Model output discussion - 21st Jan Onwards

[feb1991blizzard]

I just wonder what the EC32 is suggesting tonight.

 

EDIT : The JMA strat 10mb chart is a stonker but then so have many 240's lately only for the warming to fade before any technical SSW comes close.

Edited January 28, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Derbyshire Snow]

    ECM at  t240. Thats what i call interesting weather. If that verified we would have the following  2 or 3 days in Scotland very wintry. Without the strong jet stream that could easily  become special nationwide. GFS in agreement with this chart at t240. I will certainly take that

 

 

Edited January 28, 2016 by Derbyshire Snow

[Frosty.]

15 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

most people on here want a little more than some poxy drab north westerly airflow (latest meto update) 

Better than a poxy mushy swly / sly blowtorch....give me a north westerly veering northerly through Feb and I will be very happy!....The Gfs 18z shows colder air spreading south and lasting until later next week, I think there is enough time left for something better to develop but that's the optimist in me!

[Ravelin]

11 minutes ago, Derbyshire Snow said:

I dont know what happened to my last post, but here goes again.

This latest run from the GFS shows the atlantic well in charge with a strong jet stream flowing throughout and unfortunately at the end of the run the jet trends back north. We do once again have some heights developing around and over Greenland mid run but not strong enough. AO and particularily NAO still positive in the next 7 to 10 days.

Its good to see the Euro high displaced but is now showing late  in the run, to have transferred south/southwest of the UK. Still not a good position

However some Northern areas early next week according to most models , particularly on the hills, should get some snow during the passing of polar maritime air.

That's a 'glass half empty' post and a half. 

If, and it's a massively huge 'if' , the GFS is correct at "the end of the run", we've still got the bulk of the tropospheric PV to our NE and the "euro high" is off to the west of Portugal. I'm not saying it's fantastic but it's far better than we've had for most of this winter so far. 

[Pembroke Dangler]

The next couple of weeks will define the rest of the winter early spring period I feel, and it will be led by a ssw anomaly that will squeeze the life out of the ao which will cause the PV to loose its grip over Greenland/eastern Canada. This will then send heights poleward maybe not all the way but enough to force the air across Western Europe to come from a pm/am and will lock in for a month. This will wax and Wane from time to time in terms of nw/w sometime direct n'erly nne but the theme will be one of colder than average. I'm taking a punt and going for a snowy Easter this year for the whole of the U.K. At some point. This is what I feel the met are hinting at but thought I'd put my take on it

[Nouska]

The extended ECM means now getting close to the middle of February period - day 14 and 15 Z500 charts on a localised view.

     850 temps 

That looks emphatically trough dominated and with the 850 temps around -5 to -6 on the area that can be viewed, it looks to be a marked change as per the Met office updates.

The mean charts, all winter have shown the Euro ridge at the extended time frame so we can maybe now look forward to something a bit different.

[fergieweather]

49 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I just wonder what the EC32 is suggesting tonight.

Essentially as per GloSea5: ie +ve MSLP anomalies building central N Atlantic (and perhaps Greenland) with -ve anomaly across/N/E of UK into mid-month; temp anomalies thus trending neutral or -ve (more pronounced -ve signal in northern UK, inevitably in that regime); mean flow NW-N'ly. By later Feb the height/MSLP anomaly shifts E to lie generally more SW/S of UK with resumption of broadly W'ly regime and upturn in temp anomaly. The mean fields of course mask typical spread evident in inspection of stamps and minority solutions (a few of which would be notably colder), but clear form horse at present remains notion of MSLP rises to W (& perhaps NW) and a phase of colder NW-N'lies around mid-month, as recently billed in UKMO outlooks.

Edited January 29, 2016 by fergieweather

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Essentially as per GloSea5: ie +ve MSLP anomalies building central N Atlantic (and perhaps Greenland) with -ve anomaly N/NE of UK into mid-month; temp anomalies thus trending neutral or -ve (more pronounced -ve signal in northern UK, inevitably in that regime); mean flow NW-N'ly. By tail-end of Feb the height/MSLP anomaly shifts E to lie generally more S of UK with resumption of broadly W'ly regime and upturn in temp anomaly. The mean fields of course mask typical spread evident in inspection of stamps and minority solutions (a few of which would be notably colder), but clear form horse at present remains notion of MSLP rises to W (& perhaps NW) and a phase of colder NW-N'lies around mid-month, as recently billed in UKMO outlooks.

