Storm risk - Monday 9th May onwards

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

It wasn't wasted Will! A little birdy told me that the fish loved it! Until they were eaten 

[<<Ryan>>]

Just got back from a trip from Hastings -> Dungeness. Wow! 
Beautiful skies, rainbows, lots of lightning and distant thunder. Will try upload a couple of pics in a moment... Here, hope they come out okay!

Edited May 21, 2016 by <<Ryan>>

[Hodgheg]

59 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Well, I have to say it was nice to see Kent and the English Channel getting hit hard by lightning tonight! As others have mentioned, it's a shame that most of the lightning was "wasted" on the sea! LOL!

It's just building up for the summer. That's How the weather works see lol

[William Grimsley]

4 minutes ago, John Hodgson said:

It's just building up for the summer. That's How the weather works see lol

Yes, this reminds me of 2014 very well, oh and Evening thunder isn't home like in 2014 so it's bound to happen!

[Harry]

Echo what <<Ryan>> said - some fantastic cloudscapes and gorgeous lightning; deep peels of thunder from positive strikes in the channel and some closer rolls from some anvil crawlers. Couldn't get my camera in time to photo some gorgeous mammatus cloud. Sat on the sea wall at St Mary's Bay for a while a just watched a gorgeous scene. Here's some pics.

[Mesoscale]

Nice storm over Paris right now.

http://www.earthcam.com/world/france/paris/?cam=eiffeltower_hd

[Mapantz]

Nice pics @<<Ryan>> and @Harry  

[Ellozee]

21 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Nice pics @<<Ryan>> and @Harry  

Yeah really great stuff there. Late to the party in many ways as I had to wait for camera battery to charge, missed capturing the best of the lightning. Here's a couple though.

Edited May 21, 2016 by Ellozee
formatting

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Was a bit of a trek home but I got a few good shots:

 

[Weather-history]

10 hours ago, Chris.R said:

 Really, I apologise then I  must've missed it. nothing on Blitzortung  either. 

There was a single lightning flash detected on Blitzortung, it was to the north of Warrington. I saw your post about no lightning with 100 miles and there was the sferic,  a few minutes later  

Interesting how that area of showers developed.

 

[Chris.R]

 I'll be keeping a proper look out for lightning today  although I'm not expecting anything nearby. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Hmm today and

tomorrow (for central eastern and south East England) 

Today (on phone so bare with)

The more thundry conditions are making there way in from the west today, ideally the best thing for everyone to have a chance is it moves in time with peak heating during the day

@William Grimsley you look in a decent spot if you can get enough warming going certainly models agree something breaking out over you, then moving East.

Central and eastern England right up and down the country as long as any pesky cloud burns back which in sat it certainly looks like it is, then it's a case of in the right place or not. the euro4 and nnm both break out wide spread showers if these turn thundery we have to wait and see. 

Good chance of someone catching a few rumbles if I had a sweet spot though I would draw a circle round IOW with a 30 mile radius. 

Also North Devon southern Wales seems a good bet too.

Then onto tomorrow with high pressure building in from the west, this will kill any shower chances Monday but will turn to be a pleasant day. Out East though we still have the unstable air hanging around looking at the charts it wants to break some Beefy showers out down the spine of the country and south East areas. (depends on cloud amounts though as any residual cloud left over from any showers today could hamper it)  

Sweet spot Monday for me would be around Milton Keynes prehaps a touch further East.

Sun is out here good luck all

[Gordon Webb]

the showers the met office / BBC progged for 9am over wales and SW moving E are already in that location and moving E as of 7.25am so seems a little early than expected hope the shpwers I get (if any) hold off for a few hours as I'm going to a car boot sale this morning and want to stay dry

[Supacell]

Encouraging forecast from Estofex if it is storms you want:

... France, UK, Ireland and Scotland ...

Scattered to widespread diurnal driven DMC occurs beneath the base of the upper trough. 400-800 J/kg SBCAPE and 10-15 m/s DLS (especially along the periphery of the trough) support strong thunderstorms with marginal hail and gusty winds. An isolated large hail event is possible and also an isolated tornado/funnel event due to augmented LLCAPE. A general decrease in coverage and strength of thunderstorm activity is forecast during the night although isolated thunderstorms may occur over coastal or offshore areas.

www.estofex.org

 

[Chris.R]

If there's any lightning northwest of 53n, 2w i'll be  very surprised. Hardly even 100J/kg CAPE for my area. 

[Gordon Webb]

23 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Encouraging forecast from Estofex if it is storms you want:

... France, UK, Ireland and Scotland ...

Scattered to widespread diurnal driven DMC occurs beneath the base of the upper trough. 400-800 J/kg SBCAPE and 10-15 m/s DLS (especially along the periphery of the trough) support strong thunderstorms with marginal hail and gusty winds. An isolated large hail event is possible and also an isolated tornado/funnel event due to augmented LLCAPE. A general decrease in coverage and strength of thunderstorm activity is forecast during the night although isolated thunderstorms may occur over coastal or offshore areas.

www.estofex.org

 

I would expect the potential for the more stronger elements of the forecast weather to be mainly over france and maybe s england be very surprised to see scotland get the same as further south as for current weather seems breezier than forecast

Edit - just noticed that scotland is mentioned seperate from the uk do we have an SNP member or supporter working at estofex? 

