see low heights develop in a more favourable place as apart from that Azores ridge, there is a lot of detail left to define.

 

^haha nice LSF

Edited December 23, 2015 by Captain Shortwave

[Bobd29]

35 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

A Worrying site to the end of the year with yet more storms for those area's that certainly don't need it!

Still not eye candy for us to gt excited over in terms of SNOW! but let's see what January will bring is

 

In the meantime seeing as I can't build a snowman ive built a "Mudman" with all the rain we've had!

 

 

Brilliant hope Eva doesn't wash him away! Some hope from GP looking at mid-Jan onwards we do need something to remove that warm bulge that has resided over us for weeks now, heart goes out to those flood victims in the NW 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Is that a bit of Eastern promise I see over turkey and the Adriatic on the latest ECM! I hope so. Need a change from this endless Atlantic train. 

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Is that a bit of Eastern promise I see over turkey and the Adriatic on the latest ECM! I hope so. Need a change from this endless Atlantic train. 

I dread seeing the cold heading into Turkey and south east Europe. It generally means we stay mild.

[blizzard81]

Does anyone know why debilt ecm ensembles are not updating?

[Weather26]

3 hours ago, Nick L said:

Never mind the hunt for cold for now, a further risk of some serious flooding to come over the next 7-10 days in the north. EC is showing 200mm easily for parts of Cumbria during the next week. That storm on 29th/30th needs closely watching as well.

Just what Cumbria does NOT need right now-let's hope there is a massive downgrade otherwise Storm Frank could be getting named in the next week or so.

[blizzard81]

Incredibly warm Christmas on eastern seaboard of the US. Washington DC forecast of 23 degrees celcius tomorrow. Would this be a Christmas Eve record?

[blizzard81]

I like the look of the GFS 06z so far. Great negative tilt to the atlantic trough by 180 hrs. This is something GP pointed out last night. Negative tilt due to increasing heights towards Kara Sea.

[Interitus]

4 hours ago, Nick L said:

Never mind the hunt for cold for now, a further risk of some serious flooding to come over the next 7-10 days in the north. EC is showing 200mm easily for parts of Cumbria during the next week. That storm on 29th/30th needs closely watching as well.

Well on the plus side, it's not the sub-930mb beast that was shown on some runs earlier, on the down side it's coming closer to the UK instead of heading to  Iceland directly. Interesting to see its roots in the Pacific and across sw US before dragging a big plume of warmth and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

 

34 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I like the look of the GFS 06z so far. Great negative tilt to the atlantic trough by 180 hrs. This is something GP pointed out last night. Negative tilt due to increasing heights towards Kara Sea.

But til the last couple of frames, although there are incursions of polar maritime stuff, without normal Azores high pressure there are still periods of mild air dragged way down from the Gulf stream.

[karlos1983]

well atleast the GEM is consistent in it's theme, little shift east, but it's basically the same pattern as its 12z from yesterday.

Consistently bad probably 

 

However, imagine if this was to actually pan out as shown. 

[IDO]

34 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

well atleast the GEM is consistent in it's theme, little shift east, but it's basically the same pattern as its 12z from yesterday.

Consistently bad probably 

 

However, imagine if this was to actually pan out as shown. 

Absolutely no support from it's members and is typical of GEM, late with correcting a false signal. Mean and Control at T216:

The models all went crazy when the wave was introduced, a well known tendency entrenched in all the models. The actual effect from this local amplification is as we probably expected in the current +AO and ENSO for the HP/Ridge to be mobile and move away as quickly as it arrived. Due to the current long wave pattern its introduction gives us another plume of mild uppers and unfortunately the prospect of further rain to the NW. After that mild push (till 30th) we have a more zonal setup and depending on where the polar jet sits certainly more PM air than of late. Only one of the GEFS offers a blocked pattern at D16 and we can pretty much dismiss any cold setup before the first week of Jan at least.

Week 3 & 4 of the CFS offers further bouts of SW'lys, but I am not buying that at the moment:  

The BOMM, which was one of the first LR MJO models to pick up the amplified Phase 6 and 7 are now moving away from that. So it is difficult to know how any MJO signal will manifest with the ENSO background noise. Seen some composites and there is little guidance at the moment so not too sure what to expect in that respect. Hopefully a change to the long wave pattern in early Jan? The PNA pattern looks like returning to positive in a week or so and this should tie in with the w2&3 CFS anomalies:

                

So nothing too promising there though temps wise, again more of a PM flow. The ECM mean does show that drop in temps with time, though scatter after D8 and the op looks an outlier (again) by D10:

 

Nothing brewing in the strat at the moment:

A case of grin and bear it and hope that mid-Jan onwards there is a pattern change.

Edited December 23, 2015 by IDO

[knocker]

53 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Well on the plus side, it's not the sub-930mb beast that was shown on some runs earlier, on the down side it's coming closer to the UK instead of heading to  Iceland directly. Interesting to see its roots in the Pacific and across sw US before dragging a big plume of warmth and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.

Yes it was spawned from this upper low and nipped around the ridge to the east.

[gottolovethisweather]

2 hours ago, IDO said:

Absolutely no support from it's members and is typical of GEM, late with correcting a false signal. Mean and Control at T216:

The models all went crazy when the wave was introduced, a well known tendency entrenched in all the models. The actual effect from this local amplification is as we probably expected in the current +AO and ENSO for the HP/Ridge to be mobile and move away as quickly as it arrived. Due to the current long wave pattern its introduction gives us another plume of mild uppers and unfortunately the prospect of further rain to the NW. After that mild push (till 30th) we have a more zonal setup and depending on where the polar jet sits certainly more PM air than of late. Only one of the GEFS offers a blocked pattern at D16 and we can pretty much dismiss any cold setup before the first week of Jan at least.

