Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Lol Nick if you thought the ecm was poor, hope you didn't see the gfs 6z

The GFS 06hrs run just highlights the importance of not having the phasing upstream. I suppose one crumb of comfort is at least theres agreement to split the PV within T144hrs. Something the GFS was reluctant to do for quite a few runs.

[Abyss]

2 minutes ago, Paul said:

Not sure if you're trying to put words in my mouth or are just misunderstanding. but I'm talking actual lying snow. In heavier bursts, then lower levels may see snow, but it's likely to be wet, and not settle, or at the very least not settle any more than very temporarily. 

No not at all I understood perfectly what you said. Snow warning has been modified for NI and Southern Scotland and increased to include a larger area. "Elsewhere, snow accumulations will be more localised, with around 1-3 cm possible, primarily above 100 metres." So mostly above 100m not exclusively. No need to climb a mountain for that

[Paul]

3 minutes ago, -Bomber- said:

No not at all I understood perfectly what you said. Snow warning has been modified for NI and Southern Scotland and increased to include a larger area. "Elsewhere, snow accumulations will be more localised, with around 1-3 cm possible, primarily above 100 metres." So mostly above 100m not exclusively. No need to climb a mountain for that

Well there we are, not sure I mentioned climbing mountains either, and even said on my post about heights that the level in Scotland was about 100m up, for 'a better chance of lying snow'.  So it would appear we're singing from the same hymn sheet.....

[Abyss]

59 minutes ago, Paul said:

if anyone is expecting lying snow away from the higher ground of northern Britain (perhaps excluding lower parts of northern Scotland) during the weekend, then they're going to be disappointed. This weekend will bring some wintriness, but we're talking sleet, wet snow, hail etc at lower levels from the midlands northward, so don't be dusting the sledges off unless you plan to climb a hill! 

But most of us don't live on the top of hills and mountains! Which is kind of the point I'm making 

Just to give some idea of heights with the decent snow risk (ie a better chance of lying snow). Looks like northern England - 200-400m, north Wales, 300-400m, Scotland 100-200m, and Northern Ireland 200-300m, 100-200 in places. 

ell there we are, not sure I mentioned climbing mountains either, and even said on my post about heights that the level in Scotland was about 100m up, for 'a better chance of lying snow'.  So it would appear we're singing from the same hymn sheet.....

I said lying lowland snow cannot be ruled out for NI and Southern Scotland because you dismissed it away from N.Scotland and the metoffice latest update maintains it's a possibility 1-3cm possible primarily but not exclusively above 100m. I don't know what hymm sheet you're singing from. Lot of conflicting points above

Edited January 28, 2016 by -Bomber-

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, -Bomber- said:

I said lying lowland snow cannot be ruled out for NI and Southern Scotland because you dismissed it away from N.Scotland and the metoffice latest update maintains it's a possibility 1-3cm possible primarily but not exclusively above 100m. I don't know what hymm sheet you're singing from. Lot of conflicting points above

LOL time to move on me thinks..Looking forward to the 12z..

[Paul]

17 minutes ago, -Bomber- said:

No not at all I understood perfectly what you said. Snow warning has been modified for NI and Southern Scotland and increased to include a larger area. "Elsewhere, snow accumulations will be more localised, with around 1-3 cm possible, primarily above 100 metres." So mostly above 100m not exclusively. No need to climb a mountain for that

Okie dokie, well I don't think I've made conflicting posts at all, I think they're all saying the same thing. But anyway I'm not going to continue cluttering the thread with it as it's not fair to other members wanting to read about the model output rather than semantics. I was only trying to be helpful and temper what appeared to be some unrealistically high expectations of this weekend!

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, -Bomber- said:

I said lying lowland snow cannot be ruled out for NI and Southern Scotland because you dismissed it away from N.Scotland and the metoffice latest update maintains it's a possibility 1-3cm possible primarily but not exclusively above 100m. I don't know what hymm sheet you're singing from. Lot of conflicting points above

I think the issue Bomber is will the snow still be there in the morning. Temporary accumulations does not a sledge make!lol There is not the depth of cold away from much higher ground to suggest lying snow. And seeing as most in here don't live in northern Scotland or on the top of a hill then I think expectations are running ahead of what the outputs suggest.

Of course it might be fun for some to see snow falling and of course in the UK I suppose you grab these opportunities but to be honest a lot of people have missed out on seeing any snow at all and so the weekend isn't really up to much in terms of delivering to those members.

