South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 6th December and Onwards...

[Bristawl Si]

Feels relatively mild here compared to last couple of days of the cool snap.

Grey murky and damp morning. It's 'winter' mornings like this that makes me wish for an early warm Spring.

[A.J]

so then, how has the official 'Slightly less mild than normal spell' been for everyone? 

[TropicThunder]

35 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

??....cold spell?.....I don't recall having a cold spell recently .............I do feel sorry for the forecasters as it's gone a bit pare shaped, the friday forecasts for the weekend went for crystal clear skies, severe overnight frosts leading to a wintry, potentially snowy breakdown on Monday.....instead we got 2 days of absolute grot.....laden skies delivering drizzle, one light frost on friday night and the prospect of a chilly day tomorrow with light to steady rain.....thoroughly depressing stuff for all.....I'm really hoping that we can get some kind of wintryness during february otherwise it'll be the 3rd abysmal winter on the bounce and I'll be counting down the days with eagerness and anticipation for the summer!

Indeed, though it just goes to show how forecasts and expectations can be wrong even at such a short time scale.  In this case it worked against us but it can go the other way as well and you end up with a surprise snowfall! Pretty crappy 'cold spell' for us down here though I agree, just hoping and praying we see something better in February, it is long overdue.

[offerman]

 I notice a lot of comments about the suns strength in February .  On the flipside of the sun been stronger it also adds to bolster any showery activity so any snow showers effectively could be heavier in February than January due to more convection caused by a stronger sun.

 I do remember getting cold winters ( 1980s)and the snow would settle and not melt for days sometimes for a couple of weeks in February so all is not lost February can still give many days of lying snow without flooring as long as the temperatures are cold enough despite the strong sun.

[jethro]

5 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

so then, how has the official 'Slightly less mild than normal spell' been for everyone? 

Better than December. Here we've had 4 sharp frosts, it's definitely been much cooler but best of all, we've actually had blue skies and sunshine. This morning..... well, Fade to Grey springs to mind - fog, drizzle and mild again. Yesterday and last week I could see down my garden and across the fields to Downside Abbey, this morning, back to seeing just the margins of the field behind. If it would just freeze now and turn everything sparkly, I'd be more than happy.

[fromey]

I'm going to say that winter is over, roll on December ( reverse psychology)!!!

[jethro]

3 hours ago, John88B said:

Morning all. Something I copied and pasted for people in our snow starved region about the greatest snowfall I ever witnessed, as a 12 year old lad, at the time living in Pilning, South Glos. The blizzard of Jan 1982.

The greatest disruption occurred on the 8th and 9th when an Atlantic depression moved into the Southwest Approaches; heavy snow accompanied by a gale force easterly wind produced one of the most severe blizzards of the century across southern England, the Midlands, Wales and Ireland. Throughout the snowfall, which lasted over 36 hours, temperatures were between -2 and -4C so the snow was dry and powdery and drifted freely in the wind. Transport services were completely dislocated over a wide area and millions of commuters failed to get to work in London two days running. South Wales was isolated for three days and troops were brought in to deliver essentials and to help clear roads. Worst hit were Gloucestershire, Monmouthshire and Glamorgan, where level snow lay over 60cm deep with drifts 6 metres high. Milder air reached Cornwall and south Devon, but heavy rain falling onto frozen ground in mid-Devon, south Somerset and west Dorset created extensive glazed ice in these areas.

Following the blizzard the cold tightened its grip. Early on the morning of the 10th the temperature fell to -26.1C at Newport in Shropshire, breaking the record for England which had been set just four weeks earlier.

Even at sea level in Pilning the level snow was over my knees with drifts up to 8 feet deep looking like an angry sea of white down the lane I lived in. We were snowed in for a whole week!

I hope this brings back good memories for those old enough to remember it and just remember it can and will happen again with the South West and South Wales being prone to huge snowfalls when the conditions are right for it.

That's the winter which set my benchmark of a brilliant winter. I was still living at home in the Cotswolds where it snowed and snowed, then snowed some more. It had been really snowy before Christmas too, although none fell on the day, we already had deep cover - so deep that in order to fulfil our Young Farmers round of carol singing at various venues on Christmas Eve, we had to ski. Coming out of midnight mass in Great Tew was surreal, a real alpine scene with dozens of pairs of ski's propped up against the church. When January came the drifts were way above my head, nowt but tractors getting through and digging sheep out for days on end.

Heavenly!

[khodds]

 and now I'm feeling even more depressed. I don't think we will ever witness anything like those classic winters again. Why is everything so much more marginal these days?! 

[Ali1977]

I wonder if MOGREPS is still forecasting 1cm + snow tomorrow for the SW as Ian F said yesterday. Doesn't seem to show any other models.

