Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS continues to show a very stormy unsettled but cooler start to the new year as deep Lows track in off the Atlantic from the N/W, Bringing the possibility of severe gales with heavy rain and with a wintry mix possible anywhere North of the Midlands, Especially high ground where there could be temporary blizzard conditions as cooler -4/-5 air gets pulled in at times, A very mobile/unsettled period coming up, With the mild balmy temps slowly dispersing into the run as the Jet slowly pulls South a little introducing cooler temps.  

 

Edited December 24, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[northwestsnow]

ECM showing Eastern Europe cooling off dramatically this morning with some frigid cold air spilling out of Siberia down the eastern flank of the Scandy high. For Blighty certainly less mild as we head towards the New year but while pressure remains stubbornly high across Spain/France little prospect of anything one could term wintry, perhaps for the scottish highlands.

 

[Ravelin]

Those more knowledgeable will maybe be able to say if this is significant or not but there's interesting differences in FI on the ECM this morning compared to the same run yesterday.

Yesterday's 0Z @ t240

This morning's 0z @ t216

This morning's run showing the 'Scandanavian' ridge remaining much more 'upright' than yesterday, with a better movement of low heights into Europe. Also, the ridge over Alaska is much stronger and consequentially the trough over the eastern US deeper, basically 'more amplified upstream' if I have my terminology correct.

Edited December 24, 2015 by Ravelin

[bluearmy]

Ravelin, if it verified then it would be a much better scenario but day 10 op charts have less than a fifty percent chance of being right and in areas where there is predicted significant movement of heights, probably much lower than that. 

[johnholmes]

There are tentative signs in the anomaly charts, certainly not consistently with one another and nothing that one could post and say, there this is a good signal for a major pattern change.

The betting might be on some kind of block developing to the north and more especially to the NE of the UK. Something that the synoptic models have suggested at times. IF this does develop into reality 6 days or more from now, then the effect would be to cause the surface lows to track more ESE rather than the climatological path of between Scotland and Iceland. Also their intensities would be less in general.

Nothing to hang any coats on as yet, maybe a 30% probability of this development occurring as the models stand at the moment.

links to anomaly charts below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&map=1&runpara=

The MJO (GFS) is currently in 5 with a reasonable distance from the origin and is predicted to go to 6/7, fairly reasonable orbit.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foroper.shtml

this corresponds as shown below to probable 500mb anomaly heights

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/DecENMJOphase7gt1500mb.gif

Not exactly deep cold looking other than the one showing anomalies being +ve to the East suggesting a cold flow from somewhere NE-SE at the surface.

Edited December 24, 2015 by johnholmes

[Mucka]

Pretty impressive Scandi high on GFS 06z even if the cold is out of reach for now.

 

[Ravelin]

22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ravelin, if it verified then it would be a much better scenario but day 10 op charts have less than a fifty percent chance of being right and in areas where there is predicted significant movement of heights, probably much lower than that. 

I'm not saying it will verify, but hasn't it been said that we should "look at the trend"? Anyway, the charts I posted may be from day 9 (<-nitpicking), but the changes really start at around day 4, with a more negative tilt to the ridge over the UK.

Yesterday

Today

P.S. Is everyone out doing last minute Xmas shopping?

[Mucka]

Day 10 GFS, fuse lit?

 

[blizzard81]

Just now, Ravelin said:

I'm not saying it will verify, but hasn't it been said that we should "look at the trend"? Anyway, the charts I posted may be from day 9 (<-nitpicking), but the changes really start at around day 4, with a more negative tilt to the ridge over the UK.

Yesterday

Today

P.S. Is everyone out doing last minute Xmas shopping?

Looks like it lol. Yes, I have also noticed quite significant changes in the short term with regards to the strength of that block to our north east. Much stronger than modelled even yesterday. GFS 06z giving us a special Christmas tease. Or is it the start of a new trend to colder/less stormy weather?

[Mucka]

No Steve unfortunately, so on his behalf Boom! 

 

 

Yes please take this with a large dose of salt for now, but coldies have had so little to cheer I think we can at least enjoy this Op run.

 

 

Edited December 24, 2015 by Mucka

[Ravelin]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Looks like it lol. Yes, I have also noticed quite significant changes in the short term with regards to the strength of that block to our north east. Much stronger than modelled even yesterday. GFS 06z giving us a special Christmas tease. Or is it the start of a new trend to colder/less stormy weather?

It's not just what's happenig to the NE, look south too. The GFS has been hinting for a few days at getting rid of the Euro high, but the ECM has been resolute at keeping it there in one form or another. Now the ECM is beginning to drop the pressure a bit there as well.

[blizzard81]

God bless the mighty GFS 06z  I don't care if Steve Murr slates it's verification stats lol

[Northern Sky]

He he, some eye candy at last. Looks like the 06z has been on the Christmas sherry!

Some kind of glimmer of hope across the models this morning - at least for a return to more normal temperatures as we move into the new year. I wonder if Nick's MJO is beginning to have some influence on the output?

[Mucka]

ECM still playing Scrooge, latest ensembles are very poor.

 

[blizzard81]

All eyes glued to 06z control run just about to start

[Mucka]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

All eyes glued to 06z control run just about to start

Well it passes the first test of clearing the shortwave East (Yes still THAT shortwave)

 

[minus 9]

Merry christmas from gfs 06z. If only.........

[blizzard81]

Just now, Mucka said:

Well it passes the first test of clearing the shortwave East (Yes still THAT shortwave)

 

Absolutely, I think the ecm in particular was stubborn in not sending this sw east

[Summer Sun]

GFS brings some Christmas cheer for those seeking something colder this morning

[I'M NOT RALLY HERE]

Any chance somebody could point out to us Johnny come latelys what a shortwave is? 

[Hocus Pocus]

5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS brings some Christmas cheer for those seeking something colder this morning

All hail the 06z our new found saviour.

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, I'M NOT RALLY HERE said:

Any chance somebody could point out to us Johnny come latelys what a shortwave is? 

 

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/131/

[karlos1983]

I only have one thing to say, GEM picked it up first 

[I'M NOT RALLY HERE]

Thanks mapants. 

All though I am such a novice that I don't really understand what effects they have on the overall Synoptics pattern. 

[gottolovethisweather]

33 minutes ago, Mucka said:

ECM still playing Scrooge, latest ensembles are very poor.

 

Overall they are trending the right way though Mucka, albeit still up and down but more downs than ups to my mind as we enter D7 and beyond.

 

BTW, on another note, Christmas Day is set to begin colder than initially forecast, with some scraping a frost and with the approaching front bumping into colder air as it travels Northwards, some transient (not much worth talking about in truth) snow over hillier regions is likely. Again, this latter aspect should only effect folk in Northern England Northwards.

Edited December 24, 2015 by gottolovethisweather