Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

[joggs]

I honestly think we're in for upgrades for a fair while to come also.The GFS does tend to overdo the Atlantic and with background signals not pointing to total mild dross(mjo,amplification,main vortex slowly transverse ne with time)This to me points to upgrades re cold and also backed by mo mid month onwards but I can see it coming to the fro quicker.

[Frosty.]

There is no shortage of transient rather cold incursions on the Gfs 12z op run, especially further north with some snow at times and night frosts, it's more wintry than the 6z. I think it's encouraging!

[booferking]

23 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

The GFS is currently second only to the Euro at T144 with the UKMO in 3rd. 

The parallel is slightly better still (which is what you would hope).

 

 

Yep iv notice UKMO has been trailing for a while now, even the cold spell for this Saturday it had wrong Yesterday it was going for a 2 day spell while ECM GFS was going for 1 day,  and now tonight it flips to 1 day 96hr-120hr was meant to be reasonably reliable not anymore.

 

And anything that it show at 144hr i will be taking with pinch of salt not unless it has support from the other 2 models as they have been leading the way for sometime now.

Edited January 26, 2016 by booferking

[Captain Shortwave]

To me it looks likely that a very westerly dominated pattern will continue until the second week of February where in which time we may start to see things change for the better.

That said in the 10 day range there are a few PM bursts which could deliver some transient snow to low levels, especially in the north and west, this coming weekend being an example.

The continuing presence of above normal heights over a large part of southern Europe will hinder the southwards progress of the cold air with the far south struggling to see much of this cool and clearer airmass as further fronts push in late on Saturday to bring a wet Sunday before the milder air wins out again.

This see-saw of mild and cooler will likely continue to around the second week of February where finally we may see some factors favouring a colder pattern. First off the second strong strat warming looks to potentially shift around to the Canadian side potentially pushing the strat vortex back into Europe.

GEFs

          

At the same time we see potentially an uptake in the MJO signal which again suggests better times ahead with the signal.

     

UKMO takes us into Phase 4 and likely into phase 5 by the end of its short range. The ECM monthly takes the signal through to phase 7 as we head through the first half of February.

This correlates to a few shoots of hope in the GEF ensemble suite.

          

There is a clear movement to position heights further west towards the Azores with occasional ridging northwards. The signal to develop low Euro heights remain weak at the moment but given the GFS has had issues picking up certain signals then there is a chance that we may see something more robust develop over the coming days. One to watch but at this point any cold will probably come from the north or north west with a ridge to our west and a strengthening Euro trough in time as we move into the second week of February.

[snowray]

There was a time when charts like this one, during Winter, would produce a decent North Westerly or Northerly at least once in a while...

Edited January 26, 2016 by snowray

[Nouska]

45 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yep iv notice UKMO has been trailing for a while now, even the cold spell for this Saturday it had wrong Yesterday it was going for a 2 day spell while ECM GFS was going for 1 day,  and now tonight it flips to 1 day 96hr-120hr was meant to be reasonably reliable not anymore.

 

And anything that it show at 144hr i will be taking with pinch of salt not unless it has support from the other 2 models as they have been leading the way for sometime now.

It takes ages for the European stats to update but online now for last month - UKMO not so good at 144.

Lowest is best ....

The ECM monthly update - Thanks to @fergieweatherfor showing his version of the MJO but will include the NOAA version for graphic continuity. It shows a progression similar to March of last year - if you remember, there was a wail of right phase ....just as winter was over!

  last March

Oops  - Captain beat me to it but will leave as alongside the other archive one.

Edited January 26, 2016 by Nouska

[Blake]

Chinese at D10... interesting. Wonder if as the low edges E/SE we may get blocking to the west in behind linking up with GL and the low stalling and sinking S/SE coming up against HP to east... FI of course but something to tease us.

 

Edited January 26, 2016 by GUWeather
Double image post

[Cloud 10]

Nice broad shove of cold air incoming on the ECM at 168 hrs.

 

Arctic high having a nose around as well.

 

[Frosty.]