[kumquat]

IT'S NOWING IN BRISTOL

Oh well. On to February

We all know what follows this......Right.......

[MP-R]

I just want to know when this wretched drizzle is going to stop. Need to go into town but not while it's doing this!

Edited January 17, 2016 by MP-R

[Rich_Clements]

Morning all,

 

Back to normal then, I did see a few flakes whilst driving on the Northleach bypass last night I reckon that will be it for me this winter 

[jethro]

4 minutes ago, khodds said:

 and now I'm feeling even more depressed. I don't think we will ever witness anything like those classic winters again. Why is everything so much more marginal these days?! 

Chin up. We will see them again and I think down here, we'll get some classic battleground dumpings in the not too distant future.

 

I know the world has warmed but that's not the be all and end all for winter weather here - look North, regardless of a warmer world, it's still blinking cold up there and in Eastern Europe. Studies show that periods of low solar activity make it much more likely that that cold will flood south, leading to a much greater chance of colder winters here - not every winter, but certainly much more frequent than we've been used to.  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8615789.stm

 

Virtually every solar scientist, including NASA have concluded we're very likely to be heading into a period of prolonged quiet/low solar activity. In the not too distant future we can look forward to some cold, snowy winters IMO.

[khodds]

I hope you are right Jethro. I loved the winters of 09/10 and was it 12/13? They were amazing. I need more damn it 

[Nights King]

Looks like a cold snap starting Tuesday..

[John88B]

22 minutes ago, jethro said:

Chin up. We will see them again and I think down here, we'll get some classic battleground dumpings in the not too distant future.

 

I know the world has warmed but that's not the be all and end all for winter weather here - look North, regardless of a warmer world, it's still blinking cold up there and in Eastern Europe. Studies show that periods of low solar activity make it much more likely that that cold will flood south, leading to a much greater chance of colder winters here - not every winter, but certainly much more frequent than we've been used to.  http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8615789.stm

 

Virtually every solar scientist, including NASA have concluded we're very likely to be heading into a period of prolonged quiet/low solar activity. In the not too distant future we can look forward to some cold, snowy winters IMO.

 

I agree Jethro. Wasn't it only a couple of years ago we missed out on a channel low that went further south than forecast and dumped a ridiculous amount of snow in Northern France? They'll be many more chances to revisit those heavenly scenes of the winter of 81/82. Some of those chances will be near misses but on a few we'll hit the jackpot!

 

 

[Nights King]

6 minutes ago, John88B said:

 

I agree Jethro. Wasn't it only a couple of years ago we missed out on a channel low that went further south than forecast and dumped a ridiculous amount of snow in Northern France? They'll be many more chances to revisit those heavenly scenes of the winter of 81/82. Some of those chances will be near misses but on a few we'll hit the jackpot!

 

 

Just wish it would hurry up as I might only have another 20 good years left in me to enjoy it 

[John88B]

Just now, Nights King said:

Just wish it would hurry up as I might only have another 20 good years left in me to enjoy it 

Haha me too, I'm not getting any younger!

 

[Summer Sun]

26 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Looks like a cold snap starting Tuesday..

Pretty much follows Ian's tweet

 

 

[jy]

Wet here today,didnt expect anything and was not let down.However heres a thing....in over 60 years,last year was the first that I did not see a single snowflake,in the air on the ground,nowhere. Just beginning to wonder if this Winter might follow suit,lets hope not.

[jethro]

10 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Just wish it would hurry up as I might only have another 20 good years left in me to enjoy it 

Good god man, I've got nigh on 20 years on you and there's no way I'm past enjoying the snow. I fully intend to fit ski's to my zimmer frame when the time comes, studded tires and chains to my mobility scooter too.

[cornish snow]

Dont know about cold,positively Mild now(8.3C) an hour ago.

V still and cloudy. Just come back from the boat,sea like a sheet of glass,gig rower's out practicing,first shoal of lance in the bay,almost spring like. Not long now for here.

Edit, spoke to soon,chucking it down now.

 

Edited January 17, 2016 by cornish snow

[Nights King]

12 minutes ago, jethro said:

Good god man, I've got nigh on 20 years on you and there's no way I'm past enjoying the snow. I fully intend to fit ski's to my zimmer frame when the time comes, studded tires and chains to my mobility scooter too.

I am a single man though so I have a lower life expectancy than a married woman 

It is also my birthday Tuesday so it would be nice to see a couple of flakes even if it came to nothing.

Edited January 17, 2016 by Nights King

[Rich_Clements]

blimmin eck its doom & gloom in here today.

 

 

[MartUK]

Happy BIrthday for Tuesday Nk - 

When you are married and peev the married women off - lookout  Nowhere to run or hide  

Life  expectancy  ummm