[Abyss]

1 hour ago, Paul said:

 

 

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think the issue Bomber is will the snow still be there in the morning. Temporary accumulations does not a sledge make!lol There is not the depth of cold away from much higher ground to suggest lying snow. And seeing as most in here don't live in northern Scotland or on the top of a hill then I think expectations are running ahead of what the outputs suggest.

Of course it might be fun for some to see snow falling and of course in the UK I suppose you grab these opportunities but to be honest a lot of people have missed out on seeing any snow at all and so the weekend isn't really up to much in terms of delivering to those members.

Who said anything about high expectations or sledging I just said lowland snow cannot be ruled out for NI/S.S like paul said. Even the warning is measly 1-3cm. Waste of time

[tight isobar]

For this instance its jet (jet stream alignment) thst heralds swings/divergence.the upstream pattern remains volatile to say the least.

And given the phenomenal events at large part usa it was a clear ramification for a revived energised jet.its playing again havoc will modelling/miss modeling with ecm slack in notice and hyping amplification. ? And the gfs and others toying then chucking flat mobility 'directly. 

Its a waiting game once more of getting 2/3 suites of modelling to pattern pick and then look for upgrading or indded dilution of occurance.

But one things a certainty on this occasion it'll be more potent than the cool /cold of recent if the likes of former ecm has hinted or we'll endure much the same as we've become a custom to !

A fair part rides on 12 z today imo.

[northwestsnow]

Hmmm- as expected ecm was pretty much leading us all up the garden path yesterday.Todays offering is a lot more sobering with potential for any 'serious' cold out at day 10.

Added to that a pretty un interested GEFS and a slightly watered down METO further outlook mentioning slightly below average temps late Feb i feel its starting to look like the further south you are then the chances of a pretty much snowless winter have gone up a notch this morning.

I live in hope of upgrades but time is ticking very quickly now towards the 11th hour to salvage something from an absolutely pathertic UK winter..

[mb018538]

You'd think that a bit of snow over higher ground constitutes a decent winter for some people! Let's be honest, even in the most awful winters, snow over higher ground nearly always happens....zonal weather nearly always has cold sectors which are conducive to this. As for lower levels? Well we can but hope that yesterdays stonking ECM run finds some support somewhere. It doesn't look too likely at the moment, but then again the last 'cold' spell a couple of weeks back sort of appeared from nowhere too.

Edited January 28, 2016 by mb018538

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmm- as expected ecm was pretty much leading us all up the garden path yesterday.Todays offering is a lot more sobering with potential for any 'serious' cold out at day 10.

 

That's pretty-much on schedule (one week +/-) with what GP and the UKMet have been suggesting, then?

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That's pretty-much on schedule (one week +/-) with what GP and the UKMet have been suggesting, then?

Well yes and no really, i think its pretty fair to say what GP was suggesting has not materialized.Insofar as the metoffice are concerned, i cant see any reference to what the ecm at day 10 shows?

Im not suggesting higher parts of NI and scotland wont see any snow but for the vast majority its not a great outlook if its snow and cold you are chasing.:)

Edited January 28, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Derbyshire Snow]

Afternoon

Jet stream as most of this winter is the driving force of our weather and it will not let up and looks unlikely for awhile yet. Our most important teleconnections do not encourage the jet to weaken or move significantly south. There is plenty of cold locked in to the north. For example this frame  at t240 shows potential but while the energy is charging across the atlantic we are only going to tap in to it temporarily

A SSW is very important, even a minor one would help somewhat. It could split the PV, and encourage heights to develop over Greenland, halt the Atlantic flow and hopefully allow a substantial low to dive south in to Europe, leaving us in a very cold and long lasting north to north east flow. Not much to ask for i know, but its happened in winters gone by  why not now.  Unfortunately there isnt a major SSW predicted, but this could appear in days without much warning  

As several have been commenting on here. The outlook at the moment is for some incursions of polar maritime air, great for Northern Hills, hardly spectacular south of the border.

The models are however still interesting to watch. We will get more cold and its fascinating to discover where it arrives from. Then as soon as  we  have a severe spell we are looking for when it breaks down. Thats model watching  for you.

Will be on this evening, hopeful as ever.

Edited January 28, 2016 by Derbyshire Snow

[phil nw.]

I think what all true snow lovers want is too see is snow that falls and lays for more than a few hours.Tbh when we see these fast moving polar maritime shots as the lows whip through this is unlikely away from the usual elevated areas further north.Apart from these relatively short lived periods of cold uppers before the next warm front comes is the issue of higher dew points that comes with Atlantic sourced air.

In the current pattern without any decent Amplification of the Atlantic jet,which would turn the winds towards north, we will continue to see more typical temperatures with restricted snowfall.