Casting the net out further, the GEFS 12z perturbations show some wintry potential and I expect we will see a lot more peachy charts soon if the met office continue to firm up on the idea of a mid Atlantic ridge. There are quite a few cold shots, albeit short lived but I expect things to improve in terms of depth and longevity of cold as we go further into February...I'm not throwing in the towel!

[nick sussex]

My cold optimism rating has risen sharply after crashing to 0.5/10 a few days back. We're upto 4/10 now after the trends from this evenings outputs so far. The ECM looks interesting at T192hrs, that lobe of the PV gets thrown westwards finally clearing a route for high pressure to ridge into the north of Greenland.

[bradymk]

If there wasn't so much energy left around Greenland after the main part of the vortex moves east, we could be seeing some much better charts at day 8/9. 

[Weathizard]

Risidual vortex energy over eastern Canada & Greenland kindly please take yourself off to the nearest incinerator and do the right thing!

Some more interesting runs today, and given more high pressure around the pole I wouldn't trust much in the models at the moment as it causes carnage, hopefully we can start to see some stonkers in amongst the ensembles soon as the models begin to sniff a change.

Edited January 26, 2016 by Weathizard

[northwestsnow]

Watching that ecm run its getting really frustrating again every time we think there is hope for some atlantic ridging along comes ANOTHER low out of canada flattening things out.

EDIT although the godforsaken euro high has evaporated at 216

Edited January 26, 2016 by northwestsnow

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Risidual vortex energy over eastern Canada & Greenland kindly please take yourself off to the nearest incinerator and do the right thing!

Some more interesting runs today, and given more high pressure around the pole I wouldn't trust much in the models at the moment as it causes carnage, hopefully we can start to see some stonkers in amongst the ensembles soon as the models begin to sniff a change.

You said that a lot more nicer than the choice words I would have liked to use! lol

The ECM T216hrs is quite an unusual looking set up, the low dropping se from near Greenland.

[phil nw.]

Indeed all the model runs show we don't require much ridging to see uppers of -6 to -8C coming into the UK.There's a lot of cold so close just to our north. 

The frustrating thing is because the pattern is so mobile each injection of colder air get's swept away after 24/36hrs.This happens a number of times through the model runs this evening.If we look at the charts when the cold pm air cuts in we see freezing levels drop by around 1500mtrs further north so that snow could well fall to quite low heights over Scotland at times.

A very strong westerly pattern through the next 10 days with gales as well as rain featuring quite a lot i would think.

[nick sussex]

There are some good points and bad points from tonights outputs.

Good:

Arctic high

Azores high displacing

Colder air at times

Bad:

The left over PV lobes in ne Canada/West Greenland

The PV is likely to want to transfer further west again

 

Best output of the evening:

The ECM

The media hype section:

The USA had their snowstorm  the UK wants its!

Given the complexities of the ECM output later on its going to be hard to replicate a similar set up however the low at 216hrs which drops se from Greenland is of interest, if that was sharper then this could draw a more se flow in ahead of it and it could slip se delivering the UK's own snow drama! This of course is well into the future and the upstream pattern would need to be more amplified so this is just me having a bit of fun!  But why should the east coast of the USA always be grabbing the headlines!

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z shows some wintry weather at times, especially across Scotland but further south too for a time next week, speaking as a coldie, it could be a lot worse...Indeed it has been a lot worse, December floods and blow torch, need I say more..a least we would get some seasonal weather in the next 10 days and I am looking forward to february, at least the second half!..met office don't let us down, mid atlantic ridge please

[Singularity]

The details are proving as 'difficult' as I had expected for the first week of Feb, but the broad trends that have emerged over the past 72 hours are good.

First is the removal of the Euro high, which has gained significant ground after it first started appearing in GEM det. runs, with ECM close behind. Ensembles were investigating the idea sooner but only in the minority I think.