Edited May 22, 2016 by Gordon Webb

[Summer Sun]

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 22 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Mon 23 May 2016

ISSUED 07:50 UTC Sun 22 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris

A large-scale 500mb trough with associated cold pool aloft will spread eastwards across the British Isles through Sunday. This combined with daytime heating will produce 1000-500mb lapse rates of in the vicinity of 40C and CAPE values of 500-700j/kg. Light westerly winds will mean that showers are fairly slow-moving and could produce some locally heavy downpours and hail up to 1cm in diameter. Shear values will weaken through the day, but be a little higher in eastern Britain. This combined with local low level convergence in eastern areas (Lincolnshire and western portions of East Anglia) into the early evening could produce some localised flash flooding. Much of this area is on the cusp between ISOL and SLGHT, and a few areas  may be upgraded later today as the situation evolves. 

http://www.convective.weatherquest.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-05-22

[Gordon Webb]

17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 22 May 2016 - 05:59 UTC Mon 23 May 2016

ISSUED 07:50 UTC Sun 22 May 2016

ISSUED BY: Chris

A large-scale 500mb trough with associated cold pool aloft will spread eastwards across the British Isles through Sunday. This combined with daytime heating will produce 1000-500mb lapse rates of in the vicinity of 40C and CAPE values of 500-700j/kg. Light westerly winds will mean that showers are fairly slow-moving and could produce some locally heavy downpours and hail up to 1cm in diameter. Shear values will weaken through the day, but be a little higher in eastern Britain. This combined with local low level convergence in eastern areas (Lincolnshire and western portions of East Anglia) into the early evening could produce some localised flash flooding. Much of this area is on the cusp between ISOL and SLGHT, and a few areas  may be upgraded later today as the situation evolves. 

http://www.convective.weatherquest.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-05-22

Is lincolnshire attempting to reclaim mantle for storms in uk

 

[Supacell]

My plan was to chase today but it seems some forecasts favor the west whilst others favor the east. Wind convergence looks stronger further east as does DLS but CAPE looks stronger further west. I think I will await the 06z!

[Stuart]

let see if we can get our 2nd storm the year had a weeee storm on sat afternoon

[William Grimsley]

Yes, looks good here for today, but as others have said, the forecasts are very different from source to source, we shall just have to see! I will be able to chase today, but N Devon's a little far for my liking...

Just seen some heavy showers are rapidly developing to my west. Hehe.

Euro4 looking good for my area later:

Edited May 22, 2016 by William Grimsley

[Mapantz]

A risk of showers bubbling up anywhere today..

 

The sun came out here for a while and it was perfectly still. It didn't take long for the cloud to bubble up though- a few dark ones to the South/South-west.

[Harry]

Shame I'm at the low end of potential today as some good diurnal heating underway here.

I suspect storms will be more isolated that Estofex is going for, but then that's half the excitement, trying to second guess models/forecasters 

[BrickFielder]

 Fairly tricky to forecast what will happen storm wise today as there is a mixture of scenarios going on and its all a bit marginal.
 First off we have a marked long wave trough stretching down to the south.

 Fairly tricky to forecast what will happen storm wise today as there is a mixture of scenarios going on and its all a bit marginal.
 First off we have a marked long wave trough stretching down to the south.

 

 Satellite shows some short convective lines moving into the west, while met office fax charts suggest a surface trough of moisture moving across the UK. Aloft there is still a strong jet until late on although cloud tops may not tap really tap into this. It might however make clouds tops stream off to the north making any storms in the south of a line a little stronger. In addition we have some forecast convergence zones developing over the UK particularly in the east later on in the day. These are more likely to create pulse like storms.

 

 There is a slight problem though in that despite moderate mid level lapse rates there is very little surface based Instability (Cape). Which means the moisture is not really up high enough (dew points) for strong storm development. Temperatures boosted by urban effects might help a little but it still looks marginal.

 

 Wind Sheer  what there is of it is not forecast to be at the right level for rotational storms, however there is a risk of weak spout like funnels developing near convergence zones and possibly where storms overlap an outflow boundary. Higher cloud bases might limit this.

 

 Key areas I think will be parts of the midlands and south mid afternoon moving to the east particularly London and East Anglia late afternoon where there might just be a hint of a low level jet.  (925hpa wind).

 

 Overall there is some marked risk today mainly from  localised flooding and hail, but forecasts today are not really suggesting a classic strong storm potential setup.

 

Edited May 22, 2016 by BrickFielder

[Spikecollie]

I flew into Paris this morning and the skies were,  and still are, very dramatic with great cloudscapes aloft. I've just had a walk around outside the station and the darkness of the clouds is amazing. A total contrast to Nuremberg where we were sitting outside until after midnight. OH had t-storms in Limousin last night. Might catch one before I leave Paris or on the train down.