Thanks Ian.

[Derbyshire Snow]

35 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

That's a 'glass half empty' post and a half. 

If, and it's a massively huge 'if' , the GFS is correct at "the end of the run", we've still got the bulk of the tropospheric PV to our NE and the "euro high" is off to the west of Portugal. I'm not saying it's fantastic but it's far better than we've had for most of this winter so far. 

I do agree that the high is marginally better to the south west of us than in Europe. Unfortunately we have a strong jet steam which is steering lows over the top of this high. If we had a weaker jet stream the high positioned there would be then ok as it could link up to a ridge from Greenlnd  and lead to  a more persistent cold north westerly with air more likely to be from the north 

Edited January 28, 2016 by Derbyshire Snow

[Pembroke Dangler]

4 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Essentially as per GloSea5: ie +ve MSLP anomalies building central N Atlantic (and perhaps Greenland) with -ve anomaly N/NE of UK into mid-month; temp anomalies thus trending neutral or -ve (more pronounced -ve signal in northern UK, inevitably in that regime); mean flow NW-N'ly. By tail-end of Feb the height/MSLP anomaly shifts E to lie generally more S of UK with resumption of broadly W'ly regime and upturn in temp anomaly. The mean fields of course mask typical spread evident in inspection of stamps and minority solutions (a minority of which would be notably colder), but clear form horse at present remains notion of MSLP rises to W (& perhaps NW) and a phase of colder NW-N'lies around mid-month, as recently billed in UKMO outlooks.

Something similar to what I posted above then. Thanks Ian.  Easter is earlier this year I wonder what the odds are on a white Easter?? It's normally a better bet than a white Christmas. Might pop to the bookies tomorrow worth a pound lol.

[Daniel*]

7 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

That's a 'glass half empty' post and a half. 

If, and it's a massively huge 'if' , the GFS is correct at "the end of the run", we've still got the bulk of the tropospheric PV to our NE and the "euro high" is off to the west of Portugal. I'm not saying it's fantastic but it's far better than we've had for most of this winter so far. 

Panic would ensue if it ended up the reality, the latter part of the run shows the polar vortex regathering angriness the fact of the matter it is not awful, but that gives me no inclination for deep cold for UK. What we all well most sought for till approaching months end. Heights remain relatively high to the south with Azores high pushing into Western Europe. I think it is odds on Scotland, N Ireland, far north of England will do well over the next few weeks, however I await to see whether this will be more than just a northern affair....

[IDO]

As some are saying, subtle changes within the GFS. No sign of anything blocked, so AAM spikes may have been overridden by other background signals (ENSO).  However the general theme of a cooler airflow looks like gaining pace in February. Probably just cold rain for most south of Birmingham (average T850s) but the usual suspects will get their average Feb snowfall.

So it remains a zonal flow but a colder variety. The JMA week 2 (just released) highlights this: Week 3-4:

Similar week 3-4 anomaly. Little sign of any change in the pattern with heights to the south, a zonal flow but the UK within a trough. Just run of the mill winter fare. I have the opinion that no major SSW will happen by the end of February if at all so we have to rely on a favourable ENSO pattern. The MJO may not be much help for a few weeks so any blocking will be late Feb if at all based on current output. CFS week 3 and 4 has churned out relentless anomaly forecasts for this long term pattern, and they have been very solid. Again no change:

The signs were there last week and despite ECM overdoing heights as usual, giving false hope, GFS has been ultra consistent and ECM now in line. So week 2-3 looks like the Nino signal will dominate, with the UK in the cooler flow rather than the mild Dec warmth. But as for anything cold or any sustained wintry weather, for the majority (south of Birmingham) little hope in the medium term.

 

[Mucka]

I think we can sum the output up in one word, "stormy"

Looks like there could be some fairly potent but short lived NW/N outbreaks right out into FI giving wintry showers to the usual suspects.

Other than some wintry interest over the next 24h or so and then perhaps again around day 5, the main interest for me comes around day 9 where a deepening depression looks set to affect the UK and drive low pressure into Europe. The aftermath of that should hold some interest I think with low pressure running NW/SE unless the Azores high ridges back in as a spoiler.

Certainly cold zonal spell for 2nd week of Feb is starting to show up on the ensembles.

