Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 11/06/16 onwards

[Spikecollie]

Excellent cloudscapes and an even better carrot. Trust it has been munched...

[lassie23]

2 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Excellent cloudscapes and an even better carrot. Trust it has been munched...

Thanks Spikey, I literally have just eaten it now and it tastes sweeter than the supermarket ones.

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 02 Jul 2016 - 05:59 UTC Sun 03 Jul 2016

ISSUED 20:03 UTC Fri 01 Jul 2016

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough will continue to pivot eastwards across the British Isles on Saturday, the axis well to the east by time of peak heating. Nonetheless, cold air aloft and diurnal heating combined should yield 200-500 Jkg-1 MLCAPE, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing. DLS will increase from the southwest through the afternoon as the upper trough clears eastwards, but for much of the time shear will be weak to modest at best, limiting cell organisation to a certain extent. Hail locally to 1.5cm in diameter is possible from any stronger cells, perhaps with some gusty winds.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2016-07-02

[Weather-history]

 

[Fiona Robertson]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

Here are some cloudscapes from the recent storm activity and a random carrot grown in my garden

It's a lovely carrot, no need to be sad or apologetic. It's one of the best carrots I've ever seen. It's very pretty. Well done, you! What are you going to call him? I thought it might be the grocer's equivalent of a pine cone for predicting the weather at first. Nice clouds as well

[Ben Sainsbury]

Thunderstorm Forecast for 2nd July 2016: Slight Risk of Thunderstorms! (Yellow Box Valid as long as Storms do Form!) Best CAPE and DLS Overlap yet again!

Edited July 1, 2016 by Ben Sainsbury

[lassie23]

1 hour ago, Fiona Robertson said:

It's a lovely carrot, no need to be sad or apologetic. It's one of the best carrots I've ever seen. It's very pretty. Well done, you! What are you going to call him? I thought it might be the grocer's equivalent of a pine cone for predicting the weather at first. Nice clouds as well

Thanks for the carrot compliments, it's a very photogenic carrot, name suggestions welcome, maybe i'll open a name my carrot  thread

[Fiona Robertson]

25 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Thanks for the carrot compliments, it's a very photogenic carrot, name suggestions welcome, maybe i'll open a name my carrot  thread

Shame it isn't a stick of celery, you could call it Supercell-ery

On a weather-related note, the central belt of Scotland got very little in the way of thunder today. The sky was just about the most promising it's been, but no luck. Any chance of a bit more wind shear for tomorrow?

[Supacell]

It looks like being a good day for some thunderstorms to develop today.

Generally the risk area looks to be widespread across the UK with anywhere having a risk of seeing something. However, my attention is drawn to areas around the East Midlands, Lincolnshire and EA. The GFS charts show a cross over of CAPE around 500-800j/kg and DLS (Deep layer shear) around 30-60 knts. If a storm can grow tall enough it may take advantage of this and there could be some storm organisation.

   

GFS also shows a tornado risk for this afternoon in above mentioned areas.

ELT's are low (around -40c) which, combined with the aforementioned CAPE, means any storms that do develop could contain hail and quite frequent lightning.

Other than the slight risk of a tornado I do not see today being a severe thunderstorm risk day. Parameters would need to come together better and be more pronounced for that. However, I do see today being a day of sunshine and numerous showers, of which some should become thunderstorms. Anywhere is at risk from a rumble or a flash but the highest risk is going to be the areas described above. With fairly fast winds blowing today at all levels the showers and storms will be moving fairly swiftly and so won't hang around like those of a couple of weeks ago and so the rainfall totals unlikely to match the deluges of a couple of weeks ago.

Charts from www.lightningwizard.com/maps

[William Grimsley]

@Supacell, do you think everywhere has a risk as down here it doesn't look particularly convective...

[Supacell]

50 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

@Supacell, do you think everywhere has a risk as down here it doesn't look particularly convective...

I  would not want to rule out something anywhere today but the risk increases the further east you go. This being said I would say the risk around the SW is low at best I am afraid.

[William Grimsley]

3 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I  would not want to rule out something anywhere today but the risk increases the further east you go. This being said I would say the risk around the SW is low at best I am afraid.

Thought so, there's a few showers around now but none of them look good whatsoever.

[Richard Taylor]

We had some lightning in the region yesterday, and more of the same is forecast today, likely in similar areas to yesterday. Here in the city itself we had some heavy showers, especially tea-time/early evening, but no lightning over us (it was all to the N).

[The PIT]

Once this band of showers struggling to get over the Pennines goes through it looks fairly clear behind them on the radar. So could be a sunny mostly dry afternoon. As ever these things can change plenty of radar watching to come.

[Greeny]

Convection looking good here with a few towers around. On a visual note the potential is definitely around here today.

[William Grimsley]

Quite convective skies here to say how rubbish the charts look, may get a few heavy downpours soon, not expecting any to be electrified though.

[The PIT]

Drizzle showers here some more showers have formed so it's looks the pattern for the day. Light showers.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

That cell entering West London with the bright echo just passed right over me, torrential rain no thunder though.

 

Note though the wind, really potent gusts of wind

[The PIT]

First thundery showers in the South east just had a brief heavier shower here that brought the total to 0.2mm.

[tempesta]

Lovely heavy shower with a few rumbles in Epsom - seemed to pick up as it passed over. From my vantage point almost looks bowed shaped

Edited July 2, 2016 by tempesta

[Polar Maritime]

In Sheffield just dinning in Pizza Express.. Short showers passing from time to time with a few sunny spells sneaking through for good measure.

 

[Windblade]

OK, so posting this on my mobile as I'm out on the bike right now near brands hatch way. Had very dark skies approach from the west and can see some cells behind then which I've uploaded below. Got moderate - heavy rain at the moment so dived in the pub to hide! I see the cells have produced lightning in the past hour on netweathers radar. And yes, did buy some cherries! £2.50 a bag for homegrown natural cherries! Bargain!

[Delka]

2 bright flashes and 7 rumbles in total half hour ago along with brief heavy rain! Sunny again now but an even darker cloud approaching and nearly overhead

[matt111]

Looks very dark to my south. 

[William Grimsley]

Looks like the SE has taken off big time, was not expecting that!