Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016

[knocker]

Indeed this is so. The ecm has the Atlantic trough fighting to stop too much retrogression resulting in the UK staying under the umbrella of the HP but with a more southerly wind component resulting in temps near average and possible a little above towards the end. Might give the dafs a little nudge although as mentioned a little rain might help.

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening Folks! So much energy to the western Atlantic basin with Hurricane Matthew  leaving the Uk high and dry just literally...! The Scandi High is a result of the major hurricane across the Atlantic,,,,,,and until Matthew does is thing in the Atlantic models will be dearly confused,,,,,

[bryan629]

Well well, this makes for some juicy reading.... taken at face value of course. 

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

 

[johnholmes]

hi Anyweather

ref this part of your post above

The Scandi High is a result of the major hurricane across the Atlantic,,,

Hardly true as the upper ridge was there before the lump of convection leaving Africa became what it is now, or am I totally mistaken?

[feb1991blizzard]

13 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

hi Anyweather

ref this part of your post above

The Scandi High is a result of the major hurricane across the Atlantic,,,

Hardly true as the upper ridge was there before the lump of convection leaving Africa became what it is now, or am I totally mistaken?

Yes, surely no scandi high can be as a result of a hurricane, just as a matter of interest John, some believe that a more active hurricane season can result in more blocking in winter, I would say very tenious link at best bet bow to superior knowledge, whats your opinion?

[knocker]

The EPS tonight is not supporting the general earlier idea of pattern retrogression and so with the trough remaining over eastern Europe and the subsiding HP much more adjacent to the UK the upper flow gradually veers SW albeit the temps possible still a little below average. Still dry in the south but systems could impact the NW.

[johnholmes]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, surely no scandi high can be as a result of a hurricane, just as a matter of interest John, some believe that a more active hurricane season can result in more blocking in winter, I would say very tenious link at best bet bow to superior knowledge, whats your opinion?

hi feb1991...

Being honest about this I have no idea one way or the other. Perhaps it comes from the idea of hurricanes tending, as now, to assist in building heights in the arctic region. Not as simple as that though as Tamara has indicated above.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, johnholmes said:

hi feb1991...

Being honest about this I have no idea one way or the other. Perhaps it comes from the idea of hurricanes tending, as now, to assist in building heights in the arctic region. Not as simple as that though as Tamara has indicated above.

Thanks, sorry never read above post due to getting back from pub drunk, I thought the theory was heat transported from tropics to Arctic but hurricanes fizzle out or just become so moderated that I thought they would only very slightly warm up the sea at our latitude so would of thought negligeable effect at best, thanks anyway.

[summer blizzard]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, surely no scandi high can be as a result of a hurricane, just as a matter of interest John, some believe that a more active hurricane season can result in more blocking in winter, I would say very tenious link at best bet bow to superior knowledge, whats your opinion?

There's a correlation between seasons with high ACE values and Ozone transport (-AO indicator). Fortunately even if we have no more formation, Matthew and Nicole will ensure that our season ACE will be at least 120% of average.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, summer blizzard said:

There's a correlation between seasons with high ACE values and Ozone transport (-AO indicator). Fortunately even if we have no more formation, Matthew and Nicole will ensure that our season ACE will be at least 120% of average.

Thanks.

[Frosty.]

Our best chance of october cold would be from a polar / arctic maritime blast and I found a few interesting GEFS 12z perturbations which show cold potential..hopefully we will have our first cold weather before this month is over.

[Mucka]

Indian Summer?

 

Or Autumnal chill?

Edited October 8, 2016 by Mucka

[knocker]

Today

Fine and dry in most places but with the trough to the east having some influence we see some backing of the streamlines and thus cloudier in the east with a chance  of some light showers, Fairly cool, particularly along the east coast.

The GFS this morning is a bit of a horror story and frankly I think needs treating with great caution.

