Storm & Convective Discussion April 2016 Onwards

[ThundersnowDays]

 

2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Can't wait to see this Brighton cell on the radar.

The more you hope the more you get

Getting better on the radar and also in the sky - looks dark now to my South-East.

Edited April 13, 2016 by ThundersnowDays

[matt111]

Somethings incoming from the west. 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Yes the South is just starting to look interesting - nice timing too, if things kick off soon!

I didn't mean to get anyone's hopes up - looks like the tower I saw over Brighton way has faded away to scud - but still plenty of time for things to improve :-D

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Its like it's trying to but can't quite get there 

Sitting in living room watching this really isolated shower 

[William Grimsley]

What a lovely convective sky this evening on my Nest cam live stream: https://video.nest.com/live/Atmiip

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Brew it up

Edited April 13, 2016 by Surrey

[Greeny]

I hope someone has been chasing the storm currently over the Wash. Was looking quite severe at one point.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Look at that from this to this in what half hour?

[Azazel]

Went out for a little look about an hour ago. Shower tried to get going but just seemed to collapse and tear itself apart:( 

[William Grimsley]

10 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Look at that from this to this in what half hour?

There's a thunderstorm heading straight for you!

Edited April 13, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Chris K]

1 hour ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Can't wait to see this Brighton cell on the radar.

The more you hope the more you get

The Bristolian shield working it's magic so far  

[Spikecollie]

Enjoy what you get folks. I've had a great day of storms here in France. I've got my electricity back on again now and I'm going to cook and have a nice glass of wine! How bizarre that the sun comes out at nearly 2000...

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Tried the old sweep view 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Ahahhahahahaha! Was that it???

 

cloud fart.

totally rubbish

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

What I'll say to everyone in the south. No point getting your hopes up. They are saying more widespread storms tomorrow. This is what was said yesterday.

it will be the same long long long sloooowww build up with the only two storms in the usual places and then sporadic lightning nearby just when the sun goes down.

i hope I get proved wrong but it's just hard work looking forward to anything with these set ups. I'm sick of being patient all day. It's just boring!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Saying that there's a lot of rain over Woking still

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

What I'll say to everyone in the south. No point getting your hopes up. They are saying more widespread storms tomorrow. This is what was said yesterday.

it will be the same long long long sloooowww build up with the only two storms in the usual places and then sporadic lightning nearby just when the sun goes down.

i hope I get proved wrong but it's just hard work looking forward to anything with these set ups. I'm sick of being patient all day. It's just boring!

The GFS has been slowly downgrading storm risk every day this week.

Convective episodes sure ain't what they used to be! Been saying it for a while now, something's amiss.

Edited April 13, 2016 by CreweCold

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Few more shots from today. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Reports of a Funnel nr Bristol Airport.

From my area in Keynsham, grabbed two pictures of what either seems to be an inflow into the back of the storm, scud or a funnel cloud...

 

Edited April 13, 2016 by Ben Sainsbury

[William Grimsley]

Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

Reports of a Funnel nr Bristol Airport.

From my area in Keynsham, grabbed two pictures of what either seems to be an inflow into the storm, scud or a funnel cloud...

 

Where's the "storm" element? LOL.

[Ben Sainsbury]

9 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Where's the "storm" element? LOL.

Sounded better;)

Link:

 

Edited April 13, 2016 by Ben Sainsbury

[MP-R]

Living near Bristol airport myself, a heavy slow-moving downpour with very large raindrops just moved through, no thunder though. I didn't think we were going to see anything at all today, not even a shower, after what has been a largely fine and warm day.

[Allseasons-Si]

Nothing in this neck of the woods again but some nice cb's around,they just wouldn't cap

 

[Mapantz]

I think it has been a very promising start to the season even if the majority on here haven't seen anything. Many of us should be experienced enough to know that any thundery set up isn't guaranteed to deliver for any specific area. We've had a risk every day this week, not often that happens this early in to Spring, i'm quite content with that, and i've not had so much as a sniff of a storm!

[weather09]

Yep, always difficult to predict likelihood of storm activity in any given area.  Can only point out the risk, and provide reasoning as to why there's a risk. This week was always expected to have low-risk days, anyway, given the setup we're under, so no real disappointments, in all. Really like the pics of convection people have been posting this week.  

Tomorrow, near enough same as today (i.e. low risk), so doesn't warrant the detail.  One thing to note, however, is how low dewpoints were today across the bulk of the country - generally 2-4C looking at obs throughout the day. Perhaps a factor explaining the lack of deep convective activity well inland.  Tomorrow, looks like moisture will be slightly better - models predicting sfc DPs to 8-9C, tops. Not impressive by any means, but it makes the difference. That, together with heating and marked light, converging flow would across central parts suggests a heightened risk tomorrow.  GFS not keen on building the CAPE, but few 100j/kg a safe bet where heating is maximised. Euro4 keen to break out shower activity afternoon/evening period. We'll see.