Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[Summer Sun]

11 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

The plot thickens! That forecast shows the UK getting steadily colder throughout the season, I wonder what their thinking is.

It does mention an SSW leading to late season cold

"Because of the weak stratospheric polar vortex, there is also an increasingly good change of a sudden stratospheric warming sometime within the next 4–6 weeks that would ramp up the cold risks later in the winter"

[Summer Sun]

What sort of impacts could this have on the UK?

 

[Bristawl Si]

I thought the Winter was going to be "front-loaded" re cold.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

I thought the Winter was going to be "front-loaded" re cold.

So did I - it would be interesting to hear Ian Fergusson's view on this as he was one of those arguing that front-loading was the pattern that the Met Office saw most strongly for this winter.

[MidnightSnow]

If I read "It's not even winter yet!" in the model thread one more time.. 

 

[March]

That soon becomes "it's the 25th February". Eventually the rampers give up at about 15th April. 

[Seasonal Trim]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the excitement in the MOD thread at the moment is going to wane and wane over the next 7 to 10 days until they realize the models have led them up the garden path again. 

[pegg24]

4 minutes ago, Nizzer said:

I'm going to go out on a limb and say the excitement in the MOD thread at the moment is going to wane and wane over the next 7 to 10 days until they realize the models have led them up the garden path again. 

It is laughable at times on there. one minute 1962 1963 46 and 47 next they say charts like Dec 15 now. lol

[iapennell]

8 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

What sort of impacts could this have on the UK?

 

Westerly AAM pumped polewards leading to a strong Jet-stream: Could this mean December 2016 is NOT going to have lots of frost and snow as some anticipate but instead a good dose of mild stiff Ferrel Westerlies bringing their buddy Wet Wet Wet ( )!!

[DAVID SNOW]

5 minutes ago, iapennell said:

Westerly AAM pumped polewards leading to a strong Jet-stream: Could this mean December 2016 is NOT going to have lots of frost and snow as some anticipate but instead a good dose of mild stiff Ferrel Westerlies bringing their buddy Wet Wet Wet ( )!!

No.

[weathergeek]

I've been following this forum for 5yrs (still know little but enough to know what to look for!) I was wondering if there had ever been a time where a snowy set up has been spotted say, 10 days (or even 7?!) away and literally got closer day by day and actually happened?! 

Alternatively, what's the shortest notice people have seen to a decent snow event?

I started on here in Winter 2011 in the hope I could see a repeat of 2010 (lol!) and have seen many snow events chased and not happened so wondered if anyone else could answer the above questions, genuinely interested?!

Ta!! 

[Hotspur62]

28 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

I've been following this forum for 5yrs (still know little but enough to know what to look for!) I was wondering if there had ever been a time where a snowy set up has been spotted say, 10 days (or even 7?!) away and literally got closer day by day and actually happened?! 

Alternatively, what's the shortest notice people have seen to a decent snow event?

I started on here in Winter 2011 in the hope I could see a repeat of 2010 (lol!) and have seen many snow events chased and not happened so wondered if anyone else could answer the above questions, genuinely interested?!

Ta!! 

Thats funny i joined at the same time as you as i wanted to improve my knowledge on weather patterns etc. I must confess i am on here mostly from Nov-Apr in the search for snow as i love the snow(it brings out the kid in us doesnt it?) and throughout this period i am struggling to remember a time when snow has been nailed on from 7-10 days away!!Being an island makes it all the more difficult to forecast i think.Once you get to within 48hrs of snow being forecast you can start to have more confidence but even then many have still been left disappointed.Makes it all the more magical when it happens i suppose

[weathergeek]

37 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

Thats funny i joined at the same time as you as i wanted to improve my knowledge on weather patterns etc. I must confess i am on here mostly from Nov-Apr in the search for snow as i love the snow(it brings out the kid in us doesnt it?) and throughout this period i am struggling to remember a time when snow has been nailed on from 7-10 days away!!Being an island makes it all the more difficult to forecast i think.Once you get to within 48hrs of snow being forecast you can start to have more confidence but even then many have still been left disappointed.Makes it all the more magical when it happens i suppose

Hello! Yes I'm a Winter Season visitor too, lol! No, this i's the thing, I don't think I can recall seeing a snow event creep towards us day by day from 7-10d out so just thought I'd ask to see if anyone could give a time where it did happen! I've often heard that some of the best snow comes from last minute pop-up events!

And yes I agree to snow bringing out the child in you - I had so many snow days off school in the 80''s so it's psychologically linked to the excitement of that I think, lol!

