Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

[Timmytour]

Thinking about my son going skiing in Austria with his school now.   First time ever. The snow forecast from Feb 12 forward looks great......just wondering what model the forecast Accuweather are using their extended forecast is coming from?  

[wishingforsnow]

And the Met Office are still thinking a mid Atlantic ridge may develop mid February bringing colder conditions. Which now has started to gain support from the BBC so their long range models must be seeing something we can't...yet

Edited January 25, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Peter H]

1 hour ago, wishingforsnow said:

And the Met Office are still thinking a mid Atlantic ridge may develop mid February bringing colder conditions. Which now has started to gain support from the BBC so their long range models must be seeing something we can't...yet

Yep, BBC monthly outlook also running with the possibility of much colder weather mid February.

Nothing at all on the latest model runs which go up until the 10th February now, other than a brief toppling high.

[winterof79]

Hi Resolution only takes us to the 4th of February so we've no chance of using GFS as a pointer.

METO and Teleconnections next best for Further in to Feb.

I do like the look of a potent encounter/flirtation with Arctic air this coming weekend.

[fergieweather]

18 minutes ago, Peter H said:

Yep, BBC monthly outlook also running with the possibility of much colder weather mid February.

Nothing at all on the latest model runs which go up until the 10th February now, other than a brief toppling high.

Just to stress that the exact phrasing we used on the web outlook is for signs of "something colder" (ie relative to earlier Feb).... not "much colder", which has very different connotations. That's not to rule out the latter, but it's the not meaning intended in the current forecast.

This possible shift in emphasis remains based on a combination of signals from GloSea5 and last Thurs' EC Monthly. Whilst both lean towards either neutral or -ve temp anomalies after mid-month, GloSea5 has shown some waxing and waning re strength/likelihood of Atlantic ridging, but this (at present) remains the more favoured possibility. We await today's prognosis from that suite but equally, whatever the next EC Monthly update produces later this evening. The next 3-monthly summary for contingency planners (from UKMO Seasonal Team) will reflect GloSea5 probabilistic output spanning Feb to April.

[wishingforsnow]

29 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Just to stress that the exact phrasing we used on the web outlook is for signs of "something colder" (ie relative to earlier Feb).... not "much colder", which has very different connotations. That's not to rule out the latter, but it's the not meaning intended in the current forecast.

This possible shift in emphasis remains based on a combination of signals from GloSea5 and last Thurs' EC Monthly. Whilst both lean towards either neutral or -ve temp anomalies after mid-month, GloSea5 has shown some waxing and waning re strength/likelihood of Atlantic ridging, but this (at present) remains the more favoured possibility. We await today's prognosis from that suite but equally, whatever the next EC Monthly update produces later this evening. The next 3-monthly summary for contingency planners (from UKMO Seasonal Team) will reflect GloSea5 probabilistic output spanning Feb to April.

Interesting update 

I agree, it is definitely still too early to tell what exactly is going to happen in a month's time re if/what colder conditions could arrive to our shores again and how much colder. Though its good to see that an Atlantic ridge remains a favoured option at present

Edited January 25, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Tony Beets]

47 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Hi Resolution only takes us to the 4th of February so we've no chance of using GFS as a pointer.

METO and Teleconnections next best for Further in to Feb.

I do like the look of a potent encounter/flirtation with Arctic air this coming weekend.

I agree, with plenty of precipitation probable and the cold air digging in some could see a nice wet snow event. Would be nice to see some 50p size flakes again.

wouldnt last long tho.

Edited January 25, 2016 by Tony Beets

[karlos1983]

I've been out of the loop for a few days, Has Tamara or GP given any update recently, or has our Torpedo been buried by snow in NE USA? All I can see in the Models over the past couple of GFS runs, is the persistence of the Euro Heights, which is really bad news for coldies.  

[Singularity]

Signs of organisation in the western Pacific in the last few frames but difficult to ascertain the K-wave type pattern. Will it, won't it...!

GEFS continues to be in the 'sort of, but not really' camp which means it's seeing nothing much to shake up the pattern for the foreseeable, just a bit of a nudge this way or that as the strat. vortex moves about.

UKMO continues to go for a rapid initiation but has proven too hasty over the past 24 hours. ECM seems fairly set on things starting off in 3-4 days time but beyond that the pace is up in the air.

 

There's little else to be said about the longer range prospects for now. Until the MJO initialisation is resolved, model output beyond a week's range should not be trusted whichever way it goes. 

So the best solution is to focus on the shorter-term weather threats which are a lot of rain in some places and some strong winds at times too.

