Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016

[chris55]

All i can say is that i await the 00z runs with much interest! As i said earlier if the slider materialises on Friday then the track... a few hundred miles north or south will be crucial as to where any snow will fall, and the 850s and how much colder air can get in before will be the deciding factor.

[Frosty.]

27 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

 

Stick with the UKMO - these similar circumstances to 2013 & Jan 16 saw UKMO come out on top

 

 

S

Stick with the ukmo? wasn't it the ukmo which lead coldies up the garden path during the last cold spell debacle in January!

[Methuselah]

Just now, Karl. said:

Stick with the ukmo? wasn't it the ukmo which lead coldies up the garden path during the last cold spell debacle in January!

I don't think so, no: it was the rampede on here?

[blizzard81]

7 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

That doesn't necessarily mean the ECM will be correct though

True, but people need to ask the question why ecm has back tracked at very short notice away from the very scenario it was first to spot.

[weirpig]

well who cares if the ecm dosent quite back the gfs   the best model of the lot  the  fim (what ever that is) brings in the slider

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

I don't think so, no: it was the rampede on here?

It was the ukmo showing narnia charts for days and days while the other models wernt really interested and then the ukmo backed down..I remember it well!

[wishingforsnow]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

True, but people need to ask the question why ecm has back tracked at very short notice away from the very scenario it was first to spot.

The shortwave confusion I think. The other models are going for absorption of the shortwave whilst ECM is showing the other outcome at the moment. 

[snowray]

My worry is that if GFS moves even slightly towords the ECM solution we will end up with less cold air over the UK and any snow will end up being restricted to Northern hills or, the only hope is that ECM moves quickly towards the GFS and UKMO on tomorrows runs, but is that likely to happen at T72?

We may have to wait till day 7 before lowland areas see anything white, and this is going to be a very short lived event since everyone topples very quickly on the ECM.

[nick sussex]

9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

True, but people need to ask the question why ecm has back tracked at very short notice away from the very scenario it was first to spot.

The issue with the ECM is not so much the Icelandic wedge, it still has that. Its the modelling of shortwave energy in the mid Atlantic which forces the wedge further east.

For some reason the models are struggling with this and even more bizarre that these divergences are showing up from close range.

I have some news which is sort of good and bad, NCEP Maine State Forecast have discarded the ECM solution from this weekend:

CLOSED LOW FROM BAFFIN ISLAND THEN SLIPS SOUTH AND MAINTAINS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST USA. THE ECMWF
FORMS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION THAT DRAWS THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GGEM HOLD IT OVER QUEBEC.
THE CONSEQUENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF FORMS A SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND
SNOWSTORM WHILE THE OTHERS FORM A WEAK WAVE WELL OFFSHORE.

THE FORECAST FAVORS A MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FAVORS A
CONSENSUS WITHOUT THE ECMWF OVER NEXT WEEKEND

The reason this is good and bad is that its T144hrs solution was okay and helped to get the UK low se'wards as its more amplified at that point over the ne USA. The good part I suppose is that if its wrong there hopefully it will also be wrong earlier.

What we don't want is it to be right upto T120hrs then wrong past that point otherwise it might struggle to clear the UK low.

I think the best thing is if the ECM just backtracks at T72hrs and stops being the Paris Hilton of the NWP. Attention seeking and damn annoying!

Edited February 8, 2016 by nick sussex

[Bristawl Si]

14 minutes ago, weirpig said:

well who cares if the ecm dosent quite back the gfs   the best model of the lot  the  fim (what ever that is) brings in the slider

Just a shame the AH cant move a few hundred miles South of where it's showing on there.

Not quite as bad as the 'slug' that sat over S Europe for most of Winter but it's still acting as a spoiler to allow the slider to move furthervs South over the UK.

[Frosty.]

LOL how the mighty Ecm reputation has fallen on here, now it's always getting bashed!

[Northern Sky]

8 minutes ago, Karl. said:

It was the ukmo showing narnia charts for days and days while the other models wernt really interested and then the ukmo backed down..I remember it well!

Yes it did! After watching the models for a few years I've discovered that the best rule of thumb for picking the correct solution when the models disagree is go for the one which shows the mildest outcome - it never fails...

A better run in FI from the ECM with a re run of the mid Atlantic block. Isn't this what Fergie reported the Meto longer range models have been predicting for a while for mid Feb?

[wishingforsnow]

9 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

Yes it did! After watching the models for a few years I've discovered that the best rule of thumb for picking the correct solution when the models disagree is go for the one which shows the mildest outcome - it never fails...

A better run in FI from the ECM with a re run of the mid Atlantic block. Isn't this what Fergie reported the Meto longer range models have been predicting for a while for mid Feb?

Could be another solution I suppose

With ECM the North would get snow and the South freezing rain this weekend

But ECM shows us cold at 240 with the mid Atlantic block reasserting itself. 

GFS at the same time frame has high pressure over us, drier but milder.

Hopefully FI is showing the signs of the end of these stormy wet 4 months, in any case drier weather is welcome, cold or mild.

Though Met have not specifically mentioned any cold or snow for the next week (yet) they have consistently gone for a more settled outcome present from the end of February into March.

Edited February 8, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[snowice]

48 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Well optimum would probably be central wales north but depending on track the south of wales at elevation could be at risk as well

 

s

HI Steve what makes you think ecm will revert back to ukmo output and do you believe it will be resolved by the morning 

[nick sussex]

The ECM postage stamps upto T120hrs, a complete mess and big differences from as early as T72hrs.

