Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

[winterof79]

On a more positive note.

A cold zonal flow looks the likelihood in the foreseeable.There will be surprises for the Midlands north I would say.

[tinybill]

i know  it  is  fantasy world  and it  not  going to happen,  but  our eyes should be on the storm now leaving the other side of the pond   things could get very messy in parts of the  uk  with huge amounts of rain

[Spah1]

1 minute ago, tinybill said:

i know  it  is  fantasy world  and it  not  going to happen,  but  our eyes should be on the storm now leaving the other side of the pond   things could get very messy in parts of the  uk  with huge amounts of rain

Not fantasy world there is a met office warning for next Tuesday and Wednesday. 

[Gustywind]

46 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

On a more positive note.

A cold zonal flow looks the likelihood in the foreseeable.There will be surprises for the Midlands north I would say.

Based on that chart, I'd say Scotland and far north of England only, certainly not the Midlands off a NW flow.

[Mair Snaw]

11 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

Based on that chart, I'd say Scotland and far north of England only, certainly not the Midlands off a NW flow.

Why not ?? we had plenty of snow off of a NW flow last winter.. so i for one dont mind seeing the models showing this kind of set up..

Edited January 24, 2016 by bigsnow

[Paul_1978]

It's worth looking at the Meteociel archive from 22nd Jan 1983 through to mid Feb 1983. 

That might be the kind of situation we see developing? @fergieweather?

Edited January 24, 2016 by Paul_1978

[Gustywind]

Not much away from high ground and what did fall melted quickly. For the vast majority of the U.K. Population those charts are little more than rain, sleet or slush.

[mushymanrob]

21 hours ago, snowking said:

2) The idea that beyond about February 10th any chance of a major cold spell for the UK is gone.

 

..... but the caveat to that being "after a generally mild winter its unlikely" , as statistics prove .  before anyone jumps down my throat here, please READ what i replied to what was quoted!

well the noaa's appear to suggest lowering of pressure north of scandinavia, and although theres no strong ridging to our west (anything will be transitory) just yet, it wouldnt be much of a synoptic shift to produce one - the jet cant blow straight across us for too long can it?
those who predicted a lowering of pressure over scandinavia with a ridge to our west could well be proven right, all it would take is for the jet to buckle or break

meanwhile the noaa 500mb chart (8 - 14 day)  supports the gfs @ day 10

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON SUNDAY JAN 24TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A mild and moist SW flow will cover the UK today with troughs close to the NW leading to rain and drizzle at times clearing slowly SE tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles ranges from 7000ft across NE Scotland today to 10000ft over the rest of the UK with no snowfall expected today.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Changeable and windy weather with rain at times. Generally mild especially at first but some colder spells in the North with wintry showers at times.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream forecast today shows the flow remaining strong or very strong over the next few weeks. It's direction will settle West to East within the next few days, with a very strong core across Scotland gradually turning into a more undulating pattern around 50-55deg North in the second week.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows persistent winds from between SW and NW over the next few weeks with very mild air at first slowly reducing through the coming week as winds veer more Westerly. Rain at times will be commonplace, heavy at times in the North and West. In the second week the pattern remains similar though it may become rather chillier at times with winds veering more NW briefly in the showery periods behind depressions as they move away to the East ahead of the next one arriving soon after. Pressure is shown to remain High to the South throughout.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run today is broadly similar to the Operational Run with a lot of windy and relatively mild weather especially at first with rain and showers at times, Some wintriness in the showers is possible in the North at times and a more definitive trend to colder periods outweighing milder ones develops through the second week with some frosts possible in the South close to high pressure. Then at the end of the run a shift of winds to the North sweeps cold air South to all with wintry showers and frosts at night for many.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DATA  The theme of the GFS Ensemble Clusters this morning are united in maintaining largely Westerly winds across the UK in two weeks time with the majority showing bands of rain crossing West to East under Low pressure near Iceland. Of the rest that show different solutions they just vary the influence of Low pressure and High pressure to the South with some output building High pressure further North across the Atlantic allowing a 40% pack to bring winds from more of a North or North-westerly source with wintry showers for many.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows a very windy working week to come and into next weekend with Westerly gales commonplace with alternating spells of milder conditions with heavy rain followed by colder more showery interludes with snow at times across the North especially towards next weekend.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show Westerly or SW winds as the default pattern across the UK this week with troughs moving East and then SE to often become slow moving near the South with rain and drizzle persistent in the South at times while the North sees colder conditions at times with wintry showers.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning too shows strong Westerly winds across all of the UK for it's duration this morning. The very mild SW flow of very early this week veers more westerly with time and eventually NW for a while bringing colder and more showery conditions when some snow may fall to quite low levels in the North. the pattern remains very fluid though and mild air never looks far away with rain at times on a westerly wind still prevalent even at 10 days.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows a windy but broad mild West or SW flow across the UK across the next 7 days with rain and drizzle at times with some colder more showery conditions across the North at times and rather less wet and windy weather at times in the South where High pressure moves in close by at times. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today looks very mobile with a broad westerly flow across the Atlantic, the UK and Europe bringing successive periods of rain and strong winds and relatively mild weather at times. With time though there is a painfully slow shift of emphasis towards less mild weather as the showery spells between the milder rain bands become more UK wide and although still quite brief some snowfall in the North could be problematic over the highest hills at times. By Day 10 the UK still lies in a Westerly flow with rain at times with a new Low advancing into the UK from the West and NW with rain and then wintry showers likely in the days that follow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows the main vortex of Low pressure having shifted across to Scandinavia with an indication of less Low pressure to the NW and more High pressure down to the SW rather than South. The idea of West or NW winds and rather colder conditions than currently looks very real with sunshine and wintry showers in between brief spells of more prolonged rainfall by this time frame.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models this morning continue to portray the Atlantic under complete control of the UK weather over the next two weeks with a tendency towards slightly less mild conditions with time.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS at 99.5 pts then UKMO at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.2 pts to GFS at 88.6 pts then UKMO at 88.2 pts. Then at 8 Days GFS has taken over the leading spot from ECM with 67.3 pts to 67.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.3 pts to 48.2 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   I am still trying hard to find anything to pin my hopes on in the quest for the search for meaningful wintry weather to affect the UK this Winter and again this morning the models refuse to budge outside of the generally Atlantic dominated pattern that has plagued us so much this Winter with winds between SW and NW throughout the runs from all models. We currently have a very mild and moist SW flow across the U that will last a day or so before less mild weather moves across early in the week. From thereon it's just a case of watching repetitive spells of wind and rain followed by brighter and in the North more showery conditions and as the temperatures fall behind the cold fronts a wintry element to the showers is likely up here. With pressure always High to the South there is little chance of anything that cold reaching these parts before the next mild surge of energy with wind and rain rushes East across all parts. Winds look likely to be very strong at times with gales or severe gales especially over the North and West. Then as we move into the second week little overall change seems likely with the same Atlantic domination to the weather as the coming week. The one slight difference is the eventual shift of the lowest pressure to move over towards Scandinavia which should allow rather more coherent colder interludes to sweep South at times through all areas though without the fall of pressure to the South near Spain this looks doomed to fail on a pattern changing scale. We need pressure to rise strongly across the Atlantic and the removal of the Southern European High pressure before we can look forward to any sustained Northerly influence to establish and while the Jet Stream remains as strong as it's predicted to be it looks far from obliging in the near future, patience is definitely a requisite.   

