Summer 2016

[markyo]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Still a good 6 to 7 weeks before any changes become noticeable though 

One can live in hope though of that wonderful return to not being woken up at a crazy hour by the sunshine bursting through your curtains! A sunrise is the best part of the day and is totally wasted in the summer months. Driving into work watching the beauty of the sun even on a semi cloudy day showing its hand for the first time just puts one in such a good mood. 

[summer blizzard]

Interestingly i did a little research just as a bit of fun to find some analogues..

The criteria were..

1) All Q3 months must see -MEI values

2) Sep must have a more negative value than July (to mirror the strengthening forecast)

3) One month at least must have a value of >-1 (a little bullish but models do suggest a fair rapidity to the advancing Nina). 

4) Must be a first year Nina (i.e. seen Nino or neutral/positive conditions before)

 

The years i found were..

1970

1973

1988

2007

2010

 

The picture they painted in July-September..

But the upcoming pattern looks nice i said (to which the analogues replied for June..)..

 

..

Small sample and one variable i know but that is a disconcerting picture. Nice June makes way to horrid July and August. 

 

From a CET point of view 80% of those years saw July 1C> than the 1981-2010 average and 40% saw the same with August.

 

[Matthew.]

Time will tell but I expect July to be the best Summer month. CET something like 

June 15.2dry, sunny

July 18.1 dry, sunny

August 18.0 cloudier later, wetter, thunderstorms later

Followed by a average September and for once in recent years a cool October

 

[Relativistic]

5 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Time will tell but I expect July to be the best Summer month. CET something like 

June 15.2dry, sunny

July 18.1 dry, sunny

August 18.0 cloudier later, wetter, thunderstorms later

Followed by a average September and for once in recent years a cool October

 

Do you realise that the Summer described above would qualify for the exceptional category, the joint 6th warmest (with 1846) in the entire record?

Edited May 28, 2016 by Relativistic

[summer blizzard]

Statistically speaking July and August have only produced 16 months with a CET of 18C> between them in the past century so we're not even remotely overdue, to get two in the same summer would put us a par with 1911. 1976 and 1995.

[Matthew.]

22 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Do you realise that the Summer described above would qualify for the exceptional category, the joint 6th warmest (with 1846) in the entire record?

I personally think the evidence is in favour of a great Summer season. I think this will be the best Summer of this decade and the warmest since 2006  +5.5 over the 61-90 average(#7) Am i correct in thinking 1983(#6) is +5.7 over the 61-90?

[cheese]

44 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

Do you realise that the Summer described above would qualify for the exceptional category, the joint 6th warmest (with 1846) in the entire record?

Well, given we had 1995 and 2006 nearly within a decade of one another and they were both two of the warmest on record, not to mention 2003 which also ranks highly as one of the warmest, I don't see it as unreasonable that another summer nearly as warm even warmer could turn up this year, or next. Unlikely, but possible. The UK has had a rash of record-breaking months or top 10 months in a variety of areas since 2006, whether it's driest, wettest, warmest or even coldest, we've had it all in the past decade. Just a shame the warmest anomalies have been outside summer for the most part, July 2013 excluded. 

Personally, not fussed about a very hot summer, just average will do me. Anything more would be a bonus.

Edited May 28, 2016 by cheese

[AderynCoch]

44 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Statistically speaking July and August have only produced 16 months with a CET of 18C> between them in the past century so we're not even remotely overdue, to get two in the same summer would put us a par with 1911. 1976 and 1995.

1976 didn't actually manage it. It's a very exclusive club.

[Matthew.]

Temps for the second week of June could touch 30c if the ECM is correct. The first hot spell may arrive this early especially if pressure to the east stalls the low to the Sw.

Edited May 28, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[weatherguru14]

30c??  Just wish we could get rid of this northerly in my location.. suppose to be about 20c.. doesnt feel warm at the moment!!

