Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Ali1977]

Doesn't end up like the ECM, but I still feel it stepped in that direction. And looking at the ECM ensemble average the Op had plenty of support - hard to think it will happen without the METO onboard in their longer range though.

Edited November 2, 2016 by Ali1977

[weirpig]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Doesn't end up like the ECM, but I still feel it stepped in that direction. And looking at the ECM ensemble average the Op had plenty of support - hard to think it will happen without the METO onboard in their longer range though.

It has Ali   I think a couple of ensembles might start to show a Scandi high   we shall see.

[Nick B]

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

GFS 06Z - massive move towards the ECM in my opinion. A little bit of disruption around T168 (traditionally GFS op is later on the disruption radar than the ECM op) - low heights stay more significant over Europe and by T192 there's nearly a meet-up of cold between NW and SE - cold continental air still over the SE, and the milder uppers quickly being squeezed out in the middle:

not breathtaking uppers by this time but certainly not mild.

I think the move in this direction is one to be looking for if you're searching for lasting cold.  Lasting cold for the UK as a whole will be unlikely without reduced heights over Western/Central Europe.

As I logged on while reading this page it opened up the first page in the thread... where folks were discussing the likelihood of 30C being reached.  Not very long ago...

[Spah1]

0Z has a lump of vortex over Greenland at 240hrs

6Z has it further East

Hopefully this trend will continue. 

 

Edited November 2, 2016 by Spah1

[bluearmy]

The stronger Atlantic jet coming closer in the extended eps (and earlier on the traditionally more progressive ops!) 

interesting to see if we can throw up a ridge ahead of any troughing to deflect the jet se and put us on the cold side as per the ecm 00z op today 

mid lat high just to our west looking more and more likely for period approaching mid month and the AO forecast going more neutral with each suite !

[Zakos]

No sign of Atlantic conditions returning to the UK to my eyes.

 Blocking in the Atlantic going nowhere - both models keep a blocked Atlantic until day 10. Both also maintain low heights over central Europe

GFS height anomaly at +276 shows that any depressions that affect the British isles must first travel over the top of the Atlantic block.

Right up to +384, the Atlantic remains solidly blocked.

GFS and ECM quite different for Europe, however the theme of a very blocked Atlantic remains unabated.

They both have the UK under the influence of high pressure, with any mobility coming from the North or East, with any mobile westerly patterns being brief in duration.

 

Edited November 2, 2016 by Zakos

[Ravelin]

No ECM-like Scandanavian high on the GFS 06Z, but a repeating pattern in FI.

t264   t384

Probably more importantly, as @Spah1said, any lump of purple that forms over Greenland doesn't seem to stay there for more than a frame or two.

[karlos1983]

Fairly certain that this warming wasn't showing on the 00z GFS

[weirpig]

The differences  with the vortex at 120 is quite stark between the ECM and Gfs    with a tightly knitted Depression moving out of southern greenland

Edited November 2, 2016 by weirpig

[Ali1977]

33 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Fairly certain that this warming wasn't showing on the 00z GFS

SSW incoming looking at that, and reading the Strat thread.  That should make for a very interesting DEC - hopefully.  The FI GEFS charts are also back to throwing up some interesting eye Candy with the PV once again hammered into pieces on many Perbs!!

Edited November 2, 2016 by Ali1977

[Zakos]

Flow of WAA into the canadian arctic also shows no signs of abating, which can only be a good thing as we head into winter.

+102

+174

cold air beings to pool over Greenland on the 9th, however, the majority of the Canadian Arctic remains anomalously warm

 Within 5 days, the cold pool is removed from Greenland.

As others have pointed out, there is little sign that the PV will form robustly over Greenland.

[SMU]

Morning all -

So x2 days on & the slider is very evident in the Euros today extending the cold on the ECM to day 10-

'Traditionally in this pattern & evolution the UKMO > ECM with the GFS flapping around with atlantic solutions until the Scandi high appears in one of its runs- flat at first before rising to a higher amplitude each run -

Normal catch up period 24-48 hours

odds on the above 2-1 fav euros, 10-1 GFS flatter solution.....

S

Edited November 2, 2016 by Steve Murr

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

SSW incoming looking at that, and reading the Strat thread.  That should make for a very interesting DEC - hopefully.

I'm far far far from knowledgeable when it comes to the Strat, although that's no SSW showing, it does tie in quite nicely with some of the images seen in the Strat thread alluding to the possibility of a SSW by the end of November. one to watch.

