Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

yes it just makes you think the met office have this game nailed now and the models almost correct towards mo predictions.

To be honest I wish I hadn't looked at the 18z. I was literally stunned when I saw the 12z GFS and ECM at work. Seems I accept a cold spell is on the way, tell people and then the downgrades happen. For that reason, I'm out....there is no cold spell on the way

[terrier]

Got a horrible feeling that the gfs has picked up a new signal tonight. Looks very similar to what we have been hearing from the met. But guess we will know more in the morning. 

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, -Bomber- said:

God it's one run. M.O and Ecm were great and it's FI in GFS when it goes t1ts up compared to previous run. Who'd read this forum lol

Par for the course,  worst run of the day is always the trend setter  Post above states a tweet from fergie  that he believes the gfs brings mobility to quickly . Oh well  wait for tomorows runs  im sure there be more twists and turns.

 

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Ouch, cold cluster definitely not as pronounced on the 18z suite. I was hoping for a cracking 18z then early to bed...looks like I'll be staying up for the 0z now. Here we go again eh!

Control looks to follow the op there too.

OMG I used to do that in the old days, with the hour time difference now its just too late even for a night owl like myself!

I think two issues remain re getting over the final hurdle, how quickly shortwave energy clears from near Iceland and how far east/west the pattern sets up.

We'll see in the morning but I don't remember a cold spell when there wasn't some GFS inflicted drama, it seems to go with the territory.

[Geordiesnow]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

To be honest I wish I hadn't looked at the 18z. I was literally stunned when I saw the 12z GFS and ECM at work. Seems I accept a cold spell is on the way, tell people and then the downgrades happen. For that reason, I'm out....there is no cold spell on the way

But its not a downgrade on the cold, what the 18Z longer term shows is a variation of what might happen which indicates the cold may not last as long as some would of liked but in terms of the blast of cold air for next week, I don't see any downgrades there. Again, I think people expect one solution to be picked up and expect it to last all the way to 0 hours remaining largely unchanged but it never happens like that regardless of the weather type.

Tomorrow morning runs are not going to be crucial but it will be interesting what direction they will head in the longer term. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, nick sussex said:

OMG I used to do that in the old days, with the hour time difference now its just too late even for a night owl like myself!

I think two issues remain re getting over the final hurdle, how quickly shortwave energy clears from near Iceland and how far east/west the pattern sets up.

We'll see in the morning but I don't remember a cold spell when there wasn't some GFS inflicted drama, it seems to go with the territory.

I'll regret it tomorrow whilst I'm dying in work. More especially if the 0z is worse!

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I'll regret it tomorrow whilst I'm dying in work. More especially if the 0z is worse!

OMG you're working aswell! My success rate at viewing 00hrs runs wasn't great , I was beginning to think I was jinxing things so everyone will be happy to know I won't be staying up for it.

[Cheshire Freeze]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

OMG you're working aswell! My success rate at viewing 00hrs runs wasn't great , I was beginning to think I was jinxing things so everyone will be happy to know I won't be staying up for it.

Hardcore me! 10 hours done today.....in retail! urgh

Probably the reason I'm a 90% Victor Meldrew

Edited January 7, 2016 by CreweCold

[geordiekev]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There is a danger here looking at the flow around SW Greenland that we end up with SWerlies at around 240, hope not but.....

As many on here who followed the Nov/Dec 10 charts will recall for weeks the FI charts were constantly trying to break down the cold (especially gfs) but it didn't transpire, apart from a small blip, for what seemed like months of models.

As Hammond on bbc said earlier, once a very cold or very hot pattern sets in it can take a while to shift and I'd be surprised they even mentioned this without there models now flipping to the same hymn sheet, as we know they are v cautious at mid term predictions.

Edited January 7, 2016 by geordiekev
Typo

[Roger J Smith]

I think there might be a slight tendency to downgrade the cold for a while, not in a large way, but as models pick up meso-scale forcing signals such as transfer of heat from Baltic and North Sea to the regional air masses. You can see the Baltic losing heat in real time on satellite imagery. This plays out in subtle ways like shaving 1 or 2 degrees off temperature profiles and energizing waves. Also I expect the Atlantic to try to fight back around the 20th to 24th. That might result in snow but don't be too surprised if a sharp gradient develops around 45-50 N and then a more comprehensive cold pattern would follow with some cooling of the regional sea surfaces accomplished and this energy peak past. I am very optimistic now that a long cold spell is in the works but I don't think it is going to set in quite as easily as some model runs are showing.

