Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

[Summer Sun]

ECM charts will be available by up-to 20 minutes earlier on the weather outlook from today's 12z UK thickness also available

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/datmdlout.aspx

[knocker]

Wet and windy next Thursday

 

 

[Day 10]

We might not be on the doorstep of cold and snow but at least we can see the Northern Hemisphere profile looks in far better shape for possible shots of winter in the coming weeks:

Beginning of Dec to in a few days time.

[Carlrg]

11 minutes ago, knocker said:

Wet and windy next Thursday

 

 

Luckily it zips through pretty sharpish.

 

[carinthian]

Latest GFS and UKMO in solid agreement at 144 hours. Thereafter, GFS slow things down again on this latest run and digs in a sharper trough into western Europe to allow another pressure rise towards Scandinavia.  Lets see if ECM picks this up this evening.

 C

 

[karyo]

Disappointing 12 GFS with no proper Atlantic ridge and therefore no northerly.

[mountain shadow]

Dreadful GFS run. No Northerly and the Euro High returns. I hope to God this Ops run is wrong or we can write off January.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Dreadful GFS run. No Northerly and the Euro High returns. I hope to God this Ops run is wrong or we can write off January.

While i agree the 12z is poor, lets not be too quick to write anything off.

[Mucka]

GFS still holding the trough back further NW than the Euros which would give a more Southwesterly and milder regime. The UKMO would likely be somewhat cooler.

144 comparisons.

For me the UKMO solution is preferable as getting low pressure further Southeast will aid any amplification to the West toward mid month although the GFS maintains better Arctic heights this run.

Edited January 2, 2016 by Mucka

[mountain shadow]

Just now, Greenland1080 said:

Write off the whole of Jan on one sole GFS 12z....blimey I've heard of post Xmas blues but that's right up there.....the operational will be slow picking up the other signals yet. Relax an enjoy Sat night

Noi, im not writing January off. I was basing my message on the GFS 12z only. 

[Captain Shortwave]

I think the GFS has gone down the pub early today. A seriously impressive Alaskan ridge which pushes through the north pole and meets with the waning high over the Kara sea.

That causes the longwave pattern to become very sluggish, also that Atlantic system never really engages with the cold air to our north east which is another mechanism for pushing that low north east across the UK, so we end up in the influence of a very slow moving Atlantic trough with a mass of instability in the Atlantic which means a lot of thundery showers pushing into southern and western coasts. This could cause some issues in terms of flooding in prone areas, especially Wales and earlier parts of the north east where fronts become slow moving.

 

The UKMO and GEM keep a more mobile pattern, albeit still very wet.

Given the potential to generate a split at tropospheric level of the polar vortex, then maybe it might be pragmatic to keep an open mind on the output beyond week 1.

Edited January 2, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Polar Maritime]

Quote

Given the potential to generate a split at tropospheric level of the polar vortex, then maybe it might be pragmatic to keep an open mind on the output beyond week 1.

Very much agree there C.S. Also how much/if/ the little pocket of Heights move West and get cut off into Greenland..

 

Edited January 2, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[bobbydog]

hmm....

discuss....

 

[Gibby]

I wouldn't write off January this early in the month but I can understand the frustration after the recent failure. What makes things more frustrating is the recurring desire to raise heights to the South and SW on the GFS runs more than once recently and tonight's 12z has endorsed this further unfortunately.

[Ali1977]

If the weather has a tendency to even itself out over time, Feb is going to be epic!! Hopefully!! Not looking at the latest GFS though!! Not Feb yet however.

[cornish snow]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

If the weather has a tendency to even itself out over time, Feb is going to be epic!! Hopefully!! Not looking at the latest GFS though!! Not Feb yet however.

Turn cold just in time for Easter,perfect

 

[A.J]

now now, lets cut out the provocative posts please..........and the throwaway one-liners as well......constructive model discussion please, plenty of other threads for ramps, winters over posts and other content that have no place in here............thanks

[Tim Bland]

Plenty of snow for high ground on Thursday showing on the ECM. Uppers of -4 and thickness of 524. Can someone post the snow charts when they appear or point me in their direction please? 

 

 

[SMU]

After the continued awful 12s we may as well comment on the here & now

ECM 120

rain / snow & a 957 mb low - so gusts heading up to the 80 MPH mark

not great for the already flooded areas-

 

Could be a LOT of snow for the hills of scotland - especially as the cold digs back into the extreme North at 144 -

Edited January 2, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Sky Full]

We all know that the models don't control the weather - they just try to predict solutions based on current conditions.  I imagine that the computer programs calculating these solutions mainly rely on historical data and they will tend to prefer solutions that favour average conditions. They are, therefore, very unlikely to predict the unpredictable and yet our weather is almost totally unpredictable accurately beyond 120 hours   It is still entirely possible that January could turn very cold, and this could happen within even a 72 hour period, so let's all keep looking for the signs - the models will show them eventually!  

Unfortunately there is nothing showing up yet though and things are not changing  very quickly.  This LP system takes six days to pass us by.....

6th January....

12th January....

 

[Weather Observer]

I am looking for upsides in what is a pretty poor outlook for cold lovers. Talk of Winter being over is defeatist; it  is just that it has not begun yet. The charts do not show anything of interest until the second half of this month but what happens after that is anyone's guess.

Oh and the downside. We might get an early Spring 

 

[bobbydog]

17 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Or, you could do a detailed post illustrating your point and if it goes wrong we could throw the " emperors clothes" critique your way.

ok then. i was pointing out the (vague maybe?) similarities of the alaskan ridge and the atlantic driven weather in 1991 to now. if you look through the archives, the hemispheric pattern is not dissimilar to what is being modelled now. bearing in mind the forecasts of the MJO and the seasonal forecast by netweather, plus musings from other professionals regarding cold weather towards the end of jan- beginning of february and timings of any potential SSW, it wouldnt be out of the question that january may not deliver but february could be worth the wait. i'm certainly not claiming it will happen. thats why i said "discuss" and not 'expect a repeat of 1991' 

i just threw it out there for discussion. no wild claims here...

[SMU]

ECM 192 has another system travelling east across scotland in the cold air -

if things go along according to the ECM the Northern part of scotland & Shetland ( maybe areas slightly further south ) could see a fair depth by this time next sunday !!

 

Edited January 2, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Yorlum11]

 

Maybe of interest later.

[Eskimo]

Well the ECM gives southern UK a bout of snowfall on the last frame.