Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

[wishingforsnow]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Not many Ensemble members following the Op at day 10, with several looking like the GEM.

So maybe it could only be the 10-15 day period that is mild and unsettled at times. And a few models trying to build heights into Scandinavia again at the end of the period. Hopefully this trend verifies as we go through this final week and a half of January...

Edited January 22, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

So maybe it could only be the 10-15 day period that is mild and unsettled at times. And a few models trying to build heights into Scandinavia again at the end of the period. Hopefully this trend verifies as we go through this final week and a half of January...

A few day 14 examples, the more interesting ones.

Unfortunately lots with a huge chunk of PV near Greenland though.

Edited January 22, 2016 by Ali1977

[wishingforsnow]

4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

"Bartlett set in concrete" Not convinced .You've gone and posted it now though so that's it.Fat lady no cigar,running out of winter and there's always next year will be thrown out to the forum

Hold on though its January.....phew.

I agree with this. I'm not giving up on winter until such point if it should get to the middle of next month and the PV displacement/SSW has failed to benefit us, no change in pattern and no room for improvement showing in the models and elsewhere. Until then there's a while to go yet.

[fergieweather]

12 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

So maybe it could only be the 10-15 day period that is mild and unsettled at times. And a few models trying to build heights into Scandinavia again at the end of the period. Hopefully this trend verifies as we go through this final week and a half of January...

Hmmm. Unlikely, as it stands. The pronounced (& potentially record-breaking re snowfall issues) cold air outbreak in the US this weekend looks set to fire-up the jet with both vigour and what could prove considerable longevity. Realistically, as we've seen before in such set-ups, there's little chance of a speedy broadscale change to that pattern (an oscillating trough - flat ridge - trough etc etc story, with some deeper cyclonic members too in the ENS). There's scant sign of such change in latest medium range suites (EC 00z, EC Monthly, MOGREPS-15 and GloSea5) through remainder of Jan into at least early Feb, albeit hopefully some opportunity for the south to tap into +ve MSLP at least periodically, offering quieter, less windy/changeable weather, perhaps with frost and fog at times. Still no compelling SSW signal to hang hats on, but that could always change into next month.

Edited January 22, 2016 by fergieweather

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Hmmm. Unlikely, as it stands. The pronounced (& potentially record-breaking re snowfall issues) cold air outbreak in the US this weekend looks set to fire-up the jet with both vigour and what could prove considerable longevity. Realistically, as we've seen before in such set-ups, there's little chance of a speedy broadscale change to that pattern (an oscillating trough - flat ridge - trough etc etc story, with some deeper cyclonic members too in the ENS). There's scant sign of such change in latest medium range suites (EC 00z, EC Monthly, MOGREPS-15 and GloSea5) through remainder of Jan into at least early Feb, albeit hopefully some opportunity for the south to tap into +ve MSLP at least periodically, offering quieter, less windy/changeable weather, perhaps with frost and fog at times. Still no compelling SSW signal to hang hats on, but that could always change into next month.

Ian isn't the GloSea5 and ECM monthly suggesting some ridge in the mid Atlantic later on? That would tie in with the likely re-location of the main PV chunk over Scandi.

The MJO signal may well strengthen again although the GEFS are less inclined to do that versus the GEFS BC and ECM monthly. This divergence was evident the last time this was on the move. The UKMO initially was more bullish and proved correct , the GFS/GEFS was to be frank useless and joined the party as the guests were going home.

[Carlrg]

Thanks for taking the time to post Ian. All in all that's quite a downbeat forecast for what is left of January. Hopefully the frost you mention can creep as far North as Yorkshire. 

Edited January 22, 2016 by Carlrg

[Ali1977]

10 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Hmmm. Unlikely, as it stands. The pronounced (& potentially record-breaking re snowfall issues) cold air outbreak in the US this weekend looks set to fire-up the jet with both vigour and what could prove considerable longevity. Realistically, as we've seen before in such set-ups, there's little chance of a speedy broadscale change to that pattern (an oscillating trough - flat ridge - trough etc etc story, with some deeper cyclonic members too in the ENS). There's scant sign of such change in latest medium range suites (EC 00z, EC Monthly, MOGREPS-15 and GloSea5) through remainder of Jan into at least early Feb, albeit hopefully some opportunity for the south to tap into +ve MSLP at least periodically, offering quieter, less windy/changeable weather, perhaps with frost and fog at times. Still no compelling SSW signal to hang hats on, but that could always change into next month.

Very informative of what the next 10 days hold. Nothing against you Ian obviously, but a dross outlook for coldies reading that -maybe the GFS is right.

 Let's hope for a switch last 2/3s of Feb.

Edited January 22, 2016 by Ali1977

[BristolBaggie]

7 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Hmmm. Unlikely, as it stands. The pronounced (& potentially record-breaking re snowfall issues) cold air outbreak in the US this weekend looks set to fire-up the jet with both vigour and what could prove considerable longevity. Realistically, as we've seen before in such set-ups, there's little chance of a speedy broadscale change to that pattern (an oscillating trough - flat ridge - trough etc etc story, with some deeper cyclonic members too in the ENS). There's scant sign of such change in latest medium range suites (EC 00z, EC Monthly, MOGREPS-15 and GloSea5) through remainder of Jan into at least early Feb, albeit hopefully some opportunity for the south to tap into +ve MSLP at least periodically, offering quieter, less windy/changeable weather, perhaps with frost and fog at times. Still no compelling SSW signal to hang hats on, but that could always change into next month.

