Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

[Nick F]

Extended 12z EPS mean to my eye showing increasing amplification from day 10 over N America then crucially N Atlantic by day 15, with a +height anomaly SE of New Foundland and a deepening -ve anomaly over the UK ... actually quite a big -ve height departure for 15 days out. So this may be hints of a greater chance of Nly shots toward 9th Feb.

The 12z EPS control looks increasingly amplified too by day 13, with a  northerly around then. Be interesting to see what the EC32 offers when it updates later tonight.

 

Edited January 25, 2016 by Nick F

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016012518/gfs-0-132.png?18

 

Looking more pronged for another NW to N assault compared to 12z.   GFS on 1st Feb looks like ECM on 1st Feb.   Good, that'll d for now as long as we see consolidation in coming days.

 

BFTP 

Edited January 25, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Derbyshire Snow]

No change so far this evenings run. Zonality as expected  as strong as  ever. i compare the present synoptics to a boxing match. In one corner we have the favourite a strong El Nino with a positive NAO- in the other corner the hopeful contender a SSW- who will win.

[Jason M]

Same old problem. Whilst that giant area of high pressure remains to our south there is pretty much zero chance of anything notable. Shift that and the outlook changes. 

 

 

 

[Nick F]

29 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

ECM monthly MJO forecast heading into phase 7 in the last third of February.

Today's MOGREPS ensemble system heading on the right track, but the other models the movement is too incoherent.

ECM has been top dog with the MJO forecasts so far this winter, so would like to see it come round to a more coherent signal and out of the warm phases of 4 and 5 before committing to the MJO driving a possible change in pattern.

 

 

[Derbyshire Snow]

6 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Same old problem. Whilst that giant area of high pressure remains to our south there is pretty much zero chance of anything notable. Shift that and the outlook changes. 

 

 

 

Its very difficult to see how this huge high is going to be moved with the present teleconnections. It will eventually. To be honest i am looking for glimmers of hope to shift it but its not easy.We are just not getting a break in the jet stream to allow a true northerly plunge enought to displace that high. PV set in concrete

Edited January 25, 2016 by Derbyshire Snow

[Ali1977]

Full of potential. PV moved to Siberia, Arctic high forming...

[Derbyshire Snow]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Full of potential. PV moved to Siberia, Arctic high forming...

Interesting  but i think jet stream just too strong. Lets see end of this run. Arctic high is good if it can find a gap to head south

Edited January 25, 2016 by Derbyshire Snow

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, Derbyshire Snow said:

Its very difficult to see how this huge high is going to be moved with the present teleconnections. It will eventually. To be honest i am looking for glimmers of hope to shift it but its not easy.We are just not getting a break in the jet stream to allow a true northerly plunge enought to displace that high

If anyone can, the pub run can. 

[Argyle1980]

The only plus from the 18z is that the energy is slowly moving away from our west.

baby steps but steps in the right direction .

[Argyle1980]

Just want to see more of that PV shift to our east to allow some ridging sucking the high to our south up towards Greenland and to meet up with that polar high.

its a little bit of positivity .

[Derbyshire Snow]

26 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

If anyone can, the pub run can. 

needs a lorry  load of salt on that slug

Edited January 25, 2016 by Derbyshire Snow

[Derbyshire Snow]

energy if its possible is even stronger leaving the US at t252, thats not good at all. Good thing its only one run and a bad one

Edited January 25, 2016 by Derbyshire Snow

[booferking]

8 minutes ago, Derbyshire Snow said:

energy if its possible is even stronger leaving the US at t252, thats not good at all. Good thing its only one run and a bad one

Its a good job that it is away in fairy land were the make believe happens and the unicorns run wild. 

Edited January 25, 2016 by booferking

[Derbyshire Snow]

the Atlantic is in turmoil at the end of the run. Lows everywhere and only one high and guess where that is

 

but to add a touch of positivity deep in FI a split is about to develop in the jet stream over US, may be jet stream might push south. But it is all in la la  land

Edited January 25, 2016 by Derbyshire Snow

[wishingforsnow]

A split jet stream has been hinted in long term forecasts recently. Lets see if it materialises.

[karlos1983]

What news on the ec32? I presuming not good? Given lack of any comment 

[Ali1977]

hopefully the EC32 isn't the same..What I have noticed is that we have some interesting FI ensembles turning up.

If you run member 5 through that is good from 192 with country wide snow from 192 to 384 pretty much....If only that would have been the op, this place would be in melt down.

Edited January 26, 2016 by Ali1977

[Nick F]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

What news on the ec32? I presuming not good? Given lack of any comment 

Large -ve height anomaly over NE Atlantic and the U.K. through much of the run. Aleutian low anomaly, west Canadian ridge, eastern US trough also dominate again after day 10 after a temporary reversal to western U.S trough / Eastern U.S. ridge. There is +heights over the Arctic though for much of the run. But the general theme looks unsettled through much of Feb.

The EC32 850mb temp anomalies suggest -ve departures over much of the N Atlantic and into the UK at times through much of the run though, so it's not particularly mild for us.

 

Edited January 26, 2016 by Nick F

[bluearmy]

Just beginning to sense some interest for coldies (away from elevation and Scotland) in a couple weeks time.  Could be pretty wild though. 

[Ali1977]

13 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Large -ve height anomaly over NE Atlantic and the U.K. through much of the run. Aleutian low anomaly, west Canadian ridge, eastern US trough also dominate again after day 10 after a temporary reversal to western U.S trough / Eastern U.S. ridge. There is +heights over the Arctic though for much of the run. But the general theme looks unsettled through much of Feb.

The EC32 850mb temp anomalies suggest -ve departures over much of the N Atlantic and into the UK at times through much of the run though, so it's not particularly mild for us.

 

Sounds like this wouldn't take much tweaking to be much better for the UK, just need enough WAA at some point to link in with the heights over the Arctic, this is easier said than done in a winter with a stronger jet stream however.

ECM looking good at day 10

Edited January 26, 2016 by Ali1977

[phil nw.]

All modeling this morning continue with a strong westerly setup.

Whilst a large chunk of the PV is spread across the Atlantic side of the pole we are reliant on transient cooler shots from the north west.

[Polar Maritime]

15 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

All modeling this morning continue with a strong westerly setup.

Whilst a large chunk of the PV is spread across the Atlantic side of the pole we are reliant on transient cooler shots from the north west.

Yes Phil, Seems to be the running trend of late with cold Pm shots from the N/W giving a wintry mix at times especially for the North & elevated areas. With some big dumpings expected in the Highlands in these set-ups.

 

Saturday is still looking cold/wintry with gales in the North and the snow risk extending to the North Midlands.

Edited January 26, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[mb018538]

Nothing much to add this morning, other than it looks drab out until 240 again with alternating mild and cold interludes from a westerly quadrant. Looks like we've only got 3 weeks of winter left to salvage anything!

[terrier]

Another pretty drab output again this morning from the models with a westerly pattern across the output. Not a great update from the ec32 day output. Yes the gfs and ecm do show some short lived polar maritime shots but doesn't really cut it for mid winter.