Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

[Penrith Snow]

The Slightly cooler 12z ECM has moved towards the mega mild GFS this morning so all models agree on a very mild and unsettled spell coming up but with high pressure influencing the south.

I mentioned a few days ago the possibility of a 1998 type of February with exceptional temperatures and a Super Bartlett to the south and that is what is being modelled on some of the output. It was in February 1998 that Paul Bartlett christened his creation and there are some huge Bartletts around during the next two weeks, it's no so much Uncle Barty it's Grandad Barty and all his Cousins!

Early days but could the mildest winter on record be up for grabs? With the record December and mild January February will be the decider but I wouldn't bet a months salary against it.

Time to go and sharpen the blades on the lawn mower.

Andy

[fergieweather]

9 minutes ago, -Bomber- said:

Two days ago it was signs of NW/N in early February. Today it's from mid February.  Never a good sign

Former via passing low(s): transient. That's not to be confused with sign of broadscale meridionality in GloSea further into Feb. Re last cold spell, the model did forsee it quite a few days ahead (as eventually did EC Monthly after a sudden switch in output between two runs). All models were caught short after the profound changes that occurred in polar pattern during the post-Frank period (something NO longer range model could have predicted until the matters then unfolding were adequately assimilated).

Edited January 23, 2016 by fergieweather

[bluearmy]

Incidentally, the extended eps are consistently carving out a fairly zonal nw euro trough. Could be some pretty unsettled and potentially v windy conditions first week feb. 

[Paul]

11 minutes ago, IDO said:

The cold spell you refer to was not really a cold spell down south, just average winter fare, and by far Jan will be remembered more down here for the dry weather and milder temps and lovely clear blue skies (6c many days during the "cold" spell). Another mild sunny day south of London this morning. 

Average max in SE England in Jan is ~ 7.4c - so 6c highs are colder than average. 

Anyway, bringing this back to the models. There's certainly signs of flat zonal westerlies becoming a bit more meridional in the latter part of the GEFS ensembles to back up some of the other long range modelling. 

[wishingforsnow]

Another interesting post by 'Stormchaser' on the current model output vs what's happening in the Strat: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=759951&find=unread#post759951

Ian's update is interesting, seems mid February onwards is a possibility for a switch to begin but as always we have to wait and see.

Edited January 23, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[phil nw.]

Yes it is case of wait and hope for coldies.We can see the warmings from the top down over in the Strat.thread which will slow the mean zonal winds and continue to weaken the vortex as we go into February.In fact they are reversing at the very top already.

We are not currently seeing a complete split forecasted yet in pv,more a displacement which is moving the low heights towards our side so in the short term sees this zonal pattern developing.

The hope is that a weaker PV along with expected renewed amplification of the jet will give us something Wintery but we are now looking towards 2 weeks onwards as those gefs stamps Paul posted earlier showed.

[blizzard81]

Not looking great is it? Especially after Ian's last couple of updates. We can only hope there is a sudden change in the output. Maybe the strat is our last chance to rescue this so called winter.

[wishingforsnow]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Not looking great is it? Especially after Ian's last couple of updates. We can only hope there is a sudden change in the output. Maybe the strat is our last chance to rescue this so called winter.

At the moment not for the immediate timeframe but Ian hasn't ruled out an eventual change and neither have the events in the stratosphere where warming seems to be well underway. The renewed mobility and milder weather could be a result of the warming process progressing to displace or split the vortex coupled with events in the US. Its a waiting game but hopefully one that will pay off in the end. 

Edited January 23, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[blizzard81]

Just now, wishingforsnow said:

At the moment not for the immediate timeframe but Ian hasn't ruled out an eventual change and neither have the events in the stratosphere where warming seems to be well underway. The renewed mobility and milder weather could be a result of the warming process progressing to displace or split the vortex. Its a waiting game but hopefully one that will pay off in the end. 

Well, I have just saluted two magpies. This is a good omen for the 12z runs

[fergieweather]

9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Not looking great is it? Especially after Ian's last couple of updates. We can only hope there is a sudden change in the output. Maybe the strat is our last chance to rescue this so called winter.