Tomorrow sees a fairly standard frontal system arriving from the west with wind gusts perhaps as high as 60 mph affecting N. England northward for a time, but tomorrow night through Wednesday could prove a bit of a soaker for the south as that frontal boundary stalls against the Euro High and then develops a slight disturbance which runs along it from SW to NE Wed morning. A heavy batch of rain, with snow over high ground, hits Scotland at the same time based on the 12z GFS.

Beyond that, another 'standard' frontal system seems likely to affect most parts sometime Thursday, followed by what could be very strong winds for NW Scotland for a short time on Friday (peak lowland gusts to more than 70 mph perhaps?). As that clears, cold air pushes south, with the risk of another stalled or slow moving frontal boundary affecting the south with some persistent rain for a prolonged period, while to the north a wintry mix of showers may be seen, this mostly snow in Scotland.

This is a summary of the 12z GFS det. run and therefore subject to adjustments to timing and the severity of events. It highlights that the weather looks far from boring - BUT it's something most parts have had more than our fair share of this winter, so it's not at all welcome... except in the case of wet weather fanatics in the south, stormy fanatics in the north.

 

The run is now out to +162 and looking a bit more inclined to shift high pressure into the mid-Atlantic from Europe than the 06z was. This being thanks to the jet stream being toned down a bit, resulting in a slower movement of LP off the U.S. Not sure it will come to much beyond adding a little more polar maritime air to the mix Mon/Tue next week.

Edited January 25, 2016 by Singularity

[nick sussex]

In terms of the possible PM flow at the weekend, the GFS shortens this but its overall NH profile upto T168hrs is better in terms of cold going forward .

The UKMO has the PM flow likely to last a bit longer and looks colder upto T120hrs.

[Singularity]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

In terms of the possible PM flow at the weekend, the GFS shortens this but its overall NH profile upto T168hrs is better in terms of cold going forward .

The UKMO has the PM flow likely to last a bit longer and looks colder upto T120hrs.

Hi Nick,

I've just spotted that UKMO, having already been slower with the low traversing Canada, has a shortwave developing over the Central U.S., which has reminded me of when you were discussing a similar setup occurring with respect to our cold snap of last week. Back then it was a low forming just north of the GOM so very similar. So I'm wondering, as the shortwave guru, what you make of the potential for such a development to hold the lower heights over Canada back further west with a ridge downstream?

Cheers

[Singularity]

Meanwhile, the potential 'breaker' low is there again on the GFS 12z at +192. This is the feature, with a decent ridge ahead of it, that could mark the break in the jet needed to get more of a mid-Atlantic ridge in place - and one that reaches poleward.

The 00z made some effort with that but the 06z just powered it NE. The 12z has a better bridge of HP that could prevent that motion with any luck:

12z:   06z: 

[Rocheydub]

Hello GFS. What are you doing with our high pressure as you go into low res.... Pushing it up north, are we?

 

[nick sussex]

11 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Hi Nick,

I've just spotted that UKMO, having already been slower with the low traversing Canada, has a shortwave developing over the Central U.S., which has reminded me of when you were discussing a similar setup occurring with respect to our cold snap of last week. Back then it was a low forming just north of the GOM so very similar. So I'm wondering, as the shortwave guru, what you make of the potential for such a development to hold the lower heights over Canada back further west with a ridge downstream?

Cheers

Hi whats GOM? lol Its okay I worked it out now, Gulf of Mexico!

Yes there are some big differences between the GFS/UKMO upstream at T144hrs. These north/south stream interactions always cause problems. I think if that phases and responds to the more amplified ridge in the east Pacific this might allow a ridge ahead.

The UKMO though does complicate things somewhat with that weak low east of Newfoundland at T144hrs.

Edited January 25, 2016 by nick sussex

[Rocheydub]

It goes on to flatten it in deep FI, but I was interested for a short while there. It's a plausible evolution to my eyes anyway! #wishfulthinking

[MR EXTREMES]

Really need the heights lower to our south and higher to our north.

i really don't see anything else remotely interesting in any of the out puts as has been modeled for few days now is a strong pv dominating across the northern hemisphere residual vortex Canada Greenland into Scandinavia.

its not going to be our lucky year and these bloody illnesses flying around with the mild wet windy crap is driving me potty.

pv and euro slug another winter goes down in history for different reasons 

[Singularity]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Hi whats GOM? lol

Yes there are some big differences between the GFS/UKMO upstream at T144hrs. These north/south stream interactions always cause problems. I think if that phases and responds to the more amplified ridge in the east Pacific this might allow a ridge ahead.

The UKMO though does complicate things somewhat with that weak low east of Newfoundland at T144hrs.

