Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

[snowblizzard]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I'm not sure I have the energy for another easterly. I fear for my sanity if it were to fail 

Well, prepare to go raving mad because it's almost certain to fail.

Remember, this is the UK!

The land of South Westerly's, rain , wind and mild sectors!  

Edited January 3, 2016 by snowblizzard

[Allseasons-Si]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

I'm not sure I have the energy for another easterly. I fear for my sanity if it were to fail 

another easterly?,we didn't get one in the first place,but i know what you mean karlos,(models showing it in FI)

1 hour ago, snowblizzard said:

Well, prepare to go raving mad because it's almost certain to fail.

Remember, this is the UK!

Almost curtain to fail?,how do you know that!

there are tentative signs that the ball will be in our park come mid-jan onwards,have a look back from the post's like GP,chino and the more knowledgeable on here plus the strat thread for more info,of which is a good read

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84231-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20152016/?page=20#comment-3313052

on a plus note,the ensembles are trending on the cool/cold side from mid month

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim

http://projects.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=12

http://www.meteo24.fr/fr/home/meteo-france-et-europe/passion-meteo/ensemble-de-previsions.html?eps=london

make of it what you will,as it stands it looks like it's trending colder.

 

Edited January 3, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[Swave Snow]

Happy New Year Everyone don't shout me down.  But haven't we all been informed before that a few fails before we get the real deal. 

 

Maybe that's what's happening 

 

We can but hope can't we

Edited January 3, 2016 by Swave Snow

[knocker]

Overall the GFS can best be summed up by more of the same. Wet and at times windy. Out resident low slowly moved east during the first half of the week before the next system moves in next weekend. Whilst this going on it's quite interesting to track a depression that was spawned in the Caribbean at T102. It makes it's way NE on the jet and resides mid Atlantic 960mb by T180. From there it's but a short hop to the UK by T204 where it sits over Ireland 949mb bringing storm force winds (75-80kts) to the south west. That's the theory this morning but this of course will be revised as the days tick by, Hopefully.

Edited January 3, 2016 by knocker

[The Beast From The East]

22 minutes ago, knocker said:

Overall the GFS can best be summed up by more of the same. Wet and at times windy. Out resident low slowly moved east during the first half of the week before the next system moves in next weekend. Whilst this going on it's quite interesting to track a depression that was spawned in the Caribbean at T102. It makes it's way NE on the jet and resides mid Atlantic 960mb by T180. From there it's but a short hop to the UK by T204 where it sits over Ireland 949mb bringing storm force winds (75-80kts) to the south west. That's the theory this morning but this of course will be revised as the days tick by, Hopefully.

Thanks for your updates every morning, I struggle to work out what the models are showing so your updates are very handy before heading off to work. 

[kumquat]

Yep (as noted above), could be a vicious storm at some point in the next ten days. Out to 240 you know something is brewing but you don't know the where and when. 00Z GFS showing this nasty feature:

Signs of some height rises in Greeny / Mid-Atlantic are few and far between but would be a welcome contrast. Hope the signals out beyond day 10 can solidify and verify over the next week or so.

Edit: Indeed, the next shortwave rushing up the Jet at about 204 could be the "Daddy" for the next pattern change. I'm calling it the "where's your tool?" update.

Edited January 3, 2016 by kumquat

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Certainly period 10 -15 Jan [new moon/perigee period] is a storm watch period with a likely scenario of vey deep LPs approaching from SW with accompanying storm force coastal winds.  Mild? or will it interlock with some colder air.   GFS having some of it

10th

11th

 

13th

 

BFTP

[knocker]

The only significant snow event on the ecm run is on Thursday ahead of the front moving NE and is confined to the high ground in the north and Scotland.

[IDO]

Ignoring the 18z, as despite some saying it has the same input as the main two runs, it's propensity to produce outlandish runs does fly in the face of that!