? I can't see how latest prognosis isn't a welcome one if you want colder weather. To re-iterate: latest GloSea5 ensembles have predominance of -ve temp anomalies after mid-Feb. Latest EC Monthly has neutral or -ve bias. Crucially, neither exhibit a +ve signal. 

[Ali1977]

FI on the GFS 6z isn't too bad, jet is starting to meander , big spike of WAA towards the Arctic early Feb - and a little low forming near Portugal...Potential is there...

And as Ian has just said - thing ARE looking better towards mid Feb...We're not in the last gasps of winter here - Feb can be very cold 

Edited January 23, 2016 by Ali1977

[Singularity]

GEFS mean continues to slowly adjust upward (outlook from few days ago in red)... no significant phase 1 any more which is good, but what's sorely missing is the anticipated kick from the MJO getting going across the Pacific. 

The ECM ens. are seeing that kick but not for 9 or 10 days, so the effects are in their infancy on the det. run - but they are certainly evident over the U.S. and look good for shutting down the chain of lows coming up from the Eastern Seaboard which is what's looking to displace the Azores High east to Europe during the next 7-10 days.

UKMO actually has the MJO kicking off in just 4 or 5 days time. If only the run we get to see went out beyond 6 days! Judging by the sound of GloSea5, it's not so fast and probably has similar timing to ECM ens. and with a fair number of perturbations taking longer still. Just an educated guess of course. As it happens, recent history has led me not to trust GloSea5's handling of MJO events quite as much as a UKMO/ECM blend. Just my opinion and I still give the model a lot of credit! 

 

Edit: might as well throw in the MJO plots:

Notice the very slow movement that ECMF comes up with. Possible interference from the Indian Ocean again - how much of that will turn out to be genuine is a matter of waiting and seeing. Come on MJO, you can do it, you can break free!

Edited January 23, 2016 by Singularity
Plot

[mcweather]

2 hours ago, West is Best said:

 

This is the same GloSea5 that completely missed the last and only cold spell of the winter, telling us that the signals were for continuation of rampant Atlantic?

The models are zonal with a whopping great Bartlett high to our south, which is THE dominant signal right now and for the immediately foreseeable future. Unfortunately.

With respect WIB.   I think you,re  getting things a bit mixed up here. GLOSEA 5 is a broad scale atmospheric model. Last week s colds spell was brought about by a high pressure area that simply took a couple of days longer than usual to move over the UK  and as such to my mind at least was a minor perturbation in the west to east pattern that had been well forecast to exist through most of January. A bit of wintry good fortune  if you like.  GLOSEA is there to paint an overall atmospheric picture not to decide if its going to snow on a certain day in the eastern or western half of England

Edited January 23, 2016 by mcweather

[snowking]

19 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Pitty it wasn't a month earlier!, because even if and when we do get favourable anomolies,we then have the long drawn out saga of getting the ideal conditions

for cold and snow here. All the time winter is ticking away! Rather than looking for a cold spell we'll probably be looking for snow events! Having said that if we could get anything remotely like what NE USA is having atm for a couple of days I'd bite your hand off!!

I think this is a fair point, but for me the last 7 or so years have proven two things that many members on here thought true to be quite the opposite

1) The whole idea that even given our changing climate that the UK can't experience substantial cold (December 2010 the main candidate for this amongst others). Dare I mention the crackpot 'M.W' theory?!

2) The idea that beyond about February 10th any chance of a major cold spell for the UK is gone. I suspect this idea was formed following the late February 2005 cold spell where we saw almost perfect synoptics (and indeed in my part of Essex at the time we saw 17 consecutive days of snowfall) but some less impressive conditions ultimately on the ground. If anyone wanted proof that this is not the case, March 2013 should hopefully shine through here.

What we're experiencing right now appears to be what many expected all along from a 'typical' El-Nino winter - a stormy start, some moderate (albeit short) cold spells in Jan and the majority of any cold potential really backloaded. This was what the majority of winter forecasts I've seen have suggested, these were my own thoughts, these were the suggestions from the GloSea5 seasonal output we get to see via the Planners Forecast and from what I can see happening about 10km above our heads in the coming weeks this would seem the most likely direction of travel.

