Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Polar Maritime]

Very nice to see the pattern we have endured for so long begin to change, Some wild swings to come over the coming days. The GFS 6z certainly delivering some nice charts into the run. Interesting times ahead and good timing/viewing for the Christmas period! -13c 850's over central England.. That'le do thanks!

Edited December 24, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

The ext ecm this morning seems to evolve naturally from T240.  At that time it has the Aleutian LP with trough eastern Pacific, ridging Alaska, vortex N. Canada with associated troughs eastern seaboard and SE to the UK. With HP to the east ridging north in western Russia.

The major change by T360 is that everything has moved east and the two troughs are now orientated south from Greenland and SE into Scandinavia and eastern Europe. At the same time HP nudging into the UK from the SW. Thus still zonal but more settled in the south, for a time anyway, with temps a little above average.

 

Edited December 24, 2015 by knocker

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

8 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Overall they are trending the right way though Mucka, albeit still up and down but more downs than ups to my mind as we enter D7 and beyond.

Indeed - one has to consider the trend rather than individual data points (this is something I learned as a biology student).  I'm applying it to meteorology only because, in this case, it fits.

[Liam J]

16 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I only have one thing to say, GEM picked it up first 

Have you seen the latest cannon fodder run? Completely dropped the idea on the 00z, but wouldn't worry yourself over the GEM output... The GFS has picked up the baton on the 6z, now will the Scrooge like ECM carry it on?! Looking at the EPS that's probably unlikely. 

[Jason M]

Although messy, the scenario depicted by the 06Z does have some support from its ensembles in terms of the basic synoptics. The opp run will be a cold outlier but on this occasion relying on the 850s alone is misleading and its better to just run through each GEFS at day 10.

I suspect it will end up close, but with no cigar. At least its something of interest though.

[gottolovethisweather]

2 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Have you seen the latest cannon fodder run? Completely dropped the idea on the 00z, but wouldn't worry yourself over the GEM output... The GFS has picked up the baton on the 6z, now will the Scrooge like ECM carry it on?! Looking at the EPS that's probably unlikely. 

That is certainly a horrid chart but my interest is concentrated upon the New Year, suffice to say that the next seven days aren't going to worthy of talking about, just not for coldies. Gales, rain, further flooding, mildness, sounds like Autumn in Winter again to me, so no, I cannot get excited about that chart or anything showing up over the next seven days. Perhaps, the represented chart represents a final hurrah to the current setup, those folk expected to having received a Metre of rain in December alone, will certainly hope so. 

[nick sussex]

I see the GFS 06hrs run has delivered something interesting!

I think the issue is the original placement of the high, you preferably need to see this more to the ne than east  and also  the orientation is better facing the Atlantic troughing head on.

We don't want a slowly sinking Scandi high with the jet going over the top. The ECM ensembles do have a large spread to the ne which would tie in with uncertainty as to where any high pressure sets up.

Out of the big 3 you certainly don't want the UKMO to verify, at T96hrs there are big differences between it and the ECM/GFS. The UKMO has that much flatter upstream troughing and then drives a pile of energy over the top. Even at T72hrs there are differences with the shortwave much further to the sw which are part of the problem.

Looking at the ECM postage stamps theres loads of different solutions at just T96hrs in terms of how far east that troughing is and whether its more positive/ negatively/neutral  tilted. This then makes a big difference to where any high sets up. Quite bizarre to see this many solutions at just T96hrs.

The sum total of this is that you can likely kick out any solutions from the ensembles which call the wrong troughing at T96hrs because this will also have the wrong position of the high in the medium term.

 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2015 by nick sussex

[Liam J]

2 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

That is certainly a horrid chart but my interest is concentrated upon the New Year, suffice to say that the next seven days aren't going to worthy of talking about, just not for coldies. Gales, rain, further flooding, mildness, sounds like Autumn in Winter again to me, so no, I cannot get excited about that chart or anything showing up over the next seven days. Perhaps, the represented chart represents a final hurrah to the current setup, those folk expected to having received a Metre of rain in December alone, will certainly hope so. 

I don't think anybody would get excited over that chart! Any possible pattern change which would see the back of the current weather would be welcomed by many, especially for the flood stricken areas and my friends who were and continue to be affected by flooding keep asking me when the rain & flooding will stop for any length of time so they can start a proper clean up and get on the road to recovery. I feel awful when giving them the bad news of further heavy rainfall.... Perhaps a small glimmer of hope that we may begin to see a change, but I'm not holding my breath as it's a very weak signal at present. 

[The Enforcer]

13 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

I feel awful when giving them the bad news of further heavy rainfall....

Let's hope they understand it's the models and don't make it personal, like this guy:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7JMW0BNZHaA

[Daniel*]

51 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Very nice to see the pattern we have endured for so long begin to change, Some wild swings to come over the coming days. The GFS 6z certainly delivering some nice charts into the run. Interesting times ahead and good timing/viewing for the Christmas period! -13c 850's over central England.. That'le do thanks!

An absolute snow fest no marginality there for lowland Britain, there's a good reason I bookmarked post the new year, that is a salivating chart. The North Sea & English Channel SST are above average to a significant degree east of Thames Estuary, courtesy of this balmy December. With any frigid easterly sourced flows such as above, there could be epic lake effect snowfalls, heavy snow showers would penetrate well inland giving some areas a real dumping. Kent in particular would be pummelled, things are looking up somewhat.

http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/anom_plot.html?i=34&j=2

 

Edited December 24, 2015 by Daniel*

[Nick F]

Nice to see the GFS finally bring some festive cheer, though I would think the 06z operational is an T850 outlier for the UK, given that the 00z GEFS don't show any member get as low as -12C at T850 over London as the 06z op shows. 

