Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

[Methuselah]

It seems that the ECM might be setting a new trend. A trend that looks like it's in turn playing catch-up to to the MetO's longer-range outlooks? BTW, are there any long-range forecasts that do not suggest colder weather, as we go from winter into spring?

Edited January 27, 2016 by Ed Stone

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It seems that the ECM might be setting a new trend. A trend that looks like it's in turn playing catch-up to to the MetO's longer-range outlooks? BTW, are there any long-range forecasts that do not suggest colder weather, as we go from winter into spring?

Only catch up Pete if its shows cold from mid month.  MetO haven't been going cold for turn of month very early Feb?  Nice if they do

 

BFTP

Edited January 27, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Only catch up Pete if its shows cold from mid month.  MetO haven't been going cold for turn of month very early Feb?

 

BFTP

So, unlike everyone-else, the MetO have to correctly predict the precise day, do they? But I suspect - and may of course be wrong - that by the time the models are all agreed on a change, we'll be almost a week into February, anyway? By the time it actually happens, who knows what the date'll be?

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, coldcomfort said:

How about the power of rational thinking? 

I was just agreeing with Fred (BFTP)...plus, it does look like there will be spell of more wintry weather next week spreading south with some snow and frost in the forecast for a change!

[northwestsnow]

Already looking like another flat GFS run at 72, im beginning to wonder if gfs might well be right at the moment.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So, unlike everyone-else, the MetO have to correctly predict the precise day, do they? But I suspect - and may of course be wrong - that by the time the models are all agreed on a change, we'll be almost a week into February, anyway? By the time it actually happens, who knows what the date'll be?

Yes, with a quintillion £ computer moreso than anyone else  .  But the point being that ECM for me isn't playing catchup, it may be leading the way modelwise or it may be another merry dance

 

BFTP

[Ravelin]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Already looking like another flat GFS run at 72, im beginning to wonder if gfs might well be right at the moment.

A bit early in the run to determine that I'd say. The differences with the other models didn't really start showing up until around t120.

Anyway, even if it does stick to a flat pattern, that won't necessarily make it correct and the others wrong. Only time will tell which was right and which was wrong i.e. when we get to the point the weather actually happens (although you'd kind of expect the models to converge before we get that far).

[karlos1983]

I think it's probably best to wait until around 144 (at least!!)  and compare with UKMO and eventually ECM. I'm not sure we see much change with +72, we arent expecting a sudden flip. It's not the detail that really matters to me, it's the overall pattern change, ridding Europe of the heights and promoting some blocking in the form of an Atlantic Ridge?

 

Edited January 27, 2016 by karlos1983

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yes, with a quintillion £ computer moreso than anyone else  .  But the point being that ECM for me isn't playing catchup, it may be leading the way modelwise or it may be another merry dance

 

BFTP

I knew you would say that, Fred...

[MR EXTREMES]

oooooo little low pressure forming just north of the azores is this the low that the other models picked up on this morning interesting if it is channel runner or swift ne direction

also signs of heights  to our south getting squeezed away

ukmo not without interest either on the 120 it has a surface heights build in between Iceland Greenland

Edited January 27, 2016 by emotional rollercoaster

[northwestsnow]

20 minutes ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

oooooo little low pressure forming just north of the azores is this the low that the other models picked up on this morning interesting if it is channel runner or swift ne direction

also signs of heights  to our south getting squeezed away

ukmo not without interest either on the 120 it has a surface heights build in between Iceland Greenland

WZ is down must admit i find the ukmo run disappointing really, way to much punch in the atlantic .

GFS is barely worth mentioning again, similar to the 0z and 6z before it.

UKMO looks better on wz, but im not sure where it goes after 144.:)

Edited January 27, 2016 by northwestsnow

[MR EXTREMES]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

WZ is down must admit i find the ukmo run disappointing really, way to much punch in the atlantic .

but the 144 is a pretty decent chart not amazing better than the gfs at the same timeframe,

although stats have ukmo behind the gfs ecm gem so of coarse skeptical.

gfs has heights over the uk a cool cold high although nothing terribly cold.

although id expect the gfs high in the later run wont be there in future runs,

or even worse further south.

but most certainly moving away from the direct westerly flow more cooler nw flow although this still pretty crap for us southerners

 

[Abyss]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

WZ is down must admit i find the ukmo run disappointing really, way to much punch in the atlantic .

 

Huh? Too much punch in the Atlantic? Where tell me please I'm mystified

[Ravelin]

Well, I suppose the GFS at t240 is a bit more amplified than it was...

compared to the earlier run...

But it still bears virtually no resemblance to the 0Z ECM run for roughly the same time...

Old cliches coming out..."more runs needed"..."lets see what tonight's ECM brings" etc

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, -Bomber- said:

Huh? Too much punch in the Atlantic? Where tell me please I'm mystified

Prior to 144 its atlantic dominated, at 144 i would suggest the attempted ridge will collapse due to the weight of the lows spinning of the vortex.Added to that we have positive height anamolies stretched across mainland europe.