Of course none of this guarantees something much colder for the UK. We're a tiny little island in the middle of a big ocean. But the notion that time is running out just because we're heading into February is not one we should let concern us

SK

[blizzard81]

54 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

? I can't see how latest prognosis isn't a welcome one if you want colder weather. To re-iterate: latest GloSea5 ensembles have predominance of -ve temp anomalies after mid-Feb. Latest EC Monthly has neutral or -ve bias. Crucially, neither exhibit a +ve signal. 

Two reasons really. This is all three weeks away and could easily trend milder - these things usually do  Secondly, I have run out of patience with this winter, especially on the back of the last two winters preceding. I don't want to wait another 3 weeks lol.

Edited January 23, 2016 by blizzard81

[Paul]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Two reasons really. This is all three weeks away and could easily trend milder - these things usually do  Secondly, I have run out of patience with this winter, especially on the back of the last two winters preceding. I don't want to wait another 3 weeks lol.

But this being the model thread, neither of those reasons really have any relevance to this discussion - would recommend you and others who don't want to discuss what model output is showing head over to the winter chat thread instead  

 

 

[wishingforsnow]

7 minutes ago, snowking said:

I think this is a fair point, but for me the last 7 or so years have proven two things that many members on here thought true to be quite the opposite

1) The whole idea that even given our changing climate that the UK can't experience substantial cold (December 2010 the main candidate for this amongst others). Dare I mention the crackpot 'M.W' theory?!

2) The idea that beyond about February 10th any chance of a major cold spell for the UK is gone. I suspect this idea was formed following the late February 2005 cold spell where we saw almost perfect synoptics (and indeed in my part of Essex at the time we saw 17 consecutive days of snowfall) but some less impressive conditions ultimately on the ground. If anyone wanted proof that this is not the case, March 2013 should hopefully shine through here.

What we're experiencing right now appears to be what many expected all along from a 'typical' El-Nino winter - a stormy start, some moderate (albeit short) cold spells in Jan and the majority of any cold potential really backloaded. This was what the majority of winter forecasts I've seen have suggested, these were my own thoughts, these were the suggestions from the GloSea5 seasonal output we get to see via the Planners Forecast and from what I can see happening about 10km above our heads in the coming weeks this would seem the most likely direction of travel.

Of course none of this guarantees something much colder for the UK. We're a tiny little island in the middle of a big ocean. But the notion that time is running out just because we're heading into February is not one we should let concern us

SK

I agree with everything here

[blizzard81]

Quite a few colder members showing in the gfs ensembles. Something tells me we will not have to wait until the middle of Feb for winter to return.

[snowray]

Was sniffing around past Winters charts where things changed very quickly from dross and mild after mid February, remembered 1962, Euro high/Bartlett, then a Northwesterly followed be a severe Easterly late February/Early March. Might end up with something like this going on what Ian F has been pointing out in his posts, and not just a North Westerly toppler...some nice charts:

 

I'm not saying this is going to happen, just illustrating how quickly things can change.

 

 

[mcweather]

45 minutes ago, snowking said:

I think this is a fair point, but for me the last 7 or so years have proven two things that many members on here thought true to be quite the opposite

1) The whole idea that even given our changing climate that the UK can't experience substantial cold (December 2010 the main candidate for this amongst others). Dare I mention the crackpot 'M.W' theory?!

2) The idea that beyond about February 10th any chance of a major cold spell for the UK is gone. I suspect this idea was formed following the late February 2005 cold spell where we saw almost perfect synoptics (and indeed in my part of Essex at the time we saw 17 consecutive days of snowfall) but some less impressive conditions ultimately on the ground. If anyone wanted proof that this is not the case, March 2013 should hopefully shine through here.

What we're experiencing right now appears to be what many expected all along from a 'typical' El-Nino winter - a stormy start, some moderate (albeit short) cold spells in Jan and the majority of any cold potential really backloaded. This was what the majority of winter forecasts I've seen have suggested, these were my own thoughts, these were the suggestions from the GloSea5 seasonal output we get to see via the Planners Forecast and from what I can see happening about 10km above our heads in the coming weeks this would seem the most likely direction of travel.

