South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

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From fergie:

 

Some bothersome-looking EC-ENS solutions are emerging more for southern areas into next week through to mid-month. 'Cold' issues are quite evidently a mere sideline in terms of current medium range model interest. It's going to be a very interesting period (for those with broad weather fascination) with potential for some decidedly volatile conditions. 

 

 

 

This is exactly what I had in mind happening, the jet going south moving the depressions further south.. Hold on to your hats folks next few weeks could be grim

[10 Days Away]

3 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

I remember that storm, gave me quite a fright coming over lol. Like the way the person taking the vid calls the shelf cloud a wall cloud, then near the end of the vid trains his camera on a wall cloud and says nothing. 

Yes ... I  realised my mistake in the video write up on YT  after I uploaded it.... I got a bit over excited  and a bit confused !

[snowray]

Could some of us get a covering to night I wonder? Or am I seeing things?   

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4 minutes ago, snowray said:

Could some of us get a covering to night I wonder? Or am I seeing things?   

Dont do it lol! I spotted it earlier but kept it well quiet I don't think so... Its to do with a little depression that runs south tonight...  It won't be of snow only rain the model you picked is really the only one going with the idea.. 

 

[Jimmyh]

hmm a week on Friday I am on a plane to Valencia hopefull the jet has wandered south. @ Kent wot are you seeing for Monday out of interest

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Surrey said:

This is exactly what I had in mind happening, the jet going south moving the depressions further south.. Hold on to your hats folks next few weeks could be grim

Undertones of excitement & adrenaline? 

[Daniel*]

8 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Dont do it lol! I spotted it earlier but kept it well quiet I don't think so... Its to do with a little depression that runs south tonight...  It won't be of snow only rain the model you picked is really the only one going with the idea.. 

 

You're not showing the appropriate charts see the bulge near western isles this is bringing precip southwards down the country and indeed there could be wintriness early in the day.

 

[snowray]

8 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Dont do it lol! I spotted it earlier but kept it well quiet I don't think so... Its to do with a little depression that runs south tonight...  It won't be of snow only rain the model you picked is really the only one going with the idea.. 

 

Fun though, FAX charts look ok too. GFS shows it as snow further North, its the Eastern edge thats of interest.

[Daniel*]

Just now, snowray said:

Fun though, FAX charts look ok too. GFS shows it as snow further North, its the Eastern edge thats of interest.

The euro4 has not bad parameters for 9am.

Dew points - check

Uppers - check (don't expect powder snow  ) 

Temperature 2m - check

[snowray]

7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The euro4 has not bad parameters for 9am.

Dew points - check

Uppers - check (don't expect powder snow  ) 

Temperature 2m - check

Indeed, checked the euro4 too and it certainly looks just about good enough for a flake or two in places, probably above 100m best but if the band of PPN survives the journey South, well you just never know. Timing good too, 6-9am.

[Kent Blizzard]

26 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

hmm a week on Friday I am on a plane to Valencia hopefull the jet has wandered south. @ Kent wot are you seeing for Monday out of interest

Just the strength of the wind/gusts on Monday following on from Surrey's post with charts about the winds Sunday into Monday for us down here, perhaps a few lucky ones in the NW of the UK might see some white stuff for a time, the wind/gusts could be quite potent  through the Channel and anyone flying over the Bay of Biscay early hours.

Edited February 2, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

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I really wouldn't be getting any hopes up re tonight's rain:

 

Regional forecast for London & South East England

Very windy and cold.

Today:

Staying windy but with cloud and patchy rain clearing through the morning to leave a largely fine and dry afternoon with sunny spells, though it will feel chilly. Maximum Temperature 8°C.

Tonight:

Winds continuing to ease with long clear periods at first allowing a rural grass frost in places. Clouding over later from the north but most parts will stay dry. Minimum Temperature 1°C.

Wednesday:

A fairly cloudy morning is expected with outbreaks of rain. During the afternoon most parts will become dry possibly with some bright or sunny periods developing from the north. Maximum Temperature 8°C.

[snowray]

Ian F just stated on the moans thread that snow has been forecast, above 200m mainly North/Midland. But who knows, the Downs, Chilterns may get something if the PPN survives the journey South. 12z might offer some interest.