Well of my 5yrs of watching here, this season has definitely started off the best so far so fingers crossed this one is better that the last dismal few!!x

[swfc]

6 hours ago, weathergeek said:

Hello! Yes I'm a Winter Season visitor too, lol! No, this i's the thing, I don't think I can recall seeing a snow event creep towards us day by day from 7-10d out so just thought I'd ask to see if anyone could give a time where it did happen! I've often heard that some of the best snow comes from last minute pop-up events!

And yes I agree to snow bringing out the child in you - I had so many snow days off school in the 80''s so it's psychologically linked to the excitement of that I think, lol!

Well of my 5yrs of watching here, this season has definitely started off the best so far so fingers crossed this one is better that the last dismal few!!x

hi.during the 70s there were several episodes during the winters that even then were forecast a week or so in advance

1978 -82 saw some fantastic cold periods and i remember feb and the beeb forecasting bitter easterlies which arrived with incredible cold and snow.tbh the forecasts and charts then looked smoother and more straight  forward.todays climate and nhp seems always to be spoilt by shortwaves ete .

[Gavin Hannah]

I believe 09/10 was forecast about 5 days out???

[mountain shadow]

Plenty of blocking about, as ever its in the wrong place for snow for us.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 realistic looking FI's from GFS, 

18Z  00Z

[SteveB]

I think it's safe to say we are seeing a swing away from the blocked cold start to December.

We are always going to find the route to real cold weather difficult in this country as the default (and is a strong default) is South to South Westerlies.

 

[MP-R]

6 minutes ago, SteveB said:

I think it's safe to say we are seeing a swing away from the blocked cold start to December.

We are always going to find the route to real cold weather difficult in this country as the default (and is a strong default) is South to South Westerlies.

 

Don't give up hope SteveB. Resigning to the belief we'll only get SWerlies is very simplistic, our monthly averages suggest otherwise. Yes, our weather will most likely come from the Atlantic at least from mid October to early January but that opens a whole lot of options. I'd personally prefer the complications earlier on in the winter with a proper onslaught from Christmas onwards.

[Gavin Hannah]

Indeed, the next 7  - 10 days is what I would call 'Meh'.  Not mild mush, not a beasterly but something in between and feeling cold, especially up north. The key time frame in my mind is next weekend. Whatever the models are showing for the first two weeks in December next weekend is likely going to make or break Xmas. Even then, an Easterly could still sneak up on us.

[Hocus Pocus]

I just don't see any cold spell per se visting these shores anytime soon regardless of the favourable NH pattern. If it can go wrong it will go wrong for this little part of the world. Heights are far to robust to our south and the stubborn Siberian high has hindered rather than helped us.

Until we see changes in these two areas then fleeting cold snaps via either surface conditions or a quick bite of the cherry is all we can hope for. The question is how long before these alleged favourable NH synoptics break down to something more traditional?

[MP-R]

Just now, Gavin Hannah said:

Indeed, the next 7  - 10 days is what I would call 'Meh'.  Not mild mush, not a beasterly but something in between and feeling cold, especially up north. The key time frame in my mind is next weekend. Whatever the models are showing for the first two weeks in December next weekend is likely going to make or break Xmas. Even then, an Easterly could still sneak up on us.

Indeed! I think a December 2002 / December 2003 type spell is coming up where temperatures hovered between 0 and 7. Feeling raw despite nothing especially cold. Not terribly exciting but at least it'll be drier after the recent deluges.

[Seasonality]

16 hours ago, MidnightSnow said:

If I read "It's not even winter yet!" in the model thread one more time.. 

 

I feel the same way when I see people talking nonsense and engaging in collective wrist slashing and having ridiculous expectations of the UK weather. It is why people use that phrase.

[Seasonality]

2 hours ago, swfc said:

hi.during the 70s there were several episodes during the winters that even then were forecast a week or so in advance

1978 -82 saw some fantastic cold periods and i remember feb and the beeb forecasting bitter easterlies which arrived with incredible cold and snow.tbh the forecasts and charts then looked smoother and more straight  forward.todays climate and nhp seems always to be spoilt by shortwaves ete .

I don't think it works like that TBH. Back in the day the beeb weather charts didn't have the same resolution as the charts we view now and of course a good cold spell looks more smooth because it actually happened. When you're talking about a virtual, 'predicted' cold spell that doesn't actually eventuate then of course you'll have 'shortwaves' etc.

[Summer Sun]

Netweather's forecast for the next month taking us to Dec 20th

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=monthly;sess=