The 0z continues the theme of very little signs of any change for the UK out till around the last third of Jan. There are runs and members that do produce some interesting changes but these are rarely there the next run and there is certainly no trend yet. Though the fact the GFS is sniffing out Atlantic amplification suggests that is coming in line with background signals for the last third of January. D15 GEFS clusters have 30% supporting a ridge (brief or not) over the UK and 70% go with some type of Atlantic/westerly flow.

It may be the stopped clock syndrome but at D10 all three main models have agreed on the placement of the residue heights from the EPO block, in the Arctic region:

  GEFS 

Where it goes from there could assist any Atlantic amplification (or vice versa). The D10 GEFS mean suggesting members are also moving towards that Artic HP cell^^^ ECM has changed how that wedge of higher pressure is handled compared to last night, moving towards GEM and therefore subtle changes to the UK upper air profile and mesoscale detail. 

No sign of the mild Nov/Dec in the next couple of weeks, very close to the seasonal averages as far as the mean is concerned for London. So in prime winter time there will no doubt be opportunities for snow up north and on high ground if we can get the right combo in the cooler interludes:

   CFS w3 & w4:  strat heights at 30hpa: 

The strat is still being punched around and the experts remain very hopeful it will succumb in due course^^^.

^^^ CFS w3 & w4 are not seeing any developments for cold at the moment, just a gradual slow down of the Atlantic steam roller. So the trop NH profile is prime for a shock to the system. 

Reasonable confidence up to D10 with the general long wave pattern, but fluid afterwards, though with only nominal signs of cold setting in, but a 30% chance of some drier weather at the end of FI, especially the further south you are, but this has trended the wrong way over the last 24 hours. Its a case of waiting for model output over the next 7-10 days to see if we can get anything blocked in late January. I get the impression it is more likely to be a cold start to Spring rather than a cold end to Winter but still time for this to change.

[West is Best]

Having been offered some signs of hope 48 hours ago we're now back in an Atlantic attack. With the jet stream like this there's not much we can do but batten down the hatches and hope:

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY JAN 3RD 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A deep depression lies to the West of the UK with troughs swinging NE across the South and West before deceleratiung across NE Britain with a strong SE flow ahead of them and a showery SW flow behind them.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles ranges from between 1500ft just to the NE of Scotland to above 5000ft over SW England. Snowfall can be expected across the hills of Scotland today and tomorrow especially the mountains of NE Scotland