Week 3 & 4 of the CFS offers further bouts of SW'lys, but I am not buying that at the moment:  

The BOMM, which was one of the first LR MJO models to pick up the amplified Phase 6 and 7 are now moving away from that. So it is difficult to know how any MJO signal will manifest with the ENSO background noise. Seen some composites and there is little guidance at the moment so not too sure what to expect in that respect. Hopefully a change to the long wave pattern in early Jan? The PNA pattern looks like returning to positive in a week or so and this should tie in with the w2&3 CFS anomalies:

                

So nothing too promising there though temps wise, again more of a PM flow. The ECM mean does show that drop in temps with time, though scatter after D8 and the op looks an outlier (again) by D10:

 

Nothing brewing in the strat at the moment:

A case of grin and bear it and hope that mid-Jan onwards there is a pattern change.

Like you say PM airstreams look set to have more of an influence as we enter the New Year and as the ensembles shown back this up, it does look more encouraging to me. Before that, more miserable mildness and potential for bucket loads of rain where it isn't wanted. All the tropical type moisture laden airmasses serve to do is to bring us increasing prospects of record-breaking statistics, be it for rain or warmth. It's beginning to feel a lot less like Christmas.

Aye IDO, I'm dreaming of a New Year weather switch-around in coldie's fortunes and it can't come soon enough. I'm not greedy, a December frost would simply do for starters. 

 

Edited December 23, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Frosty.]

2 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Incredibly warm Christmas on eastern seaboard of the US. Washington DC forecast of 23 degrees celcius tomorrow. Would this be a Christmas Eve record?

Good!!  They have had enough blizzards and freezes !! I have no sympathy for them whatsoever!

[Nouska]

14 minutes ago, IDO said:

The BOMM, which was one of the first LR MJO models to pick up the amplified Phase 6 and 7 are now moving away from that. So it is difficult to know how any MJO signal will manifest with the ENSO background noise. Seen some composites and there is little guidance at the moment so not too sure what to expect in that respect. Hopefully a change to the long wave pattern in early Jan? The PNA pattern looks like returning to positive in a week or so and this should tie in with the w2&3 CFS anomalies:

You have to remember that BOMM run is nearly a week out of date - with the exception of UKMO (7 days), on that date, the rest were returning to neutral/near neutral in the early stages phase 6. It is only in the last few days that the signal for amplification and progression has become stronger.

[Interitus]

43 minutes ago, knocker said:

Yes it was spawned from this upper low and nipped around the ridge to the east.

 

Then as the jet slips down to the deep south to give the northeast US and mid-west some cooler weather, we get a pineapple express

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Interitus said:

Then as the jet slips down to the deep south to give the northeast US and mid-west some cooler weather, we get a pineapple express

 

And not far behind it is the period express!!

[Frosty.]

29 minutes ago, Interitus said:

we get a pineapple express

 

What's new? Don't we already have 14/15c almost 60F. It couldn't really get worse for coldies in the UK could it?..To me, the only way is up and the best Christmas present netweather has had is Glacier Point post regularly, that guy's meteorological knowledge is amazing and I hope he's right about mid Jan onwards! 

Edited December 23, 2015 by Frosty.
Speeelling mistake

[The Enforcer]

3 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Is that a bit of Eastern promise I see over turkey and the Adriatic on the latest ECM! I hope so. Need a change from this endless Atlantic train. 

That high pressure (or at least the factors creating it) is a complete waste of space. Firstly, it forms to the north of the UK and deflects the Arctic flow that was heading in our direction away to the east. Secondly, it drifts to our east and blocks off the eastward progression of any Atlantic lows, meaning they track south to north over the UK then up towards the pole bringing ridiculously mild air over here. A high pressure over Europe is only any use for UK cold if it is anchored to the pole and the Jet stream is forcing low pressure systems down through Iberia and across the Alps.

[knocker]

1 hour ago, Interitus said:

Then as the jet slips down to the deep south to give the northeast US and mid-west some cooler weather, we get a pineapple express

 

Yes indeede and you can see the rain belt along the track. Interesting stuff as long as  it takes the left exit into Iceland.

[mulzy]

We can say with some confidence that the broad westerly / south-westerly flow is expected to continue in the medium term - the NAEFS 16 day anomaly chart illustrates this perfectly.

 

 

Ridge over the Eastern Canada/USA, ridge over Europe, low heights over Greenland.  This pattern is not conducive for cold over the UK.  What happens after this is purely speculative.  With the warmest December on record already in the bag, I wonder what odds the bookies would give me on the warmest winter ever recorded?

 

 

 

[gottolovethisweather]

43 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Crikey the EPS control gone a bit loopy for next week!! Stormy/zonal into overdrive!  

 

 

 

 

 

 

And furthermore I think that will won't probably verify as shown.  At least it still gives us something to talk about.

Edited December 23, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Frosty.]

Ok so here is where we are, according to the experts there is no sign of anything wintry as far as their outlook goes which takes us to late January. It's sickening for coldies but that is the current thinking. What a relief it is then that we have some experts on netweather..otherwise what would be the point of chasing cold weather with no realistic hope of it! I hope the likes of Glacier Point are still seeing better signs for coldies beyond mid January because currently the met office are not even offering any hope of so much as a polar maritime incursion during the next 4-6 weeks apart from the next few days in the far north. Of much more concern is the threat of more flooding in the northwest, especially cumbria!

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Ok so here is where we are, according to the experts there is no sign of anything wintry 

No sign of any Northerly blocking but definitely more wintry with more Pm incursions over the next two to three weeks.

850s of -5 will be more of a visitor giving increased snow chances over high ground in the North and West. 

Any Northerly blocking does not now look likely in January either.