Next Update Monday January 25th 2016 from 09:00

[Carl46Wrexham]

13 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Why not ?? we had plenty of snow off of a NW flow last winter.. so i for one dont mind seeing the models showing this kind of set up..

Areas with a bit of elevation did well yes. Lower lying areas got very wet. No thank you... Saw more than enough rain from the recent feeble effort at a "cold" spell.

[bluearmy]

Over the next 10 days we see the vortex on this side of the NH transfer it's main centre from NE Canada to Svalbard.  That's seems like a good direction of travel for cold if you have some patience. Bound to see some lee northerlys to keep the interest going. The problem for coldies is that post day 10, the core of the vortex transfers back to NE Canada. This toing and froing of the vortex just keeps the Atlantic an unpleasant place to be sailing a dinghy.  In my experience, the only chance for cold and snow (away from elevation and Scotland) in this set up  is if the cold zonality sinks far enough south to allow a runner in the flow. 

[Cloud 10]

Quite a wild zonal weather ride this week with rainfall once again becoming an issue,especially in the areas which must be very weary of it now.

 

 

 

Things set to cool down as we enter February as the PV heads towards Scandinavia and goes pear-shaped.

 

[Derbyshire Snow]

Morning all although its quiet in here, but I think I know why. Jet stream in charge still, some cold zonal at times with snow on Scotland Hills, very windy in many areas

 

Latest image downloaded 10.30AM off my sat dish of the US Snowstorm, cold front very visible. Jet stream is strong across the US again , you can see developing troughs in west of States. This doesn't augur well for the North Atlantic unless we can get heights to develop to break this jet stream .

Interesting end to this run but well in to FI

[Banbury]

It is an interesting end to the run, first signs of a change maybe?? I hear people say that GFS is good at picking up a change...............of course it could be just another tease ?

Edited January 24, 2016 by Banbury

[cheshire snow]

Hardly any comments on the GFS 06z at T144 a nasty storm to the

North of Scotland brings Blizzards to the Highlands,followed by a cold

West to NW bringing wintry PPN as far south as the Midlands,and as

Banbury says above an interesting end to the run in FI

C.S

[Singularity]

Another decent enough ECM det. this morning in terms of the U.S. pattern evolving. Slightly slower to clear the low heights from Canada on this run which is a typical sort of adjustment as the models have a habit of moving things along a bit too quickly when they first start to pick up on a marked change.

