Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Northern Sky said:

Yes it did! After watching the models for a few years I've discovered that the best rule of thumb for picking the correct solution when the models disagree is go for the one which shows the mildest outcome - it never fails...

A better run in FI from the ECM with a re run of the mid Atlantic block. Isn't this what Fergie reported the Meto longer range models have been predicting for a while for mid Feb?

I was beginning to think i had imagined that ukmo fiasco / debacle in January.. and we are about to enter the most interesting period for coldies for quite some time, last week I never thought I would be saying that again this winter!

[Ali1977]

All these saying Midlands north for snow, the 06z had no snow above the Midlands and all in the south....Posistioning of potential snow is no where near sorted yet....lets see what happens in the next hour.

[winterof79]

Here is the METs latest take on the slider

Quite a way north it would seem.With a couple more waiting in the wings.

Edited February 8, 2016 by winterof79

[Timmytour]

Meantime Fergies seeing the possibility of wintery showers for the south west on elevation with a chance at lower levers as well within the next twelve hours! Might indicate how surprises can pop up shot-term from what seem to be rain on the models 

[winterof79]

5 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Meantime Fergies seeing the possibility of wintery showers for the south west on elevation with a chance at lower levers as well within the next twelve hours! Might indicate how surprises can pop up shot-term from what seem to be rain on the models 

EURO4 was always toying with some west country wintry precipitation.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/02/08/basis12/ukuk/prty/16020912_0812.gif

 

Gradually getting colder air into the mix with some heavy snow showers filtering down the spine mid week that were not forecasted

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/02/08/basis12/ukuk/prty/16021012_0812.gif

 

 

Edited February 8, 2016 by winterof79

[Daniel*]

Slight margins big results comparing 06z with 12z the former had nearing 40cm for the west of London! 

[Weather Observer]

Since mid November I have been trapped in Kafka's castle. I finally get out and what do I see, not one, but three potential escape routes. And all of them are full of hazards. 

This frustrating winter continues to wind us up. I cannot add anything new in the model discussion, but my weather instinct tells me to hang in there.

[weirpig]

Looks like the first hurdle as been cleared  the shortwave has phased   i believe.

[Timmytour]

better angle of slide coming up on the pub run?

[wishingforsnow]

6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Looks like the first hurdle as been cleared  the shortwave has phased   i believe.

[Timmytour]

Thursday morning rush-hour snow for south Wales?

[weirpig]

Not to be taken to seriously  but snow line a little further south  than the 12z

[mountain shadow]

Just saw the latest forecast for the end of the week and John Hammond saying the models are uncertain where the boundary will be.

[Godber 1]

John Hammond on the bbc suggesting "knife edge" scenario regarding rain-snow this coming weekend.

[Timmytour]

Just now, weirpig said:

Not to be taken to seriously  but snow line a little further south  than the 12z

The GFS precipitation charts love a bit of M4 action

[Daniel*]

Tomorrow's shortwave seems slightly further north on this run.

.

 

[stratty]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

Just saw the latest forecast for the end of the week and John Hammond saying the models are uncertain where the boundary will be.

+Knife -edge! But a definite threat!  

[Snowman.]

More profound feature spawning just west of the channel. May help bring the colder air further south.

Edited February 8, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[snowray]

Spot the difference! 

[Ali1977]

WAA looks slightly stronger and further West in this run, may help with a better cold shot early next week...we'll see!!

As I mentioned earlier, midland North not looking good on this run this time...South looking better, but I'd say marginal with those uppers...Mon/Tue wintery shower potential and much colder maybe a better chance.

Edited February 8, 2016 by Ali1977

[winterof79]

Slider city tonight two more incoming.

[weirpig]

Going under again!

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

5 minutes ago, stratty said:

+Knife -edge! But a definite threat!  

Really dislike marginal situations as from experience we (IMBY) always end up on the wrong side and just get loads of cold rain... 

[Timmytour]

Could be a bit of PV with the UK's name on it to our north'east  if we're lucky......

[snowice]

Lot of snow on pub run for East Ireland more sliders incoming