The energy shooting out of Canada, coupled with the upper low to our east combine to undercut ()and limit the regression of the HP to form a large area of low pressure to the south west/south of the UK portending some quite unpleasant and very windy weather as the week progresses with the UK the filling inthe sandwich between the HP and LP. At this stage I don't believe a word of it although there may well be some credence to an increase in the influence of the Atlantic troughing as the ecm made some hints towards this last night but not this scenario. Not much point in looking too far ahead methinks.

[Newberryone]

21 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Indian Summer?

 

Or Autumnal chill?

In terms of reliability my money's on the former. Should this be the case expect many more references to Knockers daffs in the days ahead..

[knocker]

Well I suppose one had better not be too hasty here as the GEFS has the Atlantic trough disrupting proceedings as well ending with this N/S scenario. Meanwhile the WAA into the Arctic continues apace.

Edited October 8, 2016 by knocker

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Newberryone said:

in terms of reliability my money's on the former

Did anyone order an Indian?.. 

 

Edited October 8, 2016 by Frosty.

[knocker]

Shows one shouldn't be too hasty as the ecm is also developing the Atlantic trough and stopping any retrogression

[Frosty.]

Just now, knocker said:

Shows one shouldn't be too hasty as the ecm is also developing the Atlantic trough and stopping any retrogression

Thankfully it's only October, plenty of time for retrogression when it counts!

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Thankfully it's only October, plenty of time for retrogression when it counts!

I just mentioned that to Sidney

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

I just mentioned that to Sidney

Sidneys cousin is happy about waiting for retrogression until winter!

[Polar Maritime]

And back to sensible discussion please..

Edited October 8, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[carinthian]

Morning all , back in the land of Lederhosen and thigh slapping ! A bit surprised to see how much snow on the Austrian Alps, a good covering down to 2000m level. The early Autumn feel continues here for the next few days or so. Our Snow portal indicates some upper cooling again in the easterly flow come Tues/ Wednesday with some further snowfall in Upper Austria/ Salzburgland above about 1650m. Beyond mid-week the percentage value remains firm on below average temps for the 10 day time scale in these parts anyway. The dominant feature being the Scandinavian High pressure and as yet there is no major game changes/ developments to remove its influence, but no doubt the final course looks like retrogression/ or Atlantic trough distruption. Things stay very much in this pattern until mid-week at least for much of Europe.Beyond that the jury is sitting this out, although longer term European models indicate some warming up, but could be transient with fairly low confidence levels shown in the portal. Anyway all nice weather for getting out..

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all , back in the land of Lederhosen and thigh slapping ! A bit surprised to see how much snow on the Austrian Alps, a good covering down to 2000m level. The early Autumn feel continues here for the next few days or so. Our Snow portal indicates some upper cooling again in the easterly flow come Tues/ Wednesday with some further snowfall in Upper Austria/ Salzburgland above about 1650m. Beyond mid-week the percentage value remains firm on below average temps for the 10 day time scale in these parts anyway. The dominant feature being the Scandinavian High pressure and as yet there is no major game changes/ developments to remove its influence, but no doubt the final course looks like retrogression/ or Atlantic trough distruption. Things stay very much in this pattern until mid-week at least for much of Europe.Beyond that the jury is sitting this out, although longer term European models indicate some warming up, but could be transient with fairly low confidence levels shown in the portal. Anyway all nice weather for getting out..

Beware of the Euro slug

[Man With Beard]

Well the 12Zs showed the idea last night and now some of 00Zs run with it - a low in the Atlantic fails to connect with low heights over Europe, it therefore stalls, prevents retrogression and eventually the northern blocking pattern collapses - and yes, if this all happens in a particular place we get a slightly unexpected Indian summer with 70F back on the cards!!!

I'd say this just casts doubt on the longevity of the northern block, no more - long way to go with this one.

[carinthian]

Yes, could go a long way with this one. Not sure how the models will handle things with so many unknown factors to take into account, namely, the final exit of hurricane Mathew, the almost record amount of open water in the Arctic Ocean for this time of year and rather sluggish Stratosphere warming and under firing zonal jet. But one things one sure we still have a strong Scandinavian high dictating all of European weather at the moment.

C