South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 2nd February onwards

[JennyJane1]

I know you know Great Yarmouth well, I was walking a couple of days ago alongside the Elizabethan museum big mistake I could barely keep my footing the wind was so strong. Won't do that again with the forecast now.

[Blessed Weather]

Beautiful sunny start - not a cloud in the sky. Chilly though at 5.6C.

Looking at the overnight Arpege high res output, storm Imogen starts to make its prescence felt overnight tonight, but its Monday afternoon when the worst of the winds impact our Region. Converting the km/h figures, the chart below suggests gusts up to 75 mph for south coast headlands; up to 68 mph several miles inland along the coastal strip; and up to 56 mph widely across the Region. (BTW - I noticed the BBC/MetOff graphic on TV just now had a 89 mph gust south of the Isle of Wight!!). So a damaging period of weather to come over the next 36 hours.

Max gusts up to 17.00 Monday

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Certainly time to batten down the hatches once more while we open them for today!

I can't get over the consistency of runs in terms of this storm it was showing last week Monday so hats of to the models 

Still time for minor changes people of the coast take care overnight and tomorrow 

Max gust here yesterday according to a station at Heathrow was 51mph tomorrow could go over 60mph!

[Captain Shortwave]

A nice sunny start here after a rather stormy and wet night.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

What BBC weather which I don't pay a great deal too come and go for 90mph along some exposed south coasts that's mental 

[AdamStorm7891]

Dare I say going by the pressure charts just about anywhere could see 70-80mph gusts tomorrow, especially around the lunchtime period for our region, easily 50-60mph minimum in and around the London area exposed coasts and headlines and with a tunnelling effect of the Thames Estuary 70-80mph south facing channel coastal locations maybe 90.

Then we have the double edged sword effect of some of the squally showers which could be thundery with hail etc... and then this supposed snow event on Tuesday, what is the situation with this?  None of the TV forecasts are predicting any snow but some of the models are, all very confusing!

[Daniel*]

58 minutes ago, AdamStorm7891 said:

Dare I say going by the pressure charts just about anywhere could see 70-80mph gusts tomorrow, especially around the lunchtime period for our region, easily 50-60mph minimum in and around the London area exposed coasts and headlines and with a tunnelling effect of the Thames Estuary 70-80mph south facing channel coastal locations maybe 90.

Then we have the double edged sword effect of some of the squally showers which could be thundery with hail etc... and then this supposed snow event on Tuesday, what is the situation with this?  None of the TV forecasts are predicting any snow but some of the models are, all very confusing!

Hi Adam,

This is a graphic produced by Met Office in what to expect. I expect to see the amber zone widened..

Current warning zones: 

Regarding Tuesday it is very uncertain a quite big mass of precipitation with intensity is expected was that not mentioned? Out of a shortwave tracking over us, engaging with relatively cold air it is marginal! the 6z has the snow falling mostly north of the M4, it seems to change run to run.

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Surrey said:

Certainly time to batten down the hatches once more while we open them for today!

I can't get over the consistency of runs in terms of this storm it was showing last week Monday so hats of to the models 

Still time for minor changes people of the coast take care overnight and tomorrow 

Max gust here yesterday according to a station at Heathrow was 51mph tomorrow could go over 60mph!

Already windy here, a friend who work on the pier said stay away from the front the waters coming over. That is now, quite worried about tomorrow.

[Snoopie42]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Hi Adam,

This is a graphic produced by Met Office in what to expect. I expect to see the amber zone widened..

Current warning zones: 

Regarding Tuesday it is very uncertain a quite big mass of precipitation with intensity is expected was that not mentioned? Out of a shortwave tracking over us, engaging with relatively cold air it is marginal! the 6z has the snow falling mostly north of the M4, it seems to change run to run.

Hi Daniel

I was thinking the same thing... The Amber warning doesn't quite reflect what is showing on the gust chart? If the gust chart was produced after the updated warning from earlier, then, you would think the amber warning would be extended further North (of London) on the next update? ......watch this space! 

Have a good day!

[AdamStorm7891]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Hi Adam,

This is a graphic produced by Met Office in what to expect. I expect to see the amber zone widened..

Current warning zones: 

Regarding Tuesday it is very uncertain a quite big mass of precipitation with intensity is expected was that not mentioned? Out of a shortwave tracking over us, engaging with relatively cold air it is marginal! the 6z has the snow falling mostly north of the M4, it seems to change run to run.

Thanks for your input Daniel, yes I'll be surprised if the Amber zone isn't made larger sometime this afternoon as confidence increases in the storms tracking, as for the potential of snow on Tuesday yes I know lots of precipitation has been mentioned but the air temps would need to plunge a good 2 or 3 degrees I'd have thought for there to be a significant snow risk, there might be some wet sleet or pellet like hail if the upper atmosphere is colder then the ground temps!

Tonight into tomorrow is sure to be interesting though with regards to the wind and rain, the winds yesterday where pretty rough probably gusting over 40mph regularly in my neck of the woods but I expect tomorrow morning into early afternoon to be significantly worse, possibly 60-70mph for a short period. Considering I work outside things could get pretty hairy!

[LeeCovFox]

I'm thinking there's now a real chance of my flight from Gatwick tomorrow afternoon being cancelled, not just delayed, which I'd be pretty gutted about. Just hoping the the winds die down enough that we'll at least manage a late evening flight.

[Kent Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, LeeCovFox said:

I'm thinking there's now a real chance of my flight from Gatwick tomorrow afternoon being cancelled, not just delayed, which I'd be pretty gutted about. Just hoping the the winds die down enough that we'll at least manage a late evening flight.

Good luck with that Lee, Mid Morning till very late in the evening looks like the main event.