[MidnightSnow]

58 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Ouch, cold cluster definitely not as pronounced on the 18z suite. I was hoping for a cracking 18z then early to bed...looks like I'll be staying up for the 0z now. Here we go again eh!

Control looks to follow the op there too.

CC, would you mind posting your thoughts on the 0z later? I'm going to be up into the early hours myself so I will check this back to this thread. I doubt many others will be up at that time and I'd like to know if the 18z was just a blip. (I'm still learning how to read the models.  )
 

[Jayfromcardiff]

3 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

CC, would you mind posting your thoughts on the 0z later? I'm going to be up into the early hours myself so I will check this back to this thread. I doubt many others will be up at that time and I'd like to know if the 18z was just a blip. (I'm still learning how to read the models.  )
 

I'll probably stay up for it too, any idea what time the 0z runs come out? I should know by know considering I've been on this forum for years lol.

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

CC, would you mind posting your thoughts on the 0z later? I'm going to be up into the early hours myself so I will check this back to this thread. I doubt many others will be up at that time and I'd like to know if the 18z was just a blip. (I'm still learning how to read the models.  )
 

Of course....may not be up right up until the end of the run but I'm sure my lovely weather friend @Mucka will take over the baton

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

I'll probably stay up for it too, any idea what time the 0z runs come out? I should know by know considering I've been on this forum for years lol.

0z GFS starts coming out at 3.30. I should be able to get a good idea where it's headed by about 4.10

[snowangel32]

After hours of reading and observing some serious eye candy, but then I came to the last page and that damm gfs throwing a spanner into the works, but even the gfs worst case scenario gives us 5 days of cold which I am sure will bring snow to many areas. We would have ran all the way to the bank if that chart was shown a few weeks ago but after witnessing all the other charts today our expectations went through the roof and dreams of a 2010 repeat. So even if the gfs has spotted something which is entirely possible don't get to downhearted because next week will be more seasonal with some brutal cold setting in. Great read today Netweather is special on days like this. I feel tomorrow's runs will be crucial we don't want to see that ridge weaken anymore. 

[geordiekev]

Remember night owls, Jack Frost wont come if your still awake. So I know who to blame if it goes Pete tong .

I expect many small changes in the next few runs as the outlandish synoptics currently forming move into the reliable, so to expect constant upgrades would be a miracle so personally I'm not too hung up.

I was actually going to take a break today after yesterday's headaches but so glad I didn't as I would have missed today's excitement. It really is addictive, this hobby of ours 

Edited January 7, 2016 by geordiekev

[lorenzo]

I thought I had already explained the 18z , never mind.

Stick on trend with the ECM - it's busy with the final uppercut to the vortex this evening, so excuse the lack of transfer to the 18z gfs.

Reasons not to be despondent - 

1 AAM is running aat 3.7 this is an insane figure, it has also ran at beyond 3,5 for the lat 4 days, AAM figures are generally averaged over 5 days to provide some sense and sensiblity. Link here no smoke and mirrors or teleconnections dark arts etc http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/research/gwo/gfs_aam.txt

The last few runs way above 3.5, yes these get smoothed on a 5 day average, well look at the last 5 days, insane.

Infact from reload the only year we have even stepping to these figures is 83....

That for a 2015 winter is not our guide, what is our guide is the undoubtable flip in winter mode.

So, the netwx winter forecast said - oh this is due to SSW?

A) Yes, but on what level.

Are You Claiming a success on the regime shift where no technical SSW has occurred?

B) No , well would anyone.

 

Above are 2 questions I feel that must be addressed in regards to our forecast.

a) On the subject of an SSW creating colder conditions - Yes unequivocally this was forecast, where we are at now and the creation from now of an SSW Event is pivotal. What is pertinent is that the Wave Activity over the season created the potential for a SSW event to occur. Our projections for this season were between 07 January and 14 January. What we did not anticipate was the extreme radiative forcing leading to a hugely strong vortex during the December period, this vortex reaching historical means. What we did hold confidence in was the flip in the NH pattern via the El Nino stratospheric pathway, the timing of which we took over the means of SSW events. This year unfolded in a new regime, a regime so new that it created new parameters for the physics of past events to operate in.