The latest ens temp graph

whilst not mild the graph shows we are still waiting for that elusive spell of deep cold to satisfy Winter lovers nationwide.

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

I think what all true snow lovers want is too see is snow that falls and lays for more than a few hours.Tbh when we see these fast moving polar maritime shots as the lows whip through this is unlikely away from the usual elevated areas further north.Apart from these relatively short lived periods of cold uppers before the next warm front comes is the issue of higher dew points that comes with Atlantic sourced air.

In the current pattern without any decent Amplification of the Atlantic jet,which would turn the winds towards north, we will continue to see more typical temperatures with restricted snowfall.

The latest ens temp graph

whilst not mild the graph shows we are still waiting for that elusive spell of deep cold to satisfy Winter lovers nationwide.

Absolutely spot on post phil,to be honest pretty much all your posts are in my experience.

Its the meto update thats the biggest kick for me today, they aretalking slightly below temps in late Feb now.Backloaded winter is going to be changed to front loaded spring  soon if we are not careful (coldwise ).

[ukpaul]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Well yes and no really, i think its pretty fair to say what GP was suggesting has not materialized.

Interested to know whivh bit you think hasn't materialised, the question of higher pressure to our west in the second week of February being still out of the reliable time frame on the models.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

Interested to know whivh bit you think hasn't materialised, the question of higher pressure to our west in the second week of February being still out of the reliable time frame on the models.

Well maybe your right paul, i was under the impression GP was going for the change around the 26th of jan?

[phil nw.]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Absolutely spot on post phil,to be honest pretty much all your posts are in my experience.

Its the meto update thats the biggest kick for me today, they aretalking slightly below temps in late Feb now.Backloaded winter is going to be changed to front loaded spring  soon if we are not careful (coldwise ).

Thanks for that nws.

I do sense the frustrations and i wish the pattern was better for a chance of a nice shot of Arctic cold to at least give cold lovers something to take from this grey and wet Winter before it finishes but we continue to wait and hope.

We really need to see a better split of the 2 vortex lobes and yesterday's ECM Op runs showed what could be achieved with even a modest amount of ridging of the Atlantic flow .

The cold air is there lurking to the north we just need something like that to bring it this way. The 12z runs will soon be out so let's see if they can raise any further interest,

Edited January 28, 2016 by phil nw.

[cheshire snow]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Well maybe your right paul, i was under the impression GP was going for the change around the 26th of jan?

That's a bit liking saying Man Utd will

score in the 19th minute on Saturday 

(Bad example)but  you get my point

highly unlikely.

C.S

[ukpaul]

Just checking and the suggestion appeared to be a messy last week of January, heights rising early February with a more northerly component replacing north westerly further into the period with Atlantic ridge becoming clearer with the caveat of the 'strat allowing'. Originally the Strat was looking to reach its warmest by 1st Feb but that has been put back four or so days to where it has now stabilised so some delay for that last point? That then potentialy leading to a more north easterly wind direction, again reliant on other factors at that range, I need to look at the GWO and such to see if if predictions from that point have transpired though.

[BarnetBlizzard]

Slight improvement on the 12z GFS at 132 hours- a little more heights in the Atlantic extending a little further north. 

[Geordiesnow]

Some sort of upgrade in the cold for this weekend I have noticed, its now sticking for a touch longer and the flow looks quite potant I have to say, I really would not be surprised if we see reports of snowfall(and even settling snowfall) at lower levels in the North on Saturday night. Convective should be ripe though with cold uppers, low thicknesses and warm SST's.

As for the cold next week, the GFS 12Z to my eyes looked a bit better upstream than the 06Z runbut unfortunately because of Icelandic shortwave and how the trigger low behaves, the cold air is struggling to make our shores. I think we will lose the mild air next week but how cold will it get will be the major uncertainty I feel, not an awful lot to get excited from the runs I have seen but as per ever, details are always subject to change from run to run. 

[northwestsnow]

GFS is pretty dreadful again away from NW Britain,esp with elevation .

Just when you think the door is opening for some much needed retrogression along come another jet surge.So frustrating, i honestly have seen nothing like the last two winters for non stop lows hurtling across the atlantic ruining any hope of atlantic retrogression, grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr.

[Mucka]

7 minutes ago, BarnetBlizzard said:

Slight improvement on the 12z GFS at 132 hours- a little more heights in the Atlantic extending a little further north. 

 

Yes only slight amd needs to keep going that way to make any real  difference.

 

UKMO also a minor improvement in that direction.

 

MetO now calling Atlantic ridge end of Feb instead of just after mid month, oh well.

Edited January 28, 2016 by Mucka