[Daniel*]

UKMO is fairly good once we lose those euro heights to south a cold northerly would be inbound for the British Isles, need more amplification in N Atlantic for it to sustain, however UKMO only takes us to day 6.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Ravelin said:

Well, I suppose the GFS at t240 is a bit more amplified than it was...

compared to the earlier run...

But it still bears virtually no resemblance to the 0Z ECM run for roughly the same time...

Old cliches coming out..."more runs needed"..."lets see what tonight's ECM brings" etc

And don't forget that 'the building-blocks' are in place, Rav?

[Paul_1978]

Just now, Ed Stone said:

And don't forget that 'the building-blocks' are in place, Rav?

You'd be the first to say "model output discussion only please" at this point. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

46 minutes ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

oooooo little low pressure forming just north of the azores is this the low that the other models picked up on this morning interesting if it is channel runner or swift ne direction

also signs of heights  to our south getting squeezed away

ukmo not without interest either on the 120 it has a surface heights build in between Iceland Greenland

UKMO has it too

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2016012712/UW144-21.GIF?27-17

and JMA had it doing this

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2016012612/J192-21.GIF?26-0

 

Interesting at end of run like GEM it has the deep LP moving WNW/ESE as it approaches UK.   Clearly plenty of options being churned out, GFS is worsening though.

 

BFTP

 

Edited January 27, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Mucka]

I think we will be lucky to get an ECM type outcome as it is a best case scenario from 144h that depends on the timing and track of the Atlantic low shown here way out West at 144.

Also ECM has a sharper Scandi trough which gives a better initial Northerly flow.

By 168 the low is just West of Ireland and at 192 it has zipped across the country and phased with the Scandi trough giving the northerly an extra kick and amplifying the pattern behind, At 216 the next low is forced SE because of this

That requires an awful lot of things to go our way and no surprise this run was at the extreme end of the colder solutions.

Given that, it is unlikely we will get a repeat this evening but on the plus side there are signs that the jet will start to want to push south day 6/7+ so hopefully we will finally get rid of those pesky heights to our South which have been the bane of this Winter. If we can get low pressure diving into N Europe then it will be game on for worthwhile ridging again and the chance of blocking setting up. 

So hopefully whatever the models throw at us run to run they at least show a sign of wanting force low pressure on a more Southerly track over the coming runs.

 

Edited January 27, 2016 by Mucka

[Abyss]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Prior to 144 its atlantic dominated, at 144 i would suggest the attempted ridge will collapse due to the weight of the lows spinning of the vortex.Added to that we have positive height anamolies stretched across mainland europe.

Atlantic isn't dominated at t120 to the south. Also it's similar to ecm at same time frame so I disagree. Negative nellies 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, -Bomber- said:

Atlantic isn't dominated at t120 to the south. Also it's similar to ecm at same time frame so I disagree. Negative nellies 

Excuse me? Im one of the more optimistic coldies.

There has hardly been anything to be positive about since the turn of November.

Believe me when isee something worth ramping up im the first in the que!!!

And im sorry but im not seeing anything worthy of a ramp in gfs or ukmo this evening.

[Frosty.]

This doesn't look bad at all from the ukmo 12z with pressure rising in the Atlantic and a nicely aligned scandi trough at T+144 hours which ties in with the met office update today for colder weather to spread southeastwards early next week with wintry showers and snow to lower levels as well as hills. I hope the Ecm 12z builds on the very promising 00z..for coldies I mean.

[Daniel*]

GFS on the happy juice clearly, up to old tricks by blowing things out of proportion.

[MR EXTREMES]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I think we will be lucky to get an ECM type outcome as it is a best case scenario from 144h that depends on the timing and track of the Atlantic low shown here way out West at 144.

Also ECM has a sharper Scandi trough which gives a better initial Northerly flow.

By 168 the low is just West of Ireland and at 192 it has zipped across the country and phased with the Scandi trough giving the northerly an extra kick and amplifying the pattern behind, At 216 the next low is forced SE because of this

That requires an awful lot of things to go our way and no surprise this run was at the extreme end of the colder solutions.

Given that, it is unlikely we will get a repeat this evening but on the plus side there are signs that the jet will start to want to push south day 6/7+ so hopefully we will finally get rid of those pesky heights to our South which have been the bane of this Winter. If we can get low pressure diving into N Europe then it will be game on for worthwhile ridging again and the chance of blocking setting up. 

So hopefully whatever the models throw at us run to run they at least show a sign of wanting force low pressure on a more Southerly track over the coming runs.

 

excellent post mucka exactly all about timing and to be honest theres certainly interest there if things go together.

the vortex is being modelled to split which is a step in the right direction but my fears are the bloody blob left behind over the Canadian side I mean its not even that big just a blob whilst the sister parts are going the right direction.