1 #The El Nino Southern Oscillation ecllipsed all known records of forcing,

2 The 10 hPa level and 30 hPa level of the stratospheric vortex saw immense cold phases.

Both of these phases were linked loosely to analogs, some of which saw completely opposite phases.

Importantly with or without the stratospheric influence of a technical SSW, the NW winter forecast witness the blocking regime shift we see now in front of us. Yes the tilt east on the ops and ens has teased, the imprint of the NAO pull in january has been in plan since 20th October. Let me state that again, since 15th to 20th October. no hype, no nonsense,

This block has been in play since then, why - 

1 All analogs for Nino years displayed a trend, some were heavily weighted to early season SSW , therefore eschewing the Jan blocking look.

1 These were discarded, and along the way out of the window went some of the best weighted sst anomaly, enso, qbo years.

2 Result - even lesser data set. So, we carried on with the potential evolution of Enso infront of us #October, bearig in mind last year ENSO didnt pull thorugh with the eQBO.

3 Result - less years, composites created, ENSO years tagged, peak ENSO Tagged, PDO Tagged, AMO Tagged, composites built for DFJ across all includung the QBO wave.

4 REsult - we had DJF patterns at H5, 10mb and 30mb

5 Discussion - in a classic Netweather move guess what - we binned them all, all the redaction , all the science, shit- it painted a mad picture, we went with what we thought was good.

Does that make Ed and I forecasters? No.

We have many professional colleagues on twitter who are excellent forecasters and specialists in their regime.

Does that make Ed and I infallable?

No, never, as I have said before re forecasts its only as good as your understanding and what you put into it.

Does that make us brave?

mongoose Yes - and excuse the question and my language here, we had massive boots to fill taking this on and gave it the best shot ever.#

Are we or is Ed, Strat expert?

Yes, regardless of the technical updates or papers quoted, yeah I reckon Ed has the grasp of the strat better than anyone in this modern weather world, and by that I mean UK and USA.

Where does winter go from here?

Edit - apologies couple of bottles of vino slammed, hopefully Ed will be more coherent ! The strat trop disconnect has drove me to Sauvignon Blanc !

My Answer will not please - where do you want it to go, is it an easterly you want, it is a northerly, is it a mild SWrly truth is I dont care. Genuinely.

My interest is in igniting passion for people wanting to learn more about what can affect the UK, what can deliver, what can tempt what can tease, what caxn frustrate, then take that and look at everytrhing we have and go wow - I didnt know x =y.

Polls today said we can all talk about the weather with a wry smile, guess what everyone who has read this, you can do that knowing you are one of the passionate people others wonder about. You are this far - it aint a past time here, it's a passion. Welcome Aboard. X

Edited January 7, 2016 by reef
correcting typo cortex to vortex

[lorenzo]

PS I hope that goes some of the way to explaining as to how the netweather forecast was built.

Simply put we have tried to look at everything.

 

Anything we have missed then shout out, and this goes especially to those on this forum with more knowledge than myself.

Let me know what I have missed or could have done better and will happily adapt, either on here or via PM, dont care, not precious about it shout out X.

.

[Cheshire Freeze]

31 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

I thought I had already explained the 18z , never mind.

Stick on trend with the ECM - it's busy with the final uppercut to the vortex this evening, so excuse the lack of transfer to the 18z gfs.

Reasons not to be despondent - 

1 AAM is running aat 3.7 this is an insane figure, it has also ran at beyond 3,5 for the lat 4 days, AAM figures are generally averaged over 5 days to provide some sense and sensiblity. Link here no smoke and mirrors or teleconnections dark arts etc http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/research/gwo/gfs_aam.txt

The last few runs way above 3.5, yes these get smoothed on a 5 day average, well look at the last 5 days, insane.

Infact from reload the only year we have even stepping to these figures is 83....

That for a 2015 winter is not our guide, what is our guide is the undoubtable flip in winter mode.

So, the netwx winter forecast said - oh this is due to SSW?

A) Yes, but on what level.

Are You Claiming a success on the regime shift where no technical SSW has occurred?

B) No , well would anyone.