We see the EPO block maintained as the Aleutian low retrogresses in response to the emerging tropical forcing (MJO with associated addition to the GLAAM), some disruption occurring on it's eastern flank.

When it comes to our side of the hemisphere, it's a case of watching those big storms come in from the NW and head for eastern Europe in the 7-14 day range... not particularly exciting for many I know. Unless, that is, we see a less organised slow sliding more sharply SE from Iceland and get a bit of a cold undercut on the northern side. Just a possibility, that's all.

GEM's a bit more arduous this morning due to strong LP development off the East U.S. coast which interferes with the pull west of HP from Europe days 10-11 (latter inferred). Another possible complication.

 

It does have to be accepted that we'd have to get very lucky for this to be a clean, quick transition to high pressure close enough to the W and NW to bring us the level of cold weather that interests down south in particular are searching for. I anticipate that the first week of February will be a bit complicated and perhaps irritating for some in the short-mid range, though to compensate, the longer-term charts may be of great entertainment by then as the period 7th-14th Feb comes into view.

 

Having said that, I continue to watch the MJO in case it races off in the next few days. UKMO is a little more pronounced with the Aleutian low retrogression days 4-6 than ECM which is a sign that the model is still running with a kick-off taking place that soon. Basically that, combined with the handling of how the strat. displacement affects the trop., is where we are looking to get lucky.

[Paul_1978]

Well 8th Feb is still 360 hours away, and of course 8th Feb was the magical date in 1991.

Some of those FI charts were looking interesting….one to keep an eye on. 

Plenty of winter left and all to play for IMHO!

[bobbydog]

of course, its at the end of the run. however, considering the recent output, a Scandi High has got to be worth a mention...

[Neilsouth]

Just now, bobbydog said:

of course, its at the end of the run. however, considering the recent output, a Scandi High has got to be worth a mention...

 

Looks like NE states going into the deep freeze AGAIN, so annoying it happens so many times, any reason why this happens so often?

[Singularity]

I find the 06z GFS very much out of sync with the expected direction of travel. Height rises in the wrong places!

 

Regardless, I am seeing that some issues could be had with the strat. vortex briefly nosing back toward Canada around 5th-6th Feb as another bout of even stronger warming hits the strat. The idea is that this then pulls back toward Europe and the vortex weakens even further.

It's such a brief reach toward Canada that I think it will only cause issues with low heights over NE Canada if they have not already been cleared away. This is where the less optimistic end of my recent outlooks comes from; the decent cold setup taking until some point in the second week of Feb to establish. It's the route that the EC ens. seem rather keen on and again, where we need a bit of luck if we are to avoid it.

It's never easy to get a good cold weather setup in the UK, is it?  Not ruling out a bit of luck though to at least place the landing point within the first 7 days of Feb.

[Polar Maritime]

It will be interesting following the deep low model'd by the GFS 6z for next weekend, Some very cold air -7/8c uppers being dragged in as the storm passes from a cold N/W Pm flow giving blizzards for Scotland and snowfall almost anywhere. 

 

Towards the end of the run height's are shown pushing well up into the Arctic disrupting the Vortex..

 

Edited January 24, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Mark Bayley]

A definite signal for the core of lower heights over Greenland to transfer towards the European side of the Arctic. This is evident in the ECM and GFS ensemble means >

However, the GFSE seems to keen to later transfer low heights back towards Greenland, likely scuppering an sustained cold spell. Although i'd suggest folks have a read of singularities recent posts. I think they sum nicely the risks but also cold opportunities as we progress into February. 

Edited January 24, 2016 by Mark Bayley

[Sweatyman]

3 hours ago, bigsnow said:

Why not ?? we had plenty of snow off of a NW flow last winter.. so i for one dont mind seeing the models showing this kind of set up..

I think he probably thinks like me south of peak district -nothing!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Are we beginning to gather momentum?  It was only recently where we saw high pressure to our south having a big day. That seems to be subsiding as pM air is showing its hand.  At least to start I think N Ireland, Scotland and favoured areas north will feel quite wintry before long.  I'm thinking that will seep south not too long after.  The PV to transfer towards our locale of the hemisphere and keep looking for further tweaks towards colder blasts shifting further south as we head to months end into Feb. That's my shout anyway, still hopeful for coldest section of winter first 2 weeks of Feb at least.  At least it looks an improving picture from the slug to the south.  Of note it looks likely to be exceptionally windy Most of the week ahead and leeside of Pennines could get very squally at times 

 

BFTP

Edited January 24, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[nick sussex]

I think the issues with where the GFS sticks the PV are a reflection of its strat warmings. The first warming sends the main chunk east to Scandi, then the second unfortunately ends up pushing the PV west over Greenland again.

Its ironic because if the main chunk would settle for a while over Scandi this would give a better chance for some colder conditions.

Unless these warmings significantly weaken the PV then this PV table tennis is just going to make any colder conditions difficult.

In terms of any nw flow as the PV initially heads east I think the MJO is going to have to help by adding a bit more amplitude into the pattern to displace the Euro high further nw.