Second is the move away from redeveloping an area of resilient low heights over Canada, as more of the instability is drawn into the Atlantic instead. As much as this may prevent a clean, quick-fix northerly that delivers down south, it's a big improvement for the longer-term prospects considering that the tropical forcing is likely to become increasingly in favour of keeping low heights from becoming organised to our NW as Feb progresses. Removing the interference from the warm Indian Ocean, it's possible to envision this happening within the first half of the month, much as Captain Shortwave has suggested already this evening 

The UKME mean is the closest to that interference-free scenario as of today. It does seem over the top with the initial development of the MJO signal over the next 24 hours, though!

Looking at the obs it does appear the convection is about to get its act together but will it emerge in 3 or 4? We actually want it to move on to 5 as soon as possible because while we can get a boost to amplification from 4 with a weaker jet, the further we get into Feb, the more it favours the Pacific side for high latitude blocking as opposed to our side.

Except it may not be that simple, as the very strong nature of the El Nino forcing at the moment means the boost to the AAM as a result of this MJO forcing may reach well into phase 5 of the GWO, which is more in favour of high latitude blocking on our side. This is an aspect which the models are likely to struggle with to a particularly great extent. Unfortunately, the GWO plots I rely on have gone AWOL today so I can't check up on how GEFS is doing. Does anyone have an alternative source that's still up and running, by any chance? TIA 

 

[Ali1977]

Slowly slowly catchy monkey...Things are getting better slowly, not a bad days charts today. Let's hope tomorrow we can really get this forum going!!!

[knocker]

8 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

Except it may not be that simple, as the very strong nature of the El Nino forcing at the moment means the boost to the AAM as a result of this MJO forcing may reach well into phase 5 of the GWO, which is more in favour of high latitude blocking on our side. This is an aspect which the models are likely to struggle with to a particularly great extent. Unfortunately, the GWO plots I rely on have gone AWOL today so I can't check up on how GEFS is doing. Does anyone have an alternative source that's still up and running, by any chance? TIA 

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 2h2 hours ago

N. Hem atmospheric angular momentum is forecast to drop into negative values. Hasn't been negative in months.

[Chris1986]

32 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

There are some good points and bad points from tonights outputs.

Good:

Arctic high

Azores high displacing

Colder air at times

Bad:

The left over PV lobes in ne Canada/West Greenland

The PV is likely to want to transfer further west again

 

Best output of the evening:

The ECM

The media hype section:

The USA had their snowstorm  the UK wants its!

Given the complexities of the ECM output later on its going to be hard to replicate a similar set up however the low at 216hrs which drops se from Greenland is of interest, if that was sharper then this could draw a more se flow in ahead of it and it could slip se delivering the UK's own snow drama! This of course is well into the future and the upstream pattern would need to be more amplified so this is just me having a bit of fun!  But why should the east coast of the USA always be grabbing the headlines!

Models are notoriously bad at handling laying snow altering boundary layer temps. Hopefully one big dose could change outputs from what could have been to what is!!  

 

Edited January 26, 2016 by Chris1986

[West is Best]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Slowly slowly catchy monkey...Things are getting better slowly, not a bad days charts today. Let's hope tomorrow we can really get this forum going!!!

 

Just looks like a relentless Atlantic assault to me?

[Ali1977]

10 minutes ago, West is Best said:

 

Just looks like a relentless Atlantic assault to me?

I've got a PhD in optimism , I'm telling you - things are getting better for mid month..

[Singularity]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 2h2 hours ago

N. Hem atmospheric angular momentum is forecast to drop into negative values. Hasn't been negative in months.

Thanks for posting that. It really has fallen quite a way from the high state of mid-month, which is why we have had so much westerly momentum to deal with since the cold snap and continue to face such things for a week or so longer.

Still waiting for the kick to 5/6 to appear but given what GEFS is doing with the MJO that's not surprising. 

I'm now trying to comprehend what an outcome like UKME has for the MJO would do. I suppose the downward trend would cease before it left phase 8 and then it would shoot right over to 5, more like if you connected the GEFS point for 30th Jan with the past observations from 18th to 28th Dec but without that stall in between.

[Daniel*]

RIP Euro slug always a good foretelling for cold prospects in the UK to see heights drop to the S/SE. PV is looking distressed like a beached whale on Eurasia side, its nasty days are over.