 

Above are 2 questions I feel that must be addressed in regards to our forecast.

a) On the subject of an SSW creating colder conditions - Yes unequivocally this was forecast, where we are at now and the creation from now of an SSW Event is pivotal. What is pertinent is that the Wave Activity over the season created the potential for a SSW event to occur. Our projections for this season were between 07 January and 14 January. What we did not anticipate was the extreme radiative forcing leading to a hugely strong vortex during the December period, this vortex reaching historical means. What we did hold confidence in was the flip in the NH pattern via the El Nino stratospheric pathway, the timing of which we took over the means of SSW events. This year unfolded in a new regime, a regime so new that it created new parameters for the physics of past events to operate in.

1 #The El Nino Southern Oscillation ecllipsed all known records of forcing,

2 The 10 hPa level and 30 hPa level of the stratospheric vortex saw immense cold phases.

Both of these phases were linked loosely to analogs, some of which saw completely opposite phases.

Importantly with or without the stratospheric influence of a technical SSW, the NW winter forecast witness the blocking regime shift we see now in front of us. Yes the tilt east on the ops and ens has teased, the imprint of the NAO pull in january has been in plan since 20th October. Let me state that again, since 15th to 20th October. no hype, no nonsense,

This block has been in play since then, why - 

1 All analogs for Nino years displayed a trend, some were heavily weighted to early season SSW , therefore eschewing the Jan blocking look.

1 These were discarded, and along the way out of the window went some of the best weighted sst anomaly, enso, qbo years.

2 Result - even lesser data set. So, we carried on with the potential evolution of Enso infront of us #October, bearig in mind last year ENSO didnt pull thorugh with the eQBO.

3 Result - less years, composites created, ENSO years tagged, peak ENSO Tagged, PDO Tagged, AMO Tagged, composites built for DFJ across all includung the QBO wave.

4 REsult - we had DJF patterns at H5, 10mb and 30mb

5 Discussion - in a classic Netweather move guess what - we binned them all, all the redaction , all the science, super duper- it painted a mad picture, we went with what we thought was good.

Does that make Ed and I forecasters? No.

We have many professional colleagues on twitter who are excellent forecasters and specialists in their regime.

Does that make Ed and I infallable?

No, never, as I have said before re forecasts its only as good as your understanding and what you put into it.

Does that make us brave?

mongoose Yes - and excuse the question and my language here, we had massive boots to fill taking this on and gave it the best shot ever.#

Are we or is Ed, Strat expert?

Yes, regardless of the technical updates or papers quoted, yeah I reckon Ed has the grasp of the strat better than anyone in this modern weather world, and by that I mean UK and USA.

Where does winter go from here?

My Answer will not please - where do you want it to go, is it an easterly you want, it is a northerly, is it a mild SWrly truth is I dont care. Genuinely.

My interest is in igniting passion for people wanting to learn more about what can affect the UK, what can deliver, what can tempt what can tease, what caxn frustrate, then take that and look at everytrhing we have and go wow - I didnt know x =y.

Polls today said we can all talk about the weather with a wry smile, guess what everyone who has read this, you can do that knowing you are one of the passionate people others wonder about. You are this far - it aint a past time here, it's a passion. Welcome Aboard. X

Wow, where did that come from? Loved that as a read but you're going to get a rollocking in the morning with that language!

[geordiekev]

13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Wow, where did that come from? Loved that as a read but you're going to get a rollocking in the morning with that language!

Amen, brother, v passionate Lorenzo and thanks for all the hard work of the forecasting team 

I guess as we understand more about the weather above and below, the more of a broth it is to pick the bones out of, so hat's off

[lorenzo]

Delete as applicable team, sorry had some vino ! 

[BM4PM]

44 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

I thought I had already explained the 18z , never mind.

Stick on trend with the ECM - it's busy with the final uppercut to the vortex this evening, so excuse the lack of transfer to the 18z gfs.

Reasons not to be despondent - 

1 AAM is running aat 3.7 this is an insane figure, it has also ran at beyond 3,5 for the lat 4 days, AAM figures are generally averaged over 5 days to provide some sense and sensiblity. Link here no smoke and mirrors or teleconnections dark arts etc http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/research/gwo/gfs_aam.txt

The last few runs way above 3.5, yes these get smoothed on a 5 day average, well look at the last 5 days, insane.

