Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

[Abyss]

32 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

WZ is down must admit i find the ukmo run disappointing really, way to much punch in the atlantic .

 

Excuse me? Im one of the more optimistic coldies.

There has hardly been anything to be positive about since the turn of November.

Believe me when isee something worth ramping up im the first in the que!!!

And im sorry but im not seeing anything worthy of a ramp in gfs or ukmo this evening.

You said the Atlantic packs too much punch in the ukmo run then when pressed it doesn't you say the ridge will collaspse. The ukmo and ecm are similar at that time frame and its a hell of a lot better than we've been subjected to this winter. Plus the met office outlook mentions turning colder from the North with snow at times to lower levels . So yea definitely negative nelly for what they're showing. 

Edited January 27, 2016 by -Bomber-

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, -Bomber- said:

The ukmo and ecm are similar at that time frame and its a hell of a lot better than we've been subjected to this winter. Plus the met office outlook mentions turning colder from the North with snow at times to lower levels.

I agree with you, there are reasons to be optimistic about next week, I like the latest met office update and ukmo run and I'm hoping for another very good ecm shortly although I might be viewing it from behind the sofa! 

[nick sussex]

Not sure what the problem is with the UKMO output. Its very close to the ECM 00hrs trend .

I think the models are having difficulties with that weak low in the Atlantic and this is an important feature as to whether it phases with  low heights over Greenland or clears eastwards.

The GFS and UKMO although looking similar at T144hrs are really chalk and cheese because the UKMO has split the PV and has a stronger Arctic high.

We await the ECM run, it did manage to have a lot go right in the latter stages of its 00hrs run, lets hope it can replicate that this evening.

 

[Ali1977]

We're still not at the Mid Feb timeframe the METO have mentioned so I still don't expect to see the GFS reflect this - as for the ECM, if next week does end up as it predicted in the 6z then that's just a bonus!! Hopefully same again this evening.

[chris55]

UKMO 144 following this mornings ECM run (now wetter has finally updated the ECM lol)

 

This mornings ECM 00z 144

Tonights UKMO 144

 

 

And after having another look at the 00z ECM on wetter after getting back from work, Im impressed with how good it actually was!!

 

 

Lets hope the ECM 12 continues the theme!!

 

Havent even looked at GFS yet hahaha.

[snowray]

42 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

This doesn't look bad at all from the ukmo 12z with pressure rising in the Atlantic and a nicely aligned scandi trough at T+144 hours which ties in with the met office update today for colder weather to spread southeastwards early next week with wintry showers and snow to lower levels as well as hills. I hope the Ecm 12z builds on the very promising 00z..for coldies I mean.

These charts are screaming out potential to me BUT high Pressure to our South is way, way too stubborn to shift out of the way, and as usual we need to Atlantic to start calming down and quick! If only HP could build around Iceland, even a mini block would do, and it would be game on, but I am dreaming again, oh dear...

[chris55]

3 minutes ago, snowray said:

These charts are screaming out potential to me BUT high Pressure to our South is way, way too stubborn to shift out of the way, and as usual we need to Atlantic to start calming down and quick! If only HP could build around Iceland, even a mini block would do, and it would be game on, but I am dreaming again, oh dear...

Well you are obviously dreaming of the 00z ECM lol, lets wait and see what the 12z throws up

 

[snowray]

9 minutes ago, chris55 said:

MWell you are obviously dreaming of the 00z ECM lol, lets wait and see what the 12z throws up

 

Yes Chris thats more like it, all eyes on the ECM then which is just starting to roll out.

May not be just a dream after all.

[Daniel*]

Not a whole lot different at 120 although more blocked over the pole.  

[nick sussex]

The weak Atlantic low has cleared eastwards and a separate lobe of high pressure between it and the upstream troughing on the ECM at T144hrs. Phew that's a relief!

OMG T168hrs winter storm on the ECM !

Amplified upstream trough on the ECM at T168hrs, so far so good.

Edited January 27, 2016 by nick sussex

[snowray]

Blinding!

[Nick L]

Good grief, +168 and +174 on the ECM would deliver a hell of a lot of snow on the northern edge of that low in Wales and the N Midlands. Pity there's next to no chance of it coming off like that!

[Daniel*]

Considerable snow risk 

on 168 colder air undercutting...

[Nick L]

Just for fun...(this is not necessarily snow depth)

 

[BarnetBlizzard]

Another upgrade on the ECM..... 

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Good grief, +168 and +174 on the ECM would deliver a hell of a lot of snow on the northern edge of that low in Wales and the N Midlands. Pity there's next to no chance of it coming off like that!

Take that east coast of the USA! lol Of course at this range even if these synoptics verify the track is likely to change but certainly so far the ECM looks very similar to this mornings output.

[snowray]

Lovely ridge there towards Iceland, wow!

This is turning into an excellent run, cold air now firmly entrenched over the whole country.

Edited January 27, 2016 by snowray

[Purga]

ECM 168hrs looks promising

We could do with the Low exiting Newfoundland to head North but I fear it will probably break through to the south of Greenland,

Well if the Low heads far enough South ....

 

 

Edited January 27, 2016 by Purga

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Good grief, +168 and +174 on the ECM would deliver a hell of a lot of snow on the northern edge of that low in Wales and the N Midlands. Pity there's next to no chance of it coming off like that!

Nice, Arctic air digging south 

[Ali1977]

Please tell me this ECM is correct 

[northwestsnow]

Well ecm is certainly worthy of weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee pamp

Lovely run out to 168 nothing like gfs so thats a bonus..

[nick sussex]

Negatively tilted troughing, pressure rising to the n/nw. Only one outcome from here, mild weather take a hike!

[SLEETY]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Please tell me this ECM is correct 

if it was mild showing than yes,but cold,think we all know the answer to that,however its similar to its last run,so maybe it has spotted a new cold trend,we live in hope.

Edited January 27, 2016 by SLEETY

[Bristawl Si]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Please tell me this ECM is correct 

Hope not Ali.

About another 100/150 miles south please.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Hope not Ali.

About another 100/150 miles south please.

Ha, true ...always room for upgrades