 

I love surprise snowfall the best!

[Flash Elvis]

1 hour ago, Surrey said:

I really wouldn't be getting any hopes up re tonight's rain:

 

Regional forecast for London & South East England

Very windy and cold.

Today:

Staying windy but with cloud and patchy rain clearing through the morning to leave a largely fine and dry afternoon with sunny spells, though it will feel chilly. Maximum Temperature 8°C.

Tonight:

Winds continuing to ease with long clear periods at first allowing a rural grass frost in places. Clouding over later from the north but most parts will stay dry. Minimum Temperature 1°C.

Wednesday:

A fairly cloudy morning is expected with outbreaks of rain. During the afternoon most parts will become dry possibly with some bright or sunny periods developing from the north. Maximum Temperature 8°C.

Looks like good old lamp post watching with a cold beer tonight!!!

As for the weekend and beginning of the week...I think my weather sensors will be coming down to keep them safe "IF" we get those predicted gusts, but as always plenty of spanners to be thrown about still 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Flash Elvis said:

Looks like good old lamp post watching with a cold beer tonight!!!

As for the weekend and beginning of the week...I think my weather sensors will be coming down to keep them safe "IF" we get those predicted gusts, but as always plenty of spanners to be thrown about still 

If the forecast's anything to go by, magic mushrooms might be more appropriate?

[snowray]

Well we have a bit of interest on the GFS high res now so slight upgrade again, not as much PPN this time in the region though. Its times like this that anything can happen.

[snowray]

It has snowed in April around here with these sort of uppers/dew points, so I can't see why it cannot happen in early February. This week is historically the coldest part of the year, well it should be anyway.  

[Flash Elvis]

5 minutes ago, snowray said:

It has snowed in April around here with these sort of uppers/dew points, so I can't see why it cannot happen in early February. This week is historically the coldest part of the year, well it should be anyway.  

SHOULD 

[Daniel*]

Surrey no one is interested in tonight's rain do you have an agenda? it is what comes towards our region approx 6-10am Wednesday morning.

Lovely day  

Here is Stave Hill with sun gradually setting in the background & some more pics:

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8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Surrey no one is interested in tonight's rain do you have an agenda? it is what comes towards our region approx 6-10am Wednesday morning.

Lovely day  

Here is Stave Hill with sun gradually setting in the background & some more pics:

All I am saying is we don't need to get our hopes up on this.. 

I know winter has been bad.. But really? 

 

Beaut of a day here to, nice pics!  

Edited February 2, 2016 by Surrey

[Flash Elvis]

12 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Surrey no one is interested in tonight's rain do you have an agenda? it is what comes towards our region approx 6-10am Wednesday morning.

 

Enlighten us then!!!!! 

[snowray]

[Methuselah]

Come on, guys? What's all this nonsense about an 'agenda' - unless there's a suspicion that someone on here is secretly controlling the weather? If it snows late tonight/ early tomorrow then it snows; if, as I suspect, nobody away from the tops of the Kent Weald, Chilterns or the Downs, sees anything more that a touch of sleet - so be it. There's nowt anyone can do about it!

[Daniel*]

Just now, Flash Elvis said:

Enlighten us then!!!!! 

See the above if you have eyes  

@Surrey well I don't really care, it would just be nice to see in this rather void winter.

proof is in the pudding Elvis.. Could end up a bust for all I know. However the parameters are there for snow to fall to low levels especially London/North Kent northwards.

As illustrated by that WBFL chart snowray provided.

[snowray]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Come on, guys? What's all this nonsense about an 'agenda' - unless there's a suspicion that someone on here is secretly controlling the weather? If it snows late tonight/ early tomorrow then it snows; if, as I suspect, nobody away from the tops of the Kent Weald, Chilterns or the Downs, sees anything more that a touch of sleet - so be it. There's nowt anyone can do about it!

Well I am not into conspiracies particularly, but sometimes this Winter in particular it has looked as though someone has pushed a switch somewhere! I was watching this Northerly develop on the FAX charts in recent days and noticed the way it got shifted violently East in less than 24hrs seemed just a bit far fetched, it seemed to me that this should have been more of a toppler, but hey, what do I know...