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Continuing unsettled and very windy at times with further heavy rain or showers at times with snow possible on Northern hills for a time next week at least.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream incessantly crossing quickly East across the Atlantic and Southern England and France. Low pressure remains close by over the UK with the flow moving slightly further North in the second week but maintaining a strong profile across the Atlantic and the British Isles still even at Day 14.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The theme of the GFS operational run today shows 14 days of unsettled and often windy conditions with gales and severe gales at times. In the first week rainfall will be very variable under slow moving Low pressure with colder air across the North giving rise to some snowfall over the hills. Then in the second week a severe storm is shown early next week which then brings a more undulating pattern between wet and windy spells and brighter colder weather with more scattered showers and quieter weather though the main theme of the weather remains very volatile and Atlantic driven throughout.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational run this morning with the wet and very windy spell continuing over the next 10 days or so with a build of pressure across the UK late in the two week period bringing a change to fine, cold and settled weather across the UK with sharp overnight frosts, light winds and freezing fog patches but sunny spells by day.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO today shows a wet and very windy week to come as Low pressure remains over and later to the NW of the UK with a strong Westerly flow across the UK driving bands of rain and showers across all areas with snow at times over the Northern hills in the form of showers but more generally over the hills of the NE in the short term in a cold SE flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a continuation of the unsettled spell with strong winds and rain at times on troughs repeatedly driven across the UK in a SW flow decelerating and becoming slow moving early in the week across the NE of the UK.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning also shows an unsettled and often windy 10 days of weather to come across the UK with temperatures near average for most of the time. Winds will exceed gale or severe gale at times especially near coasts of the South and West. Later in the period a spell of severe gsles are possible more widely as a vigorous Low swings NE over the NW bringing mild air temporarily to the South and East but more importantly heavy rainfall yet again especially over the North and West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows no differences to the rest with winds off the Atlntic throughout, strong at times and delivering spells of rain and showers in association of Low pressure either over or to the NW of the UK. Some cold air under a SE flow in the NE will be swept away from midweek with temperatures generally near normal and perhaps a bit above at times in the SE by this time next week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows little respite too with deep Low pressure across the UK throughout with cyclonic winds, sometimes strong to gale force and accompanied by rain and showers with snow on the hills of the North at times, In the very end days of the run a slowing Jet flow across the Atlantic pumps up a ridge which looks like it could give rise to somewhat drier, quieter and colder weather across the UK soon after the expiry of the Day 10 period as it drifts across the UK from the West.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart remains mostly Atlantic driven though small but subtle differences lie within the chart. It looks as though Low pressure will divide to both the NE and NW with room for a cold ridge to develop close to the UK at that time with the Jet Stream likely to remain well South of the UK. So while some rain at times remains the overall theme temperatures close to average and spells of lighter winds could give rise to some night frosts and drier spells.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme of the output longer term today shows no significant let up in the basically wet and windy conditions though a growing trend for High pressure to build temporarily at least to the West of the UK is hinted at still from 10 days.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  at 96.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.5 pts to UKMO at 87.6 pts then GFS at 86.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 64.5 pts over GFS's 60.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 46.2 pts to 45.7 pts. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS We remain focused on looking into the realms of fantasy time points within the models this morning to see prospects of any major change in the overall theme of wet and windy weather across the UK. There remains little desire from any output to remove deep Low pressure areas from lying either across the UK or close to the NW each bringing spells of wet and very windy weather with gales at times and severe gales possible too in places later. Temperatures look like being close to average which in the strong winds will feel colder than the mercury suggests especially when coupled with the rain. Snowfall will occur locally, mostly in the NE of the UK early in the week and more generally in showers over Central and Northern high ground later. There will be some mild air over SE Europe at times later which may flirt with the SE at times in the second week but the theme remains too wet and wild to be of great significance in the UK on this morning's output. In the longer term there remains some interest in lifting pressure levels somewhat from the West as the Jet flow weakens and High pressure is ridged North somewhat over the Atlantic. This develops into a full blown cold anticyclone on the last frames of the GFS Operational run this morning and ECM too reflects this possibility too over the Atlantic in it's final day which if verified would give a welcome relief from the rain and winds of recently and give rise to some frosty weather unseen so far this Winter just outside of the term of it's run this morning. It is unfortunate that this change is still so far out and subject to moderation or removal from the runs in the coming days but changes have to start somewhere and while there might not be the first signs of a very wintry spell of weather shown something quieter and more seasonal in the form of dry, cold weather with frosty nights would at least be quite welcome to many I'm sure. Lets hope it develops and spreads between the upcoming outputs in the days to come. 

Next Update on Monday January 4th 2016 at 09:00 approx

[Frosty.]

20 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Having been offered some signs of hope 48 hours ago we're now back in an Atlantic attack. With the jet stream like this there's not much we can do but batten down the hatches and hope:

 

At least it's a southerly tracking jet so there should be some colder incursions and no blowtorch conditions as we had previously. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

At least it's a southerly tracking jet so there should be some colder incursions and no blowtorch conditions as we had previously. 

Yes and we must remain hopeful of Greeny height rises after mid month as suggested by GP

[mountain shadow]

Thanks Gibby.  Not a bad ECM day ten mean, there must be some decent Greenie heights in the postage stamps.

There remains hope of colder drier period mid month.

