Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

[Nouska]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

I have to say I find that anomaly surprisingly high. This was the chart week ending the 27th

Yes, indeed!

Cannot see anything like those anomalies on the most recent close up from IMO.

[lorenzo]

Going to join in with another SSTa plot. Clicking around on here - nope.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=19.43,67.59,1024/loc=1.234,56.397

Speaking of anomalies.

That's the real anomaly story for the Atlantic for which there is a thread here.. https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83908-cooler-atlantic/

[knocker]

28 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Eyes down for a very important 12zs of 2016...well it is 3rd

can we have more black holes here please. Just a bit South!..my fav area

 

You know posting single anomaly charts is most wicked Greenland and if you don't watch it you will be getting 40 lashes and joining me on the most wanted. But more to the point I find that chart a little deceptive.

And the end of the run

Edited January 3, 2016 by knocker

[Yarmy]

1 minute ago, Nouska said:

Yes, indeed!

Cannot see anything like those anomalies on the most recent close up from IMO.

While we're at it, the NOAA SST analysis has a significant -ve anomaly off the East Coast of Canada that the other charts don't seem to show.

 

Perhaps just artefacts of the various interpolation methods employed?

[northwestsnow]

GFS looks to be moving the segment of PV further east early in the run which might open the door for height rises in the west atlantic a tad on this run.

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS looks to be moving the segment of PV further east early in the run which might open the door for height rises in the west atlantic a tad on this run.

Yes looks better and if we can avoid a shortwave running in from the sw and attaching itself to the base of the troughing over the UK then that would be another positive step.

[Mucka]

ECM London ensembles from this morning show a decent cluster going for colder weather from around the 12th, I would imagine that is from a Northerly type.

Currently not very long lasting or solidly supported but in terms of signals at that range it is pretty decent.

In the meanwhile, it will be case of hoping we can eek out something wintry (transient PM flow) from the upcoming unsettled spell 

 

GFS 168h doesn't look great upstream but in terms of lows forming at the base of the trough, they could be a positive rather than a negative if they form after the trough has pushed further east as is the case here though a bit further East would be better. Just need better amplification upstream.

Edited January 3, 2016 by Mucka

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

CFS Birmingham temperatures suggesting a possible prolonged (i.e. more than 24 hours!) colder spell in early February, according to Weatherweb:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=js23RPwxuMQ

 

[northwestsnow]

9 minutes ago, Mucka said:

ECM London ensembles from this morning show a decent cluster going for colder weather from around the 12th, I would imagine that is from a Northerly type.

Currently not very long lasting or solidly supported but in terms of signals at that range it is pretty decent.

In the meanwhile, it will be case of hoping we can eek out something wintry (transient PM flow) from the upcoming unsettled spell 

 

GFS 168h doesn't look great upstream but in terms of lows forming at the base of the trough, they could be a positive rather than a negative if they form after the trough has pushed further east as is the case here though a bit further East would be better. Just need better amplification upstream.

I was thinking it looks much better upstream

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I was thinking it looks much better upstream

 Better/worse? I'm not comparing it, I'm just saying it could be better and that any amplification could be aided by a secondary low if the pattern is far enough East because it has the effect of deepening the trough ahead of it.

Edited January 3, 2016 by Mucka

[knocker]

Whilst at the same time depression 957mb hits Scotland.

Edited January 3, 2016 by knocker

[Captain Shortwave]

Good effort GFS

We could potentially link the Alaskan and Atlantic ridges here by day, there could be quite a potent northerly incoming.

Jinxed it, we do need to push the cold air further south upstream. Strangely we do need to get the States to go into the freezer for once to aid an amplified downstream pattern.

Edited January 3, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Polar Maritime]

Stronger Heights pushing into the Arctic/Greenland with the Jet digging much further South, Should give way to a nice Northerly again as per 6z. Expect lots of detail changes over coming days as the models get to grips with Atlantic slowing down..

Edited January 3, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Mucka]

10 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Good effort GFS

We could potentially link the Alaskan and Atlantic ridges here by day, there could be quite a potent northerly incoming.

 

The improvements are down to the trough development not really upstream developments.

If we want sustained cold we need much better WAA into Greenland from the Atlantic sector with better amplification upstream.

If that happens combined with a deeper trough then we can get a sustained cold spell.

 

check the comparisons from the 006z, the northerly is all about the trough really. We need a strong Atlantic ridge as well to sustain any cold.