Gulf of Mexico 

Yes that low by Newfoundland is a bit of a departure from the rest of the pack. The other models tend to race it across to the UK and UKMO is either going to do that a day later or have the low drift about in which case it either interferes with the ridge or causes more of a cut-off feature.

 

Just looked at GEM (below-left). Sort of, but not really... and that bomb over Newfoundland is unhelpful. Meanwhile GFS (below-right) has got to a point where that low over the U.S. makes all the difference going forward.

 

 

Tricky times. So much seems to be hanging on a propagating MJO - amplification in phase 4 without quick propagation to 5 is less likely to achieve what we want to see.

From ECM tonight I at least want to see the Euro high retreating to the Azores as per GEM.

 

Now out to +252 and I think GFS is going to be an ass again on this run 

[Peter H]

Simon Keeling doesn't appear as optimistic as he was a couple of days ago. Going for a few days of colder weather mid February (possible easterly ?) and then it breaks down again in the latter stages of the month:

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z gives us several reloads of polar maritime throughout the run with wintry ppn and night frosts at times, much better than constant mild we had in December so at least there is something to keep coldies interested until we hopefully see a marked pattern change to significantly more wintry weather through the second half of February which is still being mentioned by the experts.. : )

[booferking]

Sure Tomasz Schafernaker was saying easterly for this week in his outlook last week i don,t know why they do this on tv with millions watching when they dont have the foggiest whats going to happen every-time they mention the word cold it goes pear shape every-time.

Much rather the UKMO for short term cold for this weekend it looks colder and lasts longer, GFS still has the high to close at least the UKMO has it further South so more chance for us all to see snow maybe.

 

[Summer Sun]

8 minutes ago, booferking said:

Sure Tomasz Schafernaker was saying easterly for this week in his outlook last week i don,t know why they do this on tv with millions watching when they dont have the foggiest whats going to happen every-time they mention the word cold it goes pear shape every-time.

Much rather the UKMO for short term cold for this weekend it looks colder and lasts longer, GFS still has the high to close at least the UKMO has it further South so more chance for us all to see snow maybe.

 

This was answered by @fergieweather last week I'll repost his reply below

Quote

Correct: blown out of proportion and misinterpreted. Tom was simply highlighting potential for colder continental influence lingering to E and remaining a 'spoiler' to W'ward progression/providing further battleground focus. He wasn't suggesting an Easterly per se and no indication of such presently exists in UKMO model assessments. Hope that clarifies.

 

 

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, booferking said:

Sure Tomasz Schafernaker was saying easterly for this week in his outlook last week i don,t know why they do this on tv with millions watching when they dont have the foggiest whats going to happen every-time they mention the word cold it goes pear shape every-time.

Much rather the UKMO for short term cold for this weekend it looks colder and lasts longer, GFS still has the high to close at least the UKMO has it further South so more chance for us all to see snow maybe.

 

No he wasn't - he was merely suggested it was an option...albeit an unlikely one.

[hooch5]

17 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z gives us several reloads of polar maritime throughout the run with wintry ppn and night frosts at times, much better than constant mild we had in December so at least there is something to keep coldies interested until we hopefully see a marked pattern change to significantly more wintry weather through the second half of February which is still being mentioned by the experts.. : )

Well done Frosty, defo keeping the spirits up on this forum

[bobbydog]

12 minutes ago, booferking said:

Sure Tomasz Schafernaker was saying easterly for this week in his outlook last week i don,t know why they do this on tv with millions watching when they dont have the foggiest whats going to happen every-time they mention the word cold it goes pear shape every-time.

Much rather the UKMO for short term cold for this weekend it looks colder and lasts longer, GFS still has the high to close at least the UKMO has it further South so more chance for us all to see snow maybe.

 

he didnt say there would be an easterly. this was explained (i thought) quite clearly at the time. he was explaining that the cold pattern at the time may hold on and possibly move back west (hence the arrows on his graphic pointing from the east) 

the problem is not with the BBC forecast but with people hearing the word "cold", seeing some arrows on a TV picture, not listening properly and making the wrong assumption

[Daniel*]

29 minutes ago, Peter H said:

Simon Keeling doesn't appear as optimistic as he was a couple of days ago. Going for a few days of colder weather mid February (possible easterly ?) and then it breaks down again in the latter stages of the month:

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

Honestly there are multiple folk in here who are more reliable/provide a superior assessment looking ahead his use of CFS does not give him much credence he is a bit like a yo-yo. I fail to see why he looks for possible breakdowns after all, we have not even reached point A. People show know better, things can change rather suddenly. With warming underway volatile times up above and signs of MJO going to a more amplified phase, this will take some time to filter into the models, the winter's over posts are a lot of drivel putting it politely.