 

Back to the here and now, it looks like Scotland is going to get a pasting and perhaps the far North of England if Euro4 is on the right track

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/01/29/basis00/ukuk/prty/16013006_2900.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/01/29/basis00/ukuk/weas/16013100_2900.gif

Edited January 29, 2016 by Mucka

[mb018538]

Great....we've managed to trade mild and zonal for cold and zonal instead! Maybe a bit of wintry stuff further north through the middle of next week, but down south it looks like 5-6c, cold wet and windy. Eurgh!

Kudos to GFS really, I think it's probably handled this better than the other big two. UKMO last night had a 1030mb high moving in at 14 hours, that's been well and truly blasted today.

Going by this, some worryingly high rainfall amounts in the 6 day timeframe yet again. The southern and eastern areas can probably manage with a soaking this time as it's not been overly wet down here, but I can see 60-75mm forecast there again for Cumbria and the border regions of Scotland. We could be seeing December scenes all over again soon....

[booferking]

2 hours ago, Mucka said:

I think we can sum the output up in one word, "stormy"

Looks like there could be some fairly potent but short lived NW/N outbreaks right out into FI giving wintry showers to the usual suspects.

Other than some wintry interest over the next 24h or so and then perhaps again around day 5, the main interest for me comes around day 9 where a deepening depression looks set to affect the UK and drive low pressure into Europe. The aftermath of that should hold some interest I think with low pressure running NW/SE unless the Azores high ridges back in as a spoiler.

Certainly cold zonal spell for 2nd week of Feb is starting to show up on the ensembles.

 

Back to the here and now, it looks like Scotland is going to get a pasting and perhaps the far North of England if Euro4 is on the right track

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/01/29/basis00/ukuk/prty/16013006_2900.gif

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/01/29/basis00/ukuk/weas/16013100_2900.gif

Yes Northern Ireland looks good for a pasting also.

Edited January 29, 2016 by booferking

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

UKMO bring that runner back in, JMA had it last night.  ECM I think could drag more cold air in than its showing.  If anyone thinks kudos to any model yet, well good luck.  No major blocking has been shown or anticipated, it's all about the trough.  That means tweaking the activity within the overall set up.  There's still plenty going on and pretty interesting weather to boot.  I think there'll be plenty of weather warnings to come for next 10 days at least of battering wind, snow, rain, black ice and flooding.  I'm issuing them now!  With deep troughing over or very near to us it's a wild time to come.  Unfortunately more angst for stricken areas as precipitation will be plentiful.  

 

BFTP

 

 

Edited January 29, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[West is Best]

I very much agree with you Fred (BFTP). Sometimes it pays to look out the window as well as the models. This is a winter of Atlantic pounding and it's going to take one heck of a block and jet stream amplification for this to stop this onslaught. Neither looks very likely in the model runs taken day on day. It reminds me very much of January 1976 at the moment, when we had severe storms. It took several months for the block to arrive. But when it did, it produced the greatest summer on record. So there's a happy hope to cling onto

Edited January 29, 2016 by West is Best

[phil nw.]

We have removed some banter/moan posts.

Please remember the proper thread for those,model discussion only in here.

Ta.☺

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY JAN 29TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   Storm Gertrude is passing NE close to NW Scotland and pushing troughs East and South across the British Isles. Severe gale or storm force winds over the North will subside later today as the fronts become slow moving for a time across Southern England tonight reinvigorating for a time before clearing all areas tomorrow and leaving a cold WNW flow for all areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles is around 3000-4000ft across Scotland and 7000ft over Southern Britain. The level will fall everywhere over the next 24 hours to range from under 2000ft in the North and 3000ft in the South. Snow showers will be frequent over the hills of the North tonight and tomorrow will appreciable falls and potential blizzards over the Cairngorns for a time tonight

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Mostly unsettled and windy with rain or showers. Fluctuating temperatures with some snow at times over higher ground especially in the North.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The Jet Stream remains very strong across the Atlantic over the complete two week period. It's positioning lies across the UK for the next 3-4 days before a change of orientation later takes it on a more SE course towards the South of the UK leaving the UK in or on the western flank of a deep trough in the flow later.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows continued disturbed and often very windy weather with severe gales at times, bands of heavy rain and wintry showers all driven in with association of repetitive deep Low pressure moving in off the Atlantic close to or over the North of the UK with just brief ridges of High pressure giving short drier and brighter interludes with a frost now and again. Some snowfall is likely at times across the North and maybe on the hills of the South too at times.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run broadly follows that of the Operational with wet and wild the theme of much of the weather expected over the next couple of weeks. Slight changes are indicated very late in the run as High pressure builds towards Scandinavia finally blocking the passage of Low pressure to the East and splitting the flow North and South leaving the UK in quieter and benign conditions by day 15.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