There is the pattern change upstream over N America which finally brings a trough over the eastern USA and ridge into the NW USA - but with the tropospheric polar vortex as strong as it is this side of the northern hemisphere (N Atlantic sector) we are still unlikely to shake off the N Atlantic trough which has been stubbornly present for ages. The eastern US trough may serve to pull the still strong jet stream on a more southerly track across the Atlantic than recently though. This is where 06z GFS op, against the consensus thus far, takes the strong Atlantic jet up against the Euro block and splits it with most of the energy going under a developing Scandi ridge across southern Europe, rather than most energy NE over the top - as 00z EC advertises. Maybe 06z GFS picking up a little uncertainty over how the jet splits and where the energy goes. Though, for now, would have to back the more likely jet energy over the top.

 

Edited December 24, 2015 by Nick F

[Nick F]

06z GFS operational an outlier for London from the 5th Jan, but interestingly, there are a few members that go just as cold prior to the operational between the 3rd and 5th. So a brief cold blast early Jan not totally without support. 

 

 

[grca]

10 minutes ago, Nick F said:

06z GFS operational an outlier for London from the 5th Jan, but interestingly, there are a few members that go just as cold prior to the operational between the 3rd and 5th. So a brief cold blast early Jan not totally without support. 

 

 

A small amount of scatter on the pressure graph too :-)

 

[Frosty.]

Keeping the new star wars movie theme going, the Gfs 6z shows a disturbance in the force, something is lurking in knocker's woodshed!!...keep the faith fellow coldies, we have and are still going through hell but there are better signs for 2016..especially when John Holmes mentions tentative signs of a major pattern change with the 500mb anomalies

[Methuselah]

57 minutes ago, grca said:

A small amount of scatter on the pressure graph too :-)

 

I may be talking out my bottom here, but is that scatter not a graphical representation of Shannon Entropy - uncertainty caused by the repeated iteration of formulae rather than uncertainty in actual weather; which will, of course, do precisely what it 'wants', irrespective of how well we are at predicting it? 

[Cloud 10]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

I may be talking out my bottom here, but is that scatter not a graphical representation of Shannon Entropy - uncertainty caused by the repeated iteration of formulae rather than uncertainty in actual weather; which will, of course, do precisely what it 'wants', irrespective of how well we are at predicting it? 

 

In other words a complete mess.

 

Happy Christmas everybody.

[Mucka]

Early stages it is six of one...

shortwave/low clears East but Atlantic trough is not as deep (digging as far South to aid amplification) or well aligned as the 06z so somewhere between this mornings 00z and 06z looks likely.

 

 

Probably more important to get ECM to remotely go in the Scandi high direction than worry about micro details on the GFS at the mo

 

120 looking pretty good, some energy undercutting SE into Europe and better upstream than 06z so some positives over that run and one or two negatives if you like following the detail of how these runs evolve.

Edited December 24, 2015 by Mucka

[johnholmes]

13 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Early stages it is six of one...

shortwave/low clears East but Atlantic trough is not as deep (digging as far South to aid amplification) or well aligned as the 06z so somewhere between this mornings 00z and 06z looks likely.

 

 

Probably more important to get ECM to remotely go in the Scandi high direction than worry about micro details on the GFS at the mo though.

As I posted earlier there is some indication on the EC 500mb anomaly chart of both it and GFS (it was showing this 24 hours ago) of indicating something different; a slight signal and it needs continuing with NOAA on the same train, for it to be really believed.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[Frosty.]

I wish everyone associated with Netweather a very Merry Christmas, netweather is the best weather website in the world in my opinion with a very friendly community and I am so happy to have been part of it for the last 10 years...I miss some of the old gang who were here when I joined but netweather has gone from strength to strength over the years so a Big thanks to Paul and the mods plus all the members and guests too. I hope that 2016 will see the wheel of fortune start to turn in favour of the majority on here who are looking for frosty and snowy conditions!

 

Edited December 24, 2015 by Frosty.

[Polar Maritime]

Here here Frosty. Merry Christmas to all! 

Edited December 24, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Mucka]

UKMO delayed?

I expect it to be quite different from this mornings run,  which now looks way too progressive, so I'm eager to see it .

 

Edit

Oh 96h chart has just come out and it ain't very good, oh well, wishful thinking on my part.

 

If we can get to this position by day 7 I we will have a pretty good chance.

 

 

Check the purple blob head our way 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2015 by Mucka

[Eskimo]

The 12z continues on from the 06z with an easterly eventually developing with a battleground scenario....my favourite! 

 

[seabreeze86]

GFS toying with the idea of a battleground UK setup on the 12z

 

Energy starting to go under the block hmm, has the GFS gone off on one or a new trend?

[karlos1983]

Can't post chart because on my phone, but it's cold to the west of us, colder to the east, win win ;-) surely?

Edited December 24, 2015 by karlos1983

[nick sussex]

OMG what drama! The GFS 12hrs run has a much better orientated high facing the upstream troughing, a little bit further north and west and that would be even better.