Of course none of this guarantees something much colder for the UK. We're a tiny little island in the middle of a big ocean. But the notion that time is running out just because we're heading into February is not one we should let concern us

SK

Thanks SK

One of the best posts I have ever read in this forum re late winter cold and snow prospects. There is an awful lot of tosh talked about the sun being too high etc to get decent cold and snow in late feb and early March.  The height of the sun didn't have much effect in the second half of feb 1978 when I had three blizzards in four days on the south culminating in 20 foot drifts on the 19th Feb. Nor did  the height of the sun or the day length make any difference to the poor farmers pulling dead sheep out from under the immense drifts in March 2013. 

[wishingforsnow]

7 minutes ago, snowray said:

Was sniffing around past Winters charts where things changed very quickly from dross and mild after mid February, remembered 1962, Euro high/Bartlett, then a Northwesterly followed be a severe Easterly late February/Early March. Might end up with something like this going on what Ian F has been pointing out in his posts, and not just a North Westerly toppler...some nice charts:

 

I'm not saying this is going to happen, just illustrating how quickly things can change.

 

 

Never say never! 

[nick sussex]

Overall a disappointing morning in terms of outputs. The ECM has edged the jet north and the Euro high looks strong.

The ECM now moves the main chunk of the PV east towards Scandi but then wants to bring this further west again, I suspect this is the effect of warmings on the strat.

In terms of the ECM ensemble spreads some suggestion of low pressure tracking further south by day ten, the ECM ensembles as a whole don't really show up anything that would suggest deeper cold heading into the UK within the next two weeks.

Although theres some colder solutions past day ten these look more like a PM flow type set up.

I think we're now left in the situation with placing all our hopes on   the possible re-strengthening of the MJO signal and/or  a major or minor SSW.

Of course we'd prefer to see a major SSW, that might still happen but theres much shorter odds on a minor SSW.

What impact those teleconnections have we'll have to wait and see but at this time we really need something to finally weaken the rampant PV which allied with the stronger Euro high is a bad recipe for cold.

Patience is likely to be sorely tested because we'll soon be into February and don't have weeks to spend on "slow burners"!

 

[lorenzo]

Can't keep my eyes off the US #blizzard2016 - Amazing scenes. Some ominous, negative looking boring model output - especially when juxtaposed to utter snowmaggedon over there. Still, lots can change and to change in the near future.

Looking at the tropical things first, MJO sees varying movement plotted via P3-4 UKMO and ECM in better alignment than the GFS, the latter keen to return things to the circle of doom and nil influence.

GWO from Nick Schiraldi below, perhaps the GFS echoes above with another advertised downward spin, compared with verified plot,  still up on the higher reaches of the Nino orbit albeit it falling through P7.

So taking the period from 25 Jan through until 10th Feb and based on the above conditions you create this composite when still accounting for Nino.

Move this forward a bit and you get this. (10 days), potential transfer of height anoms. NNW.

Bring in the stratospheric charts and I appreciate it's own thread but crossover here, don't be mad Phil and Matt !

Here are D1, D5 and D10 intervals for a few plots , lower strat shows the vortex shift as it rotates round to our NE.

Then the vorticity for same intervals.

Following that the deceleration and wave impacts well discussed on here already.

From above. the point being massive changes ahead - beginning inside just 3 days, I don't think we are staring down the barrel of gun here as far as those who are looking for some more winter to escape the poles... by the end of the month the AO drops it's projected peak and let's just see where it goes next, I would wager down again, the NAO however a different matter, the west based look on a weakish NAO may be a source of frustration. Couple of more days of junk to watch then hopefully things will get going again ! 

Edited January 23, 2016 by lorenzo
moving ECM anom charts

[blizzard81]

You say changes beginning inside 3 days? I don't understand what changes you are referring to within 3 days?

Edited January 23, 2016 by lorenzo
Removing Quote

[lorenzo]

@blizzard81 have another read through, you can see the movement of the lower strat, the w1 begins , the vortex position shifts. Hence why the plots at Days 1 5 and 10. Point being only a few days before these considerable changes in the atmosphere begin to play out.