 

Edited January 3, 2016 by Mucka

[danthetan]

Can't see a decent northerly developing here unless that low exiting N. Canada doesn't get pushed much further south and track under the uk

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=222&mode=0&carte=1

[Zakos]

 

These charts from the CFS update daily, and I am unsure but I believe that the top image is the forecast from the 22nd December and the image below is the latest prediction from the CFS.

A huge block centered over Northern Russia is now forecast which was non-existant on the previous forecast.

I check these charts daily and that is the best CFS chart i have seen so far this winter. Certainly a definitive negative AO forecast coming from the CFS for January.

I dont know how much the CFS is respected on here. I dont value it at all beyond the 2 month range, but to see such as a dramatic shift in the forecast at such a short range is promising IMO.

It certainly suggests a more southerly tracking jet stream and the block to our North East may not fade away as quickly as some models are suggesting.

 

 

Edited January 3, 2016 by Zakos

[Polar Maritime]

A nice feature showing for the 15th as a low passes Scotland drawing some pretty cold air in with it from the North.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 3, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, danthetan said:

Can't see a decent northerly developing here unless that low exiting N. Canada doesn't get pushed much further south and track under the uk

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=222&mode=0&carte=1

Always the same for the UK isn't it, we need several pieces to fall into place to get cold. I really like the way the trough was modeled, much improved so I hope we can get some consistency with that. Thereafter it is all about upstream so worth keeping an eye on the ensembles and treating this as two separate parts of the puzzle. 1 trough development and 2 upstream amplification to see if there is any consistency with either one.

[SMU]

Poor GFS tonight-

no blocking whatsoever - everything transient-

theres only 2 places we want that atlantic high to go & its already unlikley that greenland is one of its destinations - so scandi is the other locale thats even less likely -

lets hope the ECM 12z is more fruitful -

s

 

[danthetan]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Always the same for the UK isn't it, we need several pieces to fall into place to get cold. I really like the way the trough was modeled, much improved so I hope we can get some consistency with that. Thereafter it is all about upstream so worth keeping an eye on the ensembles and treating this as two separate parts of the puzzle. 1 trough development and 2 upstream amplification to see if there is any consistency with either one.

I'm afraid so, I can't complain with the way things seem to be heading I'm of a mind the only way is up after December's effort at winter

[SMU]

29 minutes ago, Zakos said:

 

These charts from the CFS update daily, and I am unsure but I believe that the top image is the forecast from the 22nd December and the image below is the latest prediction from the CFS.

A huge block centered over Northern Russia is now forecast which was non-existant on the previous forecast.

I check these charts daily and that is the best CFS chart i have seen so far this winter. Certainly a definitive negative AO forecast coming from the CFS for January.

I dont know how much the CFS is respected on here. I dont value it at all beyond the 2 month range, but to see such as a dramatic shift in the forecast at such a short range is promising IMO.

It certainly suggests a more southerly tracking jet stream and the block to our North East may not fade away as quickly as some models are suggesting.

 

 

You may want possibly reconsider the words from

best so far to not quite as sh*te -

whilst the anomalies may show a partial -AO they also represent a classic +NAO with negative anomalies over iceland & positive anomalies extending east into europe away from the azores -

so classically mild for the UK- also the negative AO forecasts have somewhat tailed off to the mean now only showing around -2 & the clear drivers of this pattern are the + PNA ridge & the Kara high...

no good for us im afraid....

Edited January 3, 2016 by Steve Murr

[tight isobar]

Yes the gfs shows at best "transient" cool incur coupled with high elevation snowfall.

With Any low level wintry precipitation as short lived as the the of a gnat.

However I'll firm on suggesting that the Ecm (should) be firmer/cleaner on any northerly evolution..

So still time for some detention of exacting' any perhaps still hope! ..at least of some countrywide interest. 

[winterof79]

16 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

A nice feature showing for the 15th as a low passes Scotland drawing some pretty cold air in with it from the North.

 

 

 

 

liking that PM.Things shifting in the right direction when taking into account GPs thoughts and others.Winter has a long time to run yet and I include March which can be equally as cold with the correct parameters.

[Mucka]

Little in GFS ensembles to suggest this will go our way unfortunately so over to ECM.

Edited January 3, 2016 by Mucka

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Come on, I deserve the T252 chart coming off! but another key run that's different in FI, high pressure in charge at 372