[karlos1983]

I'll take P20 of the GEFS please 

[weirpig]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I'll take P20 of the GEFS please 

Nah   ive always been a 7 kind a guy 

[SteveB]

1 hour ago, Zakos said:

Flow of WAA into the canadian arctic also shows no signs of abating, which can only be a good thing as we head into winter.

+102

+174

cold air beings to pool over Greenland on the 9th, however, the majority of the Canadian Arctic remains anomalously warm

 Within 5 days, the cold pool is removed from Greenland.

As others have pointed out, there is little sign that the PV will form robustly over Greenland.

What's clear to me from the above charts is a complete state of flux in the Northern hemisphere, completely different from the norm. Until things settle down, then expect some wild swings in the model outputs

[Frosty.]

5 hours ago, winterof79 said:

 

Meanwhile it will be cold for the foreseeable.

Judging by the GEFS 6z mean, it certainly will be cold, especially through this weekend and early next week. Further ahead its all about the ebb and flow of high pressure to the southwest and low pressure to the north / northeast. I get the impression we could have some polar / arctic maritime outbreaks during the phases where the high pushes further west..it's a lot better potentially for coldies ( the majority) than the same time last year which had a mood of growing despair as winter 2015 / 16 loomed but this year I'm cautiously optimistic that we will have a winter this time around, and hopefully a very good one to make up for previous disappointments! 

Edited November 2, 2016 by Frosty.

[fromey]

2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

SSW incoming looking at that, and reading the Strat thread.  That should make for a very interesting DEC - hopefully.  The FI GEFS charts are also back to throwing up some interesting eye Candy with the PV once again hammered into pieces on many Perbs!!

This was posted by Matt Hugo on Twitter earlier 

[Nouska]

3 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Doesn't end up like the ECM, but I still feel it stepped in that direction. And looking at the ECM ensemble average the Op had plenty of support - hard to think it will happen without the METO onboard in their longer range though.

Yes, plenty of ensemble support for an easterly but swift divergence after day ten which, is only to be expected.

[Frosty.]

Looking closer at the GEFS 6z mean beyond the cold weekend and first half of next week. High pressure to the southwest becomes more influential so we would see an increase of fog and frost during the T+240 period but even so, there are a few perturbations showing cold shots from the nw / n and around mid month a greater chance of opening up the floodgates to Pm / Am incursions..so I don't think there will be a shortage of frosts this month and some of us could see wintry ppn at times, especially in the north and on high ground.

[Mucka]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning all -

So x2 days on & the slider is very evident in the Euros today extending the cold on the ECM to day 10-

'Traditionally in this pattern & evolution the UKMO > ECM with the GFS flapping around with atlantic solutions until the Scandi high appears in one of its runs- flat at first before rising to a higher amplitude each run -

Normal catch up period 24-48 hours

odds on the above 2-1 fav euros, 10-1 GFS flatter solution.....

S

Ha, that's what I like about you Steve, always all in and detractors be damned.

Hindsight is a beautiful and appreciated thing but second guessing the output and predicting potential scenarios not yet modeled is just another opportunity to be proved wrong - that's just forum life I guess and overall we get a good mix of different personalities from the sensible and cautious to the rabid cold fans (Hello) to the doom merchants to the borderline trolls.

The slider scenario is the trend at the moment and even if it ultimately fails to maintain a cold flow over the UK it will keep the continent free of sweeping westerlies being predicted by GFS yesterday and the pattern amplified for the foreseeable. That would be good enough for me at this time of year.

Also, it makes the model watching so much more "fun"

 

 

 

[knocker]

16 minutes ago, Mucka said:

The slider scenario is the trend at the moment and even if it ultimately fails to maintain a cold flow over the UK it will keep the continent free of sweeping westerlies being predicted by GFS yesterday and the pattern amplified for the foreseeable. That would be good enough for me at this time of year.

Also, it makes the model watching so much more "fun"

 

Purely for clarification purposes and so we all know what is being discussed, what is  the definition of slider in the context of how it's used in this thread? Thanks

Edited November 2, 2016 by knocker

[bluearmy]

Good job the para ecm wasn't the op or Steve would have been uncontrollable !!

more an undercut than a slider and then low heading back west towards uk from our east before the run ends with a potential rinse and repeat 

scandi high in situ though it tends to slip back towards w Russia with ridging west  

Edited November 2, 2016 by bluearmy

[karlos1983]

Presumably a low that disrupts and "slides" under high pressure?

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Purely for clarification purposes and so we all know what is being discussed, what is  the definition of slider in the context of how it's used in this thread? Thanks

It's where the trough disrupts against the block and slides se against rather than heading through it.