GFS ENSEMBLE DAY 14 DATA  The GFS Clusters show a lot of range this morning at day 14. The common theme is the loss of High pressure to the South and placing it well out in the Atlantic West of the Azores. Winds are shown between West and NW from most members with gales and spells of rain and wintry showers likely with wintry showers and rather cold conditions for many. Some extremes suggest severe gales with a sizeable cluster showing Low pressure  to the SE and a North or NE flow across the UK with High pressure out in the mid Atlantic.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

UKMO The UKMO model this morning shows unsettled conditions continuing through next week with another stormy day on Monday in strong to severe gale WNW winds and rain then wintry showers, a theme looking like being repeated further later in the week with just the briefest of drier interludes too especially in the South. Temperatures will be fairly academic in the wind but should range from near average to rather cold at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show series of troughs crossing the UK from the West through the period with alternating wet and windy spells with sunshine and showers, wintry on hills. Last night's release shown High pressure close to the SW indicated on last night's 96hr chart, this has been modified on today's 84hr chart reducing the risk of a drier spell midweek.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning offers no relief either from the wild weather of late with further spells of rain and gales and wintry showers in between. Later in the run it winds up deep Low pressure in the vicinity of the UK which is shown in no hurry to leave our shores all the time maintaining wet and windy weather with showers as well, wintry on hill as the weather turns rather cold at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows the wet and windy spell continuing with severe gales at times early in the period. Later next week Low pressure is expected to realign nearer to the UK, indeed over us for the most parts with further rain or perhaps snow in places as colder air seeps South within the flow of this and other depressions late in the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows very unsettled weather across all parts of the UK over the next 10 days, deepening further later in the period as very deep Low pressure anchors across the UK with lots of rain and thundery and wintry showers commonplace a week or so from now. Severe gale or even storm force winds early in the period may give way somewhat later as the Low centre's become more UK placed but colder air later could well increase the risk of some snowfall almost anywhere in showery form.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart today indicates good support for many members showing a similar pattern to that of the operational at the 10 day time point with very unsettled and windy weather looking the most likely set-up with Low pressure close by or over the UK and the winds still predominating from a Westerly point but based from a more Northerly source than lately especially for the South of the UK so possibly rather colder for all.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The models are in unison today in maintaining very volatile and Low pressure based conditions remaining for the UK for the foreseeable future.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with GFS and UKMO at 99.5 pts each.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.7 pts to UKMO's 97.1 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.6 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.9 pts to UKMO at 89.3 pts and GFS at 88.7 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM has the leading spot from GFS with 68.2 pts to 67.2 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 50.4 pts to 49.5 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   The model output this morning does look quite troubling for those folks that don't like severe weather events because it looks likely that all parts of the UK could experience severe weather of one sort or another over the coming two weeks. Right now some very severe winds are buffeting the North of Scotland with lesser effects further South too as storm Gertrude passes by to the North. Then after a brief rest tomorrow and rain on Sunday a repeat performance of severe gales looks likely on Monday. The culprit of all this wild weather is of course the Jet stream which is currently remarkably strong 40000ft above our heads and until that eases changes will be small. Later next week changes do look likely but it is debateable whether it will mean better weather for us in the UK. It does look like the flow will dip South of the UK as well as turning on a more NW to SE course. This will allow pressure to fall across the UK to very low levels and it is likely that from late next week on Low pressure will lie across the UK with further spells of rain and showers. With this new positioning of Low pressure and a Jet stream by then to the South there is a strong chance that things will turn generally colder and some of the precipitation could fall as snow especially on hills and not just in the North. So there really is an awful lot going on above our heads over the next few weeks and the weather we receive as a result is far from unexciting for weather enthusiasts. So it's a case of batten down the hatches for some weather disruption over the next few weeks be it from rain, gales or snow, thunder, lightning and hail it's all possible and it's best not to get hung up on day to day details at the moment and while I might not be offering snow armageddon this morning I wouldn't be surprised that given a week or so a surprise fall of snow could occur almost anywhere. I'm taking a day off tomorrow so I will be back on Sunday with another look at where the weather takes us in the following two weeks.      