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2016020812!!/

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

Could be another solution I suppose

With ECM the North would get snow and the South freezing rain this weekend

But ECM shows us cold at 240 with the mid Atlantic block reasserting itself. 

I liked the Ecm 12z, it seems I'm in the minority but it shows a cold plunge and there is very little mild weather on it..I've seen a lot worse this winter!

[blizzard81]

17 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The issue with the ECM is not so much the Icelandic wedge, it still has that. Its the modelling of shortwave energy in the mid Atlantic which forces the wedge further east.

For some reason the models are struggling with this and even more bizarre that these divergences are showing up from close range.

I have some news which is sort of good and bad, NCEP Maine State Forecast have discarded the ECM solution from this weekend:

CLOSED LOW FROM BAFFIN ISLAND THEN SLIPS SOUTH AND MAINTAINS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST USA. THE ECMWF
FORMS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION THAT DRAWS THIS CLOSED LOW INTO THE
NORTHEAST USA SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND GGEM HOLD IT OVER QUEBEC.
THE CONSEQUENCE IS THAT THE ECMWF FORMS A SIGNIFICANT WEEKEND
SNOWSTORM WHILE THE OTHERS FORM A WEAK WAVE WELL OFFSHORE.

THE FORECAST FAVORS A MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN FAVORS A
CONSENSUS WITHOUT THE ECMWF OVER NEXT WEEKEND

The reason this is good and bad is that its T144hrs solution was okay and helped to get the UK low se'wards as its more amplified at that point over the ne USA. The good part I suppose is that if its wrong there hopefully it will also be wrong earlier.

What we don't want is it to be right upto T120hrs then wrong past that point otherwise it might struggle to clear the UK low.

I think the best thing is if the ECM just backtracks at T72hrs and stops being the Paris Hilton of the NWP. Attention seeking and damn annoying!

Lol, it is very frustrating Nick isn't it? I wasn't really referring to the Icelandic wedge so much. I was referring more to the moderate heights which the ecm ops (up until this morning) were eager to tentatively build over scandi. This signal has now been dropped. What a surprise lol.

[ANYWEATHER]

Hello Folks! Perhaps the first decent Wintry spell for southern Britain during Friday and over the weekend according to the Gfs  Snow Potential is there. Ecm spoils the party ....

[snowice]

Gfs has been the better model in my opinion this winter it has spoilt the party for us coldies this winter! Wouldn't be ironic if ecm was right tonight?  On this winters runs I'm going with the gfs! 

[mushymanrob]

Forget the vagaries of the ops,  the bigger news for coldies tonight is the more reliable noaa 8-14 day chart which keeps the messy low pressure area over the uk.  This says no to the ecms rapid return to milder westerlies,  and no to the gfs suggested high over us.  So a longer period of cold and unsettled must increase the snow risk much longer then the few days over this weekend / early next week.  

 

Cant post the charts,  on tablet.  

[Woollymummy]

9 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

the more reliable noaa 8-14 day chart which keeps the messy low pressure area over the uk.  This says no to the ecms rapid return to milder westerlies,  and no to the gfs suggested high over us.  

 

Cant post the charts,  on tablet.  

This one? Hope so x

[Snowy L]

3 hours ago, wishingforsnow said:

49 minutes ago, Karl. said:

LOL how the mighty Ecm reputation has fallen on here, now it's always getting bashed!

Funny how GFS has gone from being the villain to hero

Blame the last 3 years for that. Failed spectacularly with the infamous December 2012 non-cold spell and has shown cold spells in the last 2 winters only to be corrected by the GFS. Now that I've said that I bet the roles will be reversed for this event in the next few days and ECM will be right, sod's law.

[Hotspur62]

Never ceases to amaze me that this winter the only thing we have seen if there is the potential of cold weather is the Big 3( ECM GFS and UKMO) cannot agree lol!!. However, the major difference this winter is that I think the GFS has performed much better than previous 2/3 winters or is it just me. I know It still has a tendancy to be a little too progressive with the Atlantic coming in at times but I feel the relatively recent upgrade has made it  a model which has gained more credibility this last 6 months.

FWIW I think Midlands Northwards and with elevation of 150m+ stand a very decent chance of snow from Friday onwards but again I feel the South will probably miss out although Chilterns and highest ground of the South could be in for a pleasant surprise. That said it wouldn't take much for that to change and lets hope it does as for the South in particular, it has been  long 3 years in the search for snow !!        

[snowice]

1 minute ago, Hotspur61 said:

Never ceases to amaze me that this winter the only thing we have seen if there is the potential of cold weather is the Big 3( ECM GFS and UKMO) cannot agree lol!!. However, the major difference this winter is that I think the GFS has performed much better than previous 2/3 winters or is it just me. I know It still has a tendancy to be a little too progressive with the Atlantic coming in at times but I feel the relatively recent upgrade has made it  a model which has gained more credibility this last 6 months.

FWIW I think Midlands Northwards and with elevation of 150m+ stand a very decent chance of snow from Friday onwards but again I feel the South will probably miss out although Chilterns and highest ground of the South could be in for a pleasant surprise. That said it wouldn't take much for that to change and lets hope it does as for the South in particular, it has been  long 3 years in the search for snow !!        

GFS 1St

Ecm 2sec

Ukmo 3Rd

My opinion of course! 

[snowray]

I'm not sure if anywhere apart from Northern hills, if your lucky, will get any of the white stuff with these sort of uppers. Things do improve after day 6, but thats a long way off.

After all, its the difference between the potential for a 4/5/6 day cold spell from GFS and 24/36 hours from the ECM.

Edited February 8, 2016 by snowray