Well that's it then! 

[Essex snowman]

Omg frost is that the best hope this winter has been shocking and continues in the same THRU February 

[fergieweather]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Ian isn't the GloSea5 and ECM monthly suggesting some ridge in the mid Atlantic later on? That would tie in with the likely re-location of the main PV chunk over Scandi.

The MJO signal may well strengthen again although the GEFS are less inclined to do that versus the GEFS BC and ECM monthly. This divergence was evident the last time this was on the move. The UKMO initially was more bullish and proved correct , the GFS/GEFS was to be frank useless and joined the party as the guests were going home.

Yes, they do: albeit inevitably such weaker signalling offered at longer range needs to be given due caution. Plus that's a signal out beyond mid-Feb, so not of course in range of deterministic NWP. Of course, as history shows us, much can change between now and mid/late Feb.

[wishingforsnow]

8 minutes ago, BristolBaggie said:

Well that's it then! 

To be fair though, Ian's update suggests that whatever happens beyond early-mid February is anyone's guess. Maybe it will be unsettled until then but if the SSW/displacement does happen in the meantime a change from the middle to end of February cannot be ruled out. We have to wait and see what happens.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

To be fair though, Ian's update suggests that whatever happens beyond early-mid February is anyone's guess. Maybe it will be unsettled until then but if the SSW/displacement does happen in the meantime a change from the middle to end of February cannot be ruled out. We have to wait and see what happens.

No surprises there then? All those who can accurately predict the UK's weather (with or without models) on a regular basis and at distance of more than 3 weeks - please stand up!

[fergieweather]

6 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

To be fair though, Ian's update suggests that whatever happens beyond early-mid February is anyone's guess. Maybe it will be unsettled until then but if the SSW/displacement does happen in the meantime a change from the middle to end of February cannot be ruled out. We have to wait and see what happens.

Exactly so. 

[chris55]

Longer range outputs are not to be taken as gospel. Even though the Mets best models are showing little of interest going forward re cold I'm just going to wait and see what unfolds before writing any particular pattern off. Be it cold or mild.

Remember that our cold shot last week wasn't really picked up in any mid term forecast at the beginning of Jan I don't think. 

 

 

[Sweatyman]

6 hours ago, Redwood said:

Can we shift our Isle over to the East coast of America?

 

Yeah thought they were supposed to be having the mild winter? Same old story

[chris55]

The trouble is when we "revert to type" it seems difficult for any model or individual for that matter to accurately predict when the change will come.

[Weather-history]

32 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Still no compelling SSW signal to hang hats on, but that could always change into next month.

I'm struck by this comment because I would have thought what the ECM and GFS stratospheric charts have been showing, would have raised an eyebrow or two with the accompanying  "hmmmm"

[wishingforsnow]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

I'm struck by this comment because I would have thought what the ECM and GFS stratospheric charts have been showing, would have raised an eyebrow or two with the accompanying  "hmmmm"

The high res models obviously haven't picked up the signal yet, but who's to say they won't in the coming days/weeks ?

[joggs]

12 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Yeah thought they were supposed to be having the mild winter? Same old story

El nino winters in ne USA generally mild first half,2/3 then colder late on.

Sorry off topic 

[wishingforsnow]

1 minute ago, joggs said:

El nino winters in ne USA generally mild first half,2/3 then colder late on.

Sorry off topic 

Also BBC's video on 'what does the rest of winter have in store' mentioned that as a possibility for the UK too. So we now have to see if the models will reflect any big change into February and whether the final part of winter will deliver for cold and snow in the UK like 2013 as a recent example or will it be mild and wet dross until we're just waiting for the first bit of Spring high pressure to dry us out again (like in March 2014).

Edited January 22, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Drifty]

Ssw is never compelling imo! Rather a stab in the dark for people losing their minds when the models don't strike out at them! I believe cherry picking is the word! The charts at the minute are dire! Give it 72 hrs the model output thread will be alive once more!!!! Hopefully!

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I'm struck by this comment because I would have thought what the ECM and GFS stratospheric charts have been showing, would have raised an eyebrow or two with the accompanying  "hmmmm"

Perhaps that second warming that pushes the Vortex back west again is their thinking, ie- its going to prevent any Northerly occurring, the only way I can see a decent cold spell now around mid feb happening is if that warming actually gains in strength and carries on squeezing the vortex until it completely dismantles.

[wishingforsnow]

Just now, Drifty said:

Ssw is never compelling imo! Rather a stab in the dark for people losing their minds when the models don't strike out at them! I believe cherry picking is the word! The charts at the minute are dire! Give it 72 hrs the model output thread will be alive once more!!!! Hopefully!

Then why is there a good consensus for a potential SSW growing and with support from experts? I wouldn't say its a 'stab in the dark' exactly as its possibly getting more likely in the reliable time frame but we still have to see whether it will actually play out and with favourable results.

[Drifty]

Consensus for what?? Will come and go, like many other years ssw?? So little known, so little delivered??

[joggs]

Gp around to shed some light on the wandering torpedo?