Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[Frosty.]

Anyone fancy some mid october warmth? The GEFS 00z perturbations show some support for the op with temps reaching between 19/21c which would be very pleasant indeed for mid/late October.

[SMU]

Well well - a backtrack of sorts from the models today - lots of blocking to the NE still - however the ECM allows this to move  into a position that creates a sharp southerly flow-

late warmth still an option on the table - which most would enjoy !

[Frosty.]

Yes the Ecm 00z would do wonders for knockers daffs

Good support from the Gfs / Ecm 00z for a significant warm up, what's not to like about these charts? even the cold mafia (whoever they are) shouldn't complain!

And as for Sidney..he's never been happier

Edited October 8, 2016 by Frosty.

[blizzard81]

On 05/10/2016 at 20:07, blizzard81 said:

Could be another plume post day 10 if the ECM 12z is anywhere near accurate. Will be very interesting to see the post day 10 ensembles later on to see if there is any sign of a warm up as we enter the second half of October.

Well, 3 days on from my post above and this warm up looks to be firming up now. I wouldn't mind a bit of indian summer prior to the harsh winter ahead. It's happened quite a few times in the past :-)

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

 prior to the harsh winter ahead. 

What makes you think it's going to be a harsh winter?

And yes, it looks like another taste of warmth on the way, 6z looks good! maybe one last BBQ even!

Edited October 8, 2016 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z shows temperatures on the rise as we get to mid-month

[Matthew.]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Well well - a backtrack of sorts from the models today - lots of blocking to the NE still - however the ECM allows this to move  into a position that creates a sharp southerly flow-

late warmth still an option on the table - which most would enjoy !

Yes much prefer the ECM outcome which I would think would bring back sunshine like Monday and tuesdays SE flow. Hope it's right. The heights have moved around a lot though, hopefully stick to central europe

[blizzard81]

43 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

What makes you think it's going to be a harsh winter?

And yes, it looks like another taste of warmth on the way, 6z looks good! maybe one last BBQ even!

A little tongue in cheek Frosty ;-)

[Frosty.]

Well, the Gfs 6z shows a marked temperature contrast from north to south, especially by the end of the run and there are hints of an Arctic maritime incursion and even some snow across the scottish highlands with a real standoff between a mass of bottled up arctic air and tropical maritimes covering the south. It's far from dull model watching!

In the meantime, the scandi high rules supreme but from later next week a trough digs under the block and gradually forces the high into retreating NE which is followed by some pleasant warmth for the south at times but through low res northern uk in particular becomes noticeably colder.

[legritter]

Well looking at current charts and it seems like high pressure still in control but a lowering of pressure to our south and west .

I saw a swear word mentioned this morning ,european Slug ,please dont temp fate , next we will have Winters over . I do feel that with current charts and current pattern yes we could see a warm period in the medium outlook but as we are all aware this could suddenly flip ,but as others have mentioned an interesting Model discussion ,on planet earths best weather forum by far ,cheers gang catch you all up this evening ,.

[Faronstream]

Looks like the Atlantic will return from mid month and forward for at least some short time, then hopefully the high pressures from Russia will return into December

[Dancerwithwings]

1 hour ago, Faronstream said:

Looks like the Atlantic will return from mid month and forward for at least some short time, then hopefully the high pressures from Russia will return into December

 

Cfs v2 seems to think so, looks cold for your location and the UK not doing to bad either 

Edited October 8, 2016 by Dancerwithwings

[Frosty.]

25 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

 

Cfs v2 seems to think so, looks cold for your location and the UK not doing to bad either 

Well, wouldn't that make a lovely change from last December's blowtorch southerlies and severe flooding!

[swfc]

45 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

 

Cfs v2 seems to think so, looks cold for your location and the UK not doing to bad either 

when was this issued?

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

when was this issued?

Yesterday

[knocker]

Still a realistic view from the woodshed

[Frosty.]

40 minutes ago, knocker said:

Still a realistic view from the woodshed

Realistic ..you're havin a laff

Edited October 8, 2016 by Frosty.

[Mucka]

Both UKMO and GFS have the Atlantic trough pushing further SE and disrupting so any plume of especially warm air is pushed further East into the continent.

The UK would still be on the mild side but with more chance of unsettled weather encroaching from the West.

 

GFS still has the SE catching it though, get the BBQ out.

 

I was just thinking of the, "if only it were winter" sentiments of a couple of days ago, I would be crying in my frosties if such strong and promising HLB ended up giving us a super mild feed from the SW in Winter.

Edited October 8, 2016 by Mucka

[Midlands Ice Age]

38 minutes ago, knocker said:

Still a realistic view from the woodshed

Knocker..

If this happens you do realise that your woodshed will be set on fire!  (nuts and all)

MIA

[simshady]

2 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Knocker..

If this happens you do realise that your woodshed will be set on fire!  (nuts and all)

MIA

Will Sydney be in it too? And the Daffs?

[Captain Shortwave]

Hmm this warm southerly solution during the 7-10 day period seems to be cropping up on all of the operational now, that said ensemble guidance is pretty weak with a mix of stronger Euro ridges and more mobile set ups on offer.

   

Low twenties certainly on the table if this comes off. Perhaps strange to think that this October is very much following last years effort, it means nothing longer terms as whilst UK conditions are comparable that certainly isn't the case across the rest of the world.

Not overly fond of the idea of barbecued squirrel, maybe not what the discussion should be about

Edited October 8, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, simshady said:

Will Sydney be in it too? And the Daffs?

It was the realistic part that got me, how can anything be realistic over 12 weeks ahead, possible yes, realistic..= totally misleading.

[Midlands Ice Age]

4 minutes ago, simshady said:

Will Sydney be in it too? And the Daffs?

 

The daffs will be in full bloom in the garden by then!

Sydney strikes me as a cool guy.

He will be able to sense the onset of warmth and go into the woods looking for a mate!!

MIA

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

The daffs will be in full bloom in the garden by then!

Sydney strikes me as a cool guy.

He will be able to sense the onset of warmth and go into the woods looking for a mate!!

MIA

It can be mild all winter in Cornwall for all I care, as long as the rest of the uk gets some cold and snow.

[Dancerwithwings]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Still a realistic view from the woodshed

Emmm.....Realistically there's more chance of this happening to the English Channel.