Storm risk - Monday 9th May onwards

[alexisj9]

Getting my second shower here now, convective but very light, coming g up from the south west, falling from developing ac cas. 

[Boro Snow]

Well that was one hell of a downpour that just passed through, looks like a squall line on radar,  

[Supacell]

1 hour ago, William Grimsley said:

Not sure if I'm being optimistic here, but Sunday looks pretty decent for my area due to widespread torrential downpours and thunderstorms breaking out especially inland. Does anyone follow?

Showers and thunderstorms will be rather hit and miss tomorrow but your area looks to be placed in the risk zone along with a good proportion of England, Wales, Scotland and Western Ireland. Despite this broad risk zone I think a lot of places could miss the showers due to them being hit and miss and also slow moving. The instability (CAPE up to 700-800 j/kg on GFS charts) is there and so the showers that do develop could turn thundery. Steep lapse rates and cold air aloft could also lead to some of the showers producing hail and GFS shows hail of 1-2cm in diameter towards the south and west of the country. The fact that showers and storms will be slow moving makes chasing easier but could also lead to some places getting quite a deluge where others get nothing.

[weatherobsuk]

Rumble of thunder just now as the line of heavy showers passes over the NW.

[Chris.R]

 Looks rubbish for here tomorrow. Hardly any CAPE  and too much  Westerly component in the flow.  A better chance later in the week I think. Am I missing something rea tomorrow?

[NUT]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

 Looks rubbish for here tomorrow. Hardly any CAPE  and too much  Westerly component in the flow.  A better chance later in the week I think. Am I missing something rea tomorrow?

I was thinking some places might get something myself at the end of the week (keeps on being hinted at I think)

 

No showers here yet but there's a few lines of rain that do have storms in them. If not today then maybe something tomorrow for here

[Gordon Webb]

looks like some heavy echos on the radar maybe heading to wolverhampton area

as for tomorrow will be lot of dry weather around with a few heavy showers , not the storm fest it is suggested to be since showers will be slow moving you'll do well if you miss them and if you don't well you get the idea

[William Grimsley]

2 hours ago, Supacell said:

Showers and thunderstorms will be rather hit and miss tomorrow but your area looks to be placed in the risk zone along with a good proportion of England, Wales, Scotland and Western Ireland. Despite this broad risk zone I think a lot of places could miss the showers due to them being hit and miss and also slow moving. The instability (CAPE up to 700-800 j/kg on GFS charts) is there and so the showers that do develop could turn thundery. Steep lapse rates and cold air aloft could also lead to some of the showers producing hail and GFS shows hail of 1-2cm in diameter towards the south and west of the country. The fact that showers and storms will be slow moving makes chasing easier but could also lead to some places getting quite a deluge where others get nothing.

Ahh, right. Thanks, Supacell. I may well be chasing tomorrow but only locally, lets hope they're thundery otherwise it's not worth it.

[William Grimsley]

First signs of developments over France starting to move NE... Why, does this always have to happen and go east all the time, I have no clue...

Edited May 21, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Ellozee]

Looking forward to this evening, fingers so crossed they're almost broken!

[Richard Taylor]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-36350218

Short footage of a squall that hit Nairn, near Inverness, earlier today (Courtesy BBC). 

 

[William Grimsley]

Things really starting to kick off in the English Channel, could this be the day when the English Channel no longer kills everything?!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

22 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

First signs of developments over France starting to move NE... Why, does this always have to happen and go east all the time, I have no clue...

Because of the steering winds aloft and available energy to feed off that's stored on the French landmass! Always happens 9 times out of 10. 

[William Grimsley]

27 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Because of the steering winds aloft and available energy to feed off that's stored on the French landmass! Always happens 9 times out of 10. 

Sorry, it was a joke. I do know why they are going east, seems ironic. My only hope currently is tomorrow and the thundery plume at the end of next week.

I would say those thunderstorms could develop into an MCS not before long...

Edited May 21, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Supacell]

I wonder if the storms coming across the Channel will survive over land once they get here? They look to be heading directly for the East Sussex/Kent coastline and on this track will likely head into East Anglia eventually. 

[Harry]

So tempted to head down to the east Kent coast....grrrrr!!!

[William Grimsley]

2 minutes ago, Harry said:

So tempted to head down to the east Kent coast....grrrrr!!!

I would, these thunderstorms are very intense!

[10 Days Away]

Chilli Con Carne and off to Camber in 30 mins.... come on !

[Harry]

Getting ready to move (although I'm not permitted to go alone in case I look skyward too much)...frustrating as I just want to go lol!!!

[Cableguy]

Looks like it's going to go straight up the Dover straits, would be be very surprised if it makes landfall at all

[William Grimsley]

Just now, Cableguy said:

Looks like it's going to go straight up the Dover straits, would be be very surprised if it makes landfall at all

If you look closely, they're going towards Hastings...

[Cableguy]

2 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

If you look closely, they're going towards Hastings...

No chance, but time will tell

[Mapantz]

Get straight down to Dungeness, right this minute!   

[MR CB]

Looks like the daughter cells to the West in the Channel may clip me later - main mother cell ahead must be for the Kent coast. Gonna be a close one!

[Summer Sun]

Moderate chance of thunderstorms

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 21 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 22 May 2016

ISSUED 17:48 UTC Sat 21 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris

Scattered showers are likely to turn heavy and thundery across Ireland and into parts of Britain during the afternoon on Saturday. Cold air aloft and afternoon surface heating will allow Surface to 500mb lapse rates to reaching into the lower 40s across Ireland, where the most frequent and widespread lightning is likely to occur during the afternoon. Lapse rates are less across Britain, but CAPE values of 300-500j/kg could allow for a few showers to turn thundery there in the afternoon. 

Saturday evening and overnight a plume of unstable air will move out of France pushing an area of showers and thunderstorms northeastwards. There is still a lot of uncertainty about the track of these storms, and it appears most of them will stay offshore, however it is close enough to include a risk. It should be noted that if these storms do move across Kent and up the east coast of East Anglia they would likely require an upgrade to SLGT as they could be quite electrically active. The situation will be monitored later this afternoon and through the early evening. 

http://www.convective.weatherquest.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-05-21

Update

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 21 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 22 May 2016

ISSUED 18:57 UTC Sat 21 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris

UPDATE: To include numerous thunderstorms crossing the Channel, likely affect the Kent and East Sussex coast, and southeast England. Uncertainty still remains on if these will impact the East Anglian coastline into the evening. 

Edited May 21, 2016 by Summer Sun