[Ali1977]

Latest METO seasonal model shunts any potential dry spells back to 17/18th according to Ian on Twitter. 

[cyclonic happiness]

30 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

At least it's a southerly tracking jet so there should be some colder incursions and no blowtorch conditions as we had previously. 

I don't know if that's any better. If it's gonna be extremely wet and windy, I'd rather it be mild.

This really is turning into Japanese water torture isn't it?   

[nick sussex]

Nice ECM trend this morning with the Azores high displacement. The GFS 00hrs run was flatter upstream and marked differences between it and the ECM regarding the handling of the southern/north streams of the jet over there.

The GFS 06hrs run has moved towards the ECM over the USA at T162hrs.

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Nice ECM trend this morning with the Azores high displacement. The GFS 00hrs run was flatter upstream and marked differences between it and the ECM regarding the handling of the southern/north streams of the jet over there.

The GFS 06hrs run has moved towards the ECM over the USA at T162hrs.

GFS 6z looks blinkin awful to me nick just look at the strength of the jet coming out of the states at 168 onwards.

 

[bobbydog]

has anyone noticed how the atlantic train 'slams the brakes on' at around 96hrs. its happened over the last 2 runs and is more pronounced on this one. it decides to find an alternative route - more southerly, which allows a ridge to form behind it, pushing towards greenland. lets see where this goes....

[nick sussex]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

GFS 6z looks blinkin awful to me nick just look at the strength of the jet coming out of the states at 168 onwards.

 

Don't worry its not awful, regardless of what it does after T168hrs. You must have the developing low over the central USA as this helps to develop the ridge in eastern Canada.

Its still makes more of shortwaves which attach to the UK troughing forcing high pressure further ne towards southern Europe.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Don't worry its not awful, regardless of what it does after T168hrs. You must have the developing low over the central USA as this helps to develop the ridge in eastern Canada.

Its still makes more of shortwaves which attach to the UK troughing forcing high pressure further ne towards southern Europe.

cheers nick

[nick sussex]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

cheers nick

You're welcome. The importance of the pattern around T168hrs effects the movement of the PV to the north, you need something to help pull that away from Greenland and allow the Arctic ridge to work south into that area.

You need the USA low to engage those low heights and pull them west. At the same time the Canadian ridge works its way eastwards into the Atlantic.

Great lower resolution GFS so far, nice to see those southern stream lows developing in the eastern seaboard, these will continue to pull at the PV and allow an opportunity for a shortwave to head se.

Edited January 3, 2016 by nick sussex

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

4 hours ago, kumquat said:

Yep (as noted above), could be a vicious storm at some point in the next ten days. Out to 240 you know something is brewing but you don't know the where and when. 00Z GFS showing this nasty feature:

Signs of some height rises in Greeny / Mid-Atlantic are few and far between but would be a welcome contrast. Hope the signals out beyond day 10 can solidify and verify over the next week or so.

Edit: Indeed, the next shortwave rushing up the Jet at about 204 could be the "Daddy" for the next pattern change. I'm calling it the "where's your tool?" update.

Luckily the latest GFS run pushes that low further north and it's not quite as severe, looking at the previous run's wind gusts, that setup would've put 60mph+ gusts over central london for over 15 hours, and peaking the gusts at 85mph inland 

[bluearmy]

The ECM ens seem keen on this mean mid Atlantic upper  ridge around day 10. Infact highish anomolys sustain in general around greeny week 2. I think there is a good chance for the jet to be displaced quite well to our south around mid month.  There has always looked to be a good opportunity for a northerly of sorts around that time as the Atlantic slows in relation to deep troughing on the eastern side of the states during week 2.  upper ridges in the ne Atlantic are always interesting as they can have very big effects on the jet. Just got to avoid euro heights picking up again and if we manage that, then we remain in the raffle. 

[Ali1977]

Awesome FI, is that called a cross polar flow!!

Edited January 3, 2016 by Ali1977