I've already cancelled a meeting I had over in Essex, Dartford Bridge will be closed and the tunnels will be even more of a nightmare than it usually is.

Edited February 7, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[AdamStorm7891]

1 minute ago, LeeCovFox said:

I'm thinking there's now a real chance of my flight from Gatwick tomorrow afternoon being cancelled, not just delayed, which I'd be pretty gutted about. Just hoping the the winds die down enough that we'll at least manage a late evening flight.

Judging by most forecasts the strongest of the winds should have passed out into the North-Sea by the evening, but it depends where you're flying to. Just don't fly east unless you want to chase Imogen, I know she sounds attractive but I can assure you she won't be lol

[Snoopie42]

3 minutes ago, AdamStorm7891 said:

Thanks for your input Daniel, yes I'll be surprised if the Amber zone isn't made larger sometime this afternoon as confidence increases in the storms tracking, as for the potential of snow on Tuesday yes I know lots of precipitation has been mentioned but the air temps would need to plunge a good 2 or 3 degrees I'd have thought for there to be a significant snow risk, there might be some wet sleet or pellet like hail if the upper atmosphere is colder then the ground temps!

Tonight into tomorrow is sure to be interesting though with regards to the wind and rain, the winds yesterday where pretty rough probably gusting over 40mph regularly in my neck of the woods but I expect tomorrow morning into early afternoon to be significantly worse, possibly 60-70mph for a short period. Considering I work outside things could get pretty hairy!

Just adding to Adam's post, if the rain is of sufficient intensity it may help to reduce the temperatures further due to evaporative cooling. Knife edge stuff and very marginal, however, somebody in our region may get lucky!

[LeeCovFox]

3 minutes ago, AdamStorm7891 said:

Judging by most forecasts the strongest of the winds should have passed out into the North-Sea by the evening, but it depends where you're flying to. Just don't fly east unless you want to chase Imogen, I know she sounds attractive but I can assure you she won't be lol

We're flying up to Tromso, so away from the storm. I magine only take off will be the issue. The jetstream moving south makes a pleasant flight more likely.

[AdamStorm7891]

2 minutes ago, Snoopie42 said:

Just adding to Adam's post, if the rain is of sufficient intensity it may help to reduce the temperatures further due to evaporative cooling. Knife edge stuff and very marginal, however, somebody in our region may get lucky!

I'd love nothing more then some of the white stuff, it's about time. It's been ridiculously mild this winter so far!

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, Snoopie42 said:

Hi Daniel

I was thinking the same thing... The Amber warning doesn't quite reflect what is showing on the gust chart? If the gust chart was produced after the updated warning from earlier, then, you would think the amber warning would be extended further North (of London) on the next update? ......watch this space! 

Have a good day!

The mention of 60-70mph gusts through the capital is very rare event that should surely warrant an amber warming through a region of 8,000,000 people.

disruption & minor damage likely. I'd also expect the yellow wind warning to be expanded north the warnings by the MO tend to be lacklustre a bit behind the times to to speak. 

Enjoy your Sunday 

[Snoopie42]

6 minutes ago, AdamStorm7891 said:

Judging by most forecasts the strongest of the winds should have passed out into the North-Sea by the evening, but it depends where you're flying to. Just don't fly east unless you want to chase Imogen, I know she sounds attractive but I can assure you she won't be lol

She might be OK from a distance..LOL 

[Frosty hollows]

2 hours ago, Surrey said:

Certainly time to batten down the hatches once more while we open them for today!

I can't get over the consistency of runs in terms of this storm it was showing last week Monday so hats of to the models 

Still time for minor changes people of the coast take care overnight and tomorrow 

Max gust here yesterday according to a station at Heathrow was 51mph tomorrow could go over 60mph!

I'm to the west of Heathrow and we had gusts well in excess of that for most of the afternoon..recorded one gust of 61mph and one of 57mph. Local met backs this up. Surprisingly little damage done. Usual small branches down but apart from a horrific racket that was it. I'm expecting the same tomorrow  hereabouts from Imogen

[AdamStorm7891]

2 minutes ago, Snoopie42 said:

She might be OK from a distance..LOL 

....or perhaps when she blows the lights out, they always look better in the dark! Hahaha

[Snoopie42]

29 minutes ago, AdamStorm7891 said:

....or perhaps when she blows the lights out, they always look better in the dark! Hahaha

She's no looking too bad.....nice shape to her......maybe leave the light on! 

[AdamStorm7891]

5 minutes ago, Snoopie42 said:

She's no looking too bad.....nice shape to her......maybe leave the light on! 

Has there been any upgrades to the Amber warning zone yet?

[Snoopie42]

5 minutes ago, AdamStorm7891 said:

Has there been any upgrades to the Amber warning zone yet?

Not yet Adam. I think the met usually review again around 5pm? Will let you know once I have had an alert when there has been an update. As things stand, i would be very surprised if the amber boundary isn't located further North......

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Wind already picking up here yet again, certainly a rough night ahead and into tomorrow probably the strongest storm in a few years down here 

[Snoopie42]

3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Wind already picking up here yet again, certainly a rough night ahead and into tomorrow probably the strongest storm in a few years down here 

Hi Surrey. Is your girlfriend all better now? I've also noticed it getting gusty again, beautiful day though...The calm after one and before the other! Tomorrow is certainly going to be interesting, I'm a little excited to be honest! Our car park at work runs parallel to the River Wye with some pretty tall trees lining the bank.....won't be parking close to them, especially with the already sodden ground from yesterday evening / nights deluge! That being said I am glad I'm not using the motorways tomorrow! I was supposed to be travelling to Brighton first thing, but cancelled on Friday based upon what we were seeing on the charts.....looks to have been a good call!