[markyo]

Feels lovely today,nice walk,car washed all at 11c, nice hazy sunshine,just about perfect.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

19 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

 I think this will be the best Summer of this decade and the warmest since 2006 

With a greeny high on the cards and a la-nina event I don't think we'll come anywhere near  

[Matthew.]

42 minutes ago, 40*C said:

With a greeny high on the cards and a la-nina event I don't think we'll come anywhere near  

Just looked at the bbc website for London to see potential temps for 7 June and even at this range there saying 23/15. Thats a Mean temp of 19c. I hope the warmth increases and spreads north with that greeny high diminishing

Edited May 29, 2016 by Matthew Wilson

[B87]

4 hours ago, markyo said:

Feels lovely today,nice walk,car washed all at 11c, nice hazy sunshine,just about perfect.

That would be nice, in January!

Need something seasonable at this time of year, and 11c would be very close to the record coldest afternoon at this time of year.

[cheese]

17C with sunshine here, a littler cooler than normal for late May into June, but nothing too out of the ordinary. Feels nice and pleasant outside.

On 3 June 2012 we had a max temp of 9C with all-day rain.. at least we can safely say there won't be a repeat of that this year.. although saying that, in early June 1995 we had a max temp of 11C with rain as well and we all know what happened in July and August.. so maybe a cold start to June is best! 

Edited May 29, 2016 by cheese

[B87]

On 27 May 2016 at 19:18, Matthew Wilson said:

Completely agree with June 76' and if August 95' was as sunny as August 76' then that aswell. I think i would struggle with all that mild in winter though would go for something fresher cleaner air, maybe winter of 2014/15 with polar Nw. 

August 1995 was hotter, sunnier and drier than August 1976.

[Methuselah]

TBH, after almost sixty years' looking for patterns, I have absolutely no idea what summer 2016 will provide. IOW, I'm 'certain' of nothing!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

1 hour ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Just looked at the bbc website for London to see potential temps for 7 June and even at this range there saying 23/15. Thats a Mean temp of 19c. I hope the warmth increases and spreads north with that greeny high diminishing

Well i hope so.  We are long overdue a proper heatwave with nationwide temps hitting 30C.  They seem to come every 13 or 14 years  - 1976, 1990, 2003 .....  

 

[markyo]

1 hour ago, B87 said:

That would be nice, in January!

Need something seasonable at this time of year, and 11c would be very close to the record coldest afternoon at this time of year.

This morning was just about perfect for getting out and about,come lunch much warmer,surely a day to suit everybody?

[NickMdx]

List of things that are better when it's 30'c.......

List of things that are worse - everything!

[cheese]

6 minutes ago, markyo said:

This morning was just about perfect for getting out and about,come lunch much warmer,surely a day to suit everybody?

It's a fine day, good for getting out and about - but I think most people would prefer slightly warmer weather. It still feels a tad nippy in the shade or when a breeze picks up. 

Edited May 29, 2016 by cheese

[markyo]

1 hour ago, cheese said:

It's a fine day, good for getting out and about - but I think most people would prefer slightly warmer weather. It still feels a tad nippy in the shade or when a breeze picks up. 

To be honest probably true,tad nippy i would agree with. Felt fresh  with a touch of blue sky for a change!

[Weather-history]

3 hours ago, B87 said:

August 1995 was hotter, sunnier and drier than August 1976.

Statistically, it is the greatest summer month in that it was sunniest, hottest and driest August on record. 

 

[AderynCoch]

23 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Temps for the second week of June could touch 30c if the ECM is correct.

If so we could see the 13th June hoodoo finally broken.

30C has never been officially recorded on that date.

 

[damianslaw]

My thoughts for what its worth, based on no particular signals etc, just feeling..

June - Overall the driest and sunniest month, lots of anticyclonic weather thanks to a weak jet, but no real injection of heat. Dry possibly very dry in the NW.

July - A unsettled month, with the typical NW-SE split in evidence, westerly airstream, but quite warm overall

August - Dullest and most unsettled of the three months, cyclonic conditions at times, very wet and quite cool.