Infact from reload the only year we have even stepping to these figures is 83....

That for a 2015 winter is not our guide, what is our guide is the undoubtable flip in winter mode.

So, the netwx winter forecast said - oh this is due to SSW?

A) Yes, but on what level.

Are You Claiming a success on the regime shift where no technical SSW has occurred?

B) No , well would anyone.

 

Above are 2 questions I feel that must be addressed in regards to our forecast.

a) On the subject of an SSW creating colder conditions - Yes unequivocally this was forecast, where we are at now and the creation from now of an SSW Event is pivotal. What is pertinent is that the Wave Activity over the season created the potential for a SSW event to occur. Our projections for this season were between 07 January and 14 January. What we did not anticipate was the extreme radiative forcing leading to a hugely strong vortex during the December period, this vortex reaching historical means. What we did hold confidence in was the flip in the NH pattern via the El Nino stratospheric pathway, the timing of which we took over the means of SSW events. This year unfolded in a new regime, a regime so new that it created new parameters for the physics of past events to operate in.

1 #The El Nino Southern Oscillation ecllipsed all known records of forcing,

2 The 10 hPa level and 30 hPa level of the stratospheric vortex saw immense cold phases.

Both of these phases were linked loosely to analogs, some of which saw completely opposite phases.

Importantly with or without the stratospheric influence of a technical SSW, the NW winter forecast witness the blocking regime shift we see now in front of us. Yes the tilt east on the ops and ens has teased, the imprint of the NAO pull in january has been in plan since 20th October. Let me state that again, since 15th to 20th October. no hype, no nonsense,

This block has been in play since then, why - 

1 All analogs for Nino years displayed a trend, some were heavily weighted to early season SSW , therefore eschewing the Jan blocking look.

1 These were discarded, and along the way out of the window went some of the best weighted sst anomaly, enso, qbo years.

2 Result - even lesser data set. So, we carried on with the potential evolution of Enso infront of us #October, bearig in mind last year ENSO didnt pull thorugh with the eQBO.

3 Result - less years, composites created, ENSO years tagged, peak ENSO Tagged, PDO Tagged, AMO Tagged, composites built for DFJ across all includung the QBO wave.

4 REsult - we had DJF patterns at H5, 10mb and 30mb

5 Discussion - in a classic Netweather move guess what - we binned them all, all the redaction , all the science, super duper- it painted a mad picture, we went with what we thought was good.

Does that make Ed and I forecasters? No.

We have many professional colleagues on twitter who are excellent forecasters and specialists in their regime.

Does that make Ed and I infallable?

No, never, as I have said before re forecasts its only as good as your understanding and what you put into it.

Does that make us brave?

mongoose Yes - and excuse the question and my language here, we had massive boots to fill taking this on and gave it the best shot ever.#

Are we or is Ed, Strat expert?

Yes, regardless of the technical updates or papers quoted, yeah I reckon Ed has the grasp of the strat better than anyone in this modern weather world, and by that I mean UK and USA.

Where does winter go from here?

Edit - apologies couple of bottles of vino slammed, hopefully Ed will be more coherent ! The strat trop disconnect has drove me to Sauvignon Blanc !

My Answer will not please - where do you want it to go, is it an easterly you want, it is a northerly, is it a mild SWrly truth is I dont care. Genuinely.

My interest is in igniting passion for people wanting to learn more about what can affect the UK, what can deliver, what can tempt what can tease, what caxn frustrate, then take that and look at everytrhing we have and go wow - I didnt know x =y.

Polls today said we can all talk about the weather with a wry smile, guess what everyone who has read this, you can do that knowing you are one of the passionate people others wonder about. You are this far - it aint a past time here, it's a passion. Welcome Aboard. X

Hi, 

Thanks for sharing your thoughts and given a complete novice like myself a insight into how the pros make a forcast. It is very much appriciated as im sure it is by everyone else.

Just a quick question, whats you thoughts on sunspot activity and was this factored into your forcast? 

Somebody mentioned on here that it`s very low at the moment.So i thought i`d ask. 

Ps currently working the nightshift so have one for me will ya  cheers

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not as cold in an absolute case but Atlantic well and truly snookered...

 

[tight isobar]

That's a fairly clean greeny high...

Quietly confident. ...

[Swave Snow]

Need to see more of the run