Next Update Sunday January 31st 2016 from 09:00

[MR EXTREMES]

Upper t850 temps across most of the models are not very supportive of anything exceptional here in the south the south west and south east very little in the way of blocking showing.

t850 for the southern half of the U.K. Really needs to be at or around -6 snow for southern areas from a nw flow is rare arctic source air is much better but even this does not always favour this unless we get a low front sweeping south.

most certainly going to be wintry next week and the weekend so Midlands north Northern Ireland Scotland will do well winter is arriving here for sure but residual pv over Canada and Azores high still a force to be reckoned with along the southern half of the U.K.

also other areas have the warm sector issues to think about although further north the better.

still debatable whether winter will arrive in the south southeast and southwest.

we have a split vortex can the strat warming beef up a bit to allow blocking I'm not overly enthusiastic about residual vortex and the strength of the vortex along with a powerful jet.

2010 was so different weak vortex blocking rampant 

so I'm not overly optimistic 

[Gibby]

11 minutes ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

Upper t850 temps across most of the models are not very supportive of anything exceptional here in the south the south west and south east very little in the way of blocking showing.

t850 for the southern half of the U.K. Really needs to be at or around -6 snow for southern areas from a nw flow is rare arctic source air is much better but even this does not always favour this unless we get a low front sweeping south.

most certainly going to be wintry next week and the weekend so Midlands north Northern Ireland Scotland will do well winter is arriving here for sure but residual pv over Canada and Azores high still a force to be reckoned with along the southern half of the U.K.

also other areas have the warm sector issues to think about although further north the better.

still debatable whether winter will arrive in the south southeast and southwest.

we have a split vortex can the strat warming beef up a bit to allow blocking I'm not overly enthusiastic about residual vortex and the strength of the vortex along with a powerful jet.

2010 was so different weak vortex blocking rampant 

so I'm not overly optimistic 

While I agree with the above it is my experience when pressure is so very low in Winter surprise weather events including snowfall can crop up at short notice and where you might otherwise least expect it under less deep Low pressure. With such volatility aloft and pressure as low as 970-960mbs almost anything can fall from the sky given the time of year it is though I must also add it is unlikely that anything long lasting on the ground would be likely away from higher ground further North. The next few weeks in my eyes are very interesting to say the least and you may be surprised.

Edited January 29, 2016 by Gibby

[Chris K]

Realisitically, the chances of a prolonged nationwide freeze are rather infrequent for the UK and I feel expectations of a "snowy" winter have somewhat been skewed by recent year's events. What we are seeing in the models is a trend to colder weather. If we are to end up with a generally NW/N airflow through February, we cannot rule out snow anywhere, but obviously it will always be more likely if you are situated further N and at a higher elevation.

With the Atlantic seemingly unwilling to calm down at the moment, we are seeing these storms develop on a trajectory that favours back-edge snow rather than anything prolonged. Similar to the setup we are seeing right now, we start with wind and rain in many areas, but as colder air tucks in behind each LP system, some will likely see snow showers and as the BBC forecasts have already stated, blizzards are likely in parts of Scotland and N Ireland. Some wintry showers haven't been ruled out for areas further South either.

We really do need the perfect set ups to see any stalling snow band or blocking that favours the large proportion of the country to see more substantial snow. Of course it happens and obviously a lot of us really desire it, but at this moment in time it does not look like the most probable outcome.

Your preferences will also determine what you are looking for. I personally look for weather type alone day by day rather than hope it falls in the 3 month winter period. If it snows in Spring, you won't see me complaining because I enjoy the aspect of the weather occurring rather than being determined to see it fall in Dec/Jan/Feb. Yes it is less likely to settle or hang around, but to be honest, having had settled snow in March and April, even here in the W country, can be an aspect of early Spring weather as much as Winter. That is the UK climate - varied and unpredictable, no matter what time of year it is.

Edited January 29, 2016 by Chris K

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

06z looks like more cold air involved. Lots of tweaking to come me thinks. 

 

BFTP

Edited January 29, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z saves the best until last with a colder and more blocked pattern...and some snow too!

[Ravelin]

Way out in FI as usual but GFS 06Z starting to hint at what MetO have been suggesting for mid Feb?

In the more reliable, is GFS also now making more of the little 'trigger low'  to the NW of Ireand Tue onwards?

